•Model backs KhK Gomel: probability 51% vs 33% on the line (odds 3.05)
•edge over the line +18 pp — value pick
•Expected score 2:3
•Total: Under 5.5: model expects a total of ~5 goals
•at line 5.5 (odds 1.73)
•Handicap F2 +1: score forecast 2:3 (diff -1) covers the line (odds 1.61).
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
*
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Slavutich Smolensk - HC Gomel August 2, 2026
Hockey math model
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Slavutich Smolensk. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.90 / X 4.20 / 2 3.05
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 9.2%
148.2%
X21.8%
230.0%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⇅
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P11.90→ 1.90
1X2 X4.20→ 4.20
1X2 P23.05→ 3.05
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
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V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.
Form2/2
recent games
H2H0
head-to-head matches
Market3
model / bookmakers
Flashscorematch data
source checked
Oddsmatch data
source checked
Bookiesapimatch data
source checked
Line depthmatch data
source checked
Present in data
MarketFormMatchParticipantsLineMovementOverview
More needed
H2HChampionat, Flashscore
Tournamentespn, Flashscore
Lineup / squadChampionat, goalie report
RefereesChampionat
Market and Glicko
Hockey math model.
The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Slavutich Smolensk48.2%49.3%market favourite
Draw21.8%-
HC Gomel30.0%50.7%Glicko contrarian
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.
Betting snapshot
1X2
23.05
Fonbet · weak value +54.5% · model 50.7%
X4.20
Fonbet · line only
11.90
Fonbet · no value · model 49.3%
Handicap
2 -11.61
Fonbet · line only
2 +13.75
Fonbet · line only
2 02.40
Fonbet · line only
1 -12.18
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 4.51.50
Fonbet · line only
Over 51.70
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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