When does Lukko vs Ilves start?

AI verdict

AI pick Ilves win probability ~53% best odds 2.80

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Ilves. Full breakdown below.

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Finland. Liiga International

01.09.2026 15:30 UTC

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

01.09.2026 15:30 UTC

Not started

Finland. Liiga

Lukko - Ilves

International Hockey

Lukko

- : -

Not started

Ilves

Lukko take on Ilves on September 1, 2026 in the Finland. Liiga, International.

These sides have met 3 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Ilves — 53%

1 · Lukko47.3%

2 · Ilves52.7%

Model estimate: win Lukko 47.3%, win Ilves 52.7%. Model favourite — Ilves.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lukko - Ilves September 1, 2026

Hockey math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Lukko. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.30 / X 3.75 / 2 2.80

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.9%

1 41.1%

X 25.2%

2 33.7%

Odds source: Fonbet line. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 P1 2.25 ↑ 2.30

1X2 X 4.20 ↓ 4.15

1X2 P2 2.60 → 2.60

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Lukko

5-5WWLWLLLLWW

scored 2.2conceded 1.8

Ilves

4-6WWWLLLLLLW

scored 2.5conceded 2.9

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Match center

Start 01.09.2026 15:30 UTC

Market 1 41.1% @ 2.30 / X 25.2% @ 3.75 / 2 33.7% @ 2.80

Form 6 matches

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Ilves 53%

💹 Market Lukko 41%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

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Match center

Lukko - Ilves

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 3/3 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

Market and Glicko

Hockey math model. The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Lukko 41.0% 47.3% market favourite

Draw 22.7% -

Ilves 36.3% 52.7% Glicko contrarian

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Hockey math model

P1 / P2 47.3% / 52.7% probabilities

Rating 1,181 / 1,543 Lukko / Ilves

RD 220 / 222 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 740-1,621 / 1,098-1,987 strength interval

The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.80 Fonbet · value +47.4% · model 52.7%

X 3.75 Fonbet · line only

1 2.30 Fonbet · weak value +8.9% · model 47.3%

Handicap

2 -1 1.40 Fonbet · line only

2 +1 3.25 Fonbet · line only

2 0 2.05 Fonbet · line only

1 -1 2.60 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 3.5 1.20 Fonbet · line only

Over 4 1.30 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome	Fonbet
	1.28 78.1%
	1.22 82.0%
	1.11 90.1%
	2.60 38.5%
	2.95 33.9%
	3.80 26.3%
	4.10 24.4%
	1.72 58.1%
	3.25 30.8%
	3.45 29.0%
	4.70 21.3%
	1.40 71.4%
	1.33 75.2%
	1.18 84.8%
	1.15 87.0%
	2.05 48.8%

Total

Outcome	Fonbet
Over 3.5	1.20 83.3%
Over 4	1.30 76.9%
Over 4.5	1.55 64.5%
Over 5	1.80 55.6%
Over 5.5	2.12 47.2%
Over 6	2.70 37.0%
Over 6.5	3.15 31.8%
Over 7	4.20 23.8%
Over 7.5	4.60 21.7%
Under 3.5	3.75 26.7%
Under 4	3.20 31.3%
Under 4.5	2.25 44.4%
Under 5	1.95 51.3%
Under 5.5	1.68 59.5%
Under 6	1.40 71.4%
Under 6.5	1.30 76.9%
Under 7	1.17 85.5%
Under 7.5	1.14 87.7%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Fonbet
	2.30 43.5%
X	3.75 26.7%
	2.80 35.7%

Match center

Lukko

L L L

21.08 14:00 UTC+0 World: Club Friendlies

Lukko 3:8 Yassyat 🇫🇮

21.08 14:00 UTC+0 Finland. Friendlies

Lukko 3:8 Essyat

14.08 15:30 UTC+0 World: Club Friendlies

Lukko 2:3 TPS 🇫🇮

0 Wins

3 Losses

2.7 Scored

6.3 Conceded

0% Win percentage

Ilves

D W D

20.08 15:00 UTC+0 World: Club Friendlies

Ilves 0:0 Kalpa 🇫🇮

08.08 09:30 UTC+0 Finland. Friendlies

Ilves 1:0 KhIFK

07.08 15:30 UTC+0 World: Club Friendlies

Ilves 2:2 Tappara 🇫🇮

1 Wins

0 Losses

1.0 Scored

0.7 Conceded

33% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head history: Lukko - Ilves

Lukko

3 matches total

Ilves

Lukko: 2 (66.7%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Ilves: 1 (33.3%)

Biggest win Lukko 4:1 (2026-03-14) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 5 goals (4:1, 2026-03-14) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

7 Goals scored 4

4 Goals conceded 7

Match history

2026-03-14 Liiga 26/27

Lukko 4:1 Ilves

2026-02-17 Liiga 26/27

Ilves 3:2 Lukko

2025-10-04 Liiga 26/27

Lukko 1:0 Ilves

Lukko - Ilves

AI match prediction Lukko - Ilves September 1, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Line movement

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Unlock the full AI analysis

Lukko - Ilves

Match markets

Handicap

Total

Outcome (1X2)

Overall statistics

Match history

More predictions

Frequently asked questions