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Russia. Friendly
Russia. Friendly International
02.08.2026 07:00 UTC Match prediction
02.08.2026 07:00 UTC
Finished

Russia. Friendly

International

Chelmet Chelyabinsk - Yuzhny Ural Orsk

International Hockey
Chelmet Chelyabinsk
Chelmet Chelyabinsk
4 : 0
Finished
Yuzhny Ural Orsk
Yuzhny Ural Orsk

Chelmet Chelyabinsk face Yuzhny Ural Orsk on August 2, 2026 in the Russia. Friendly, International.

PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 50% to win. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Chelmet Chelyabinsk — 50%

1 · Chelmet Chelyabinsk50.2%
2 · Yuzhny Ural Orsk49.8%

Model estimate: win Chelmet Chelyabinsk 50.2%, win Yuzhny Ural Orsk 49.8%. Model favourite — Chelmet Chelyabinsk.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Chelmet Chelyabinsk (odds1.60) Score 3:2 Handicap H2 +1.5 (odds1.75) confidence 50% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Model backs Chelmet Chelyabinsk: probability 50% vs 62% on the line (odds 1.60)
  • • no edge over the line (-12 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 3:2
  • • Handicap F2 +1.5: score forecast 3:2 (diff +1) covers the line (odds 1.75).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Chelmet Chelyabinsk - Yuzhny Ural Orsk August 2, 2026

Hockey math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

  • Glicko: Chelmet Chelyabinsk 50.2% / Yuzhny Ural Orsk 49.8%

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 1.60 ↑ 1.72
1X2 X 4.50 → 4.50
1X2 2 4.30 ↓ 3.60

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 02.08.2026 07:00 UTC
Match center

Chelmet Chelyabinsk - Yuzhny Ural Orsk

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
Form espn, Flashscore, Championat
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament espn, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, goalie report
Referees Championat
Overview Championat
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 4:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line home - 50.2% fact: home hit / ROI 72.0% / Brier 0.496 / LogLoss 0.689
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line home - 50.1% fact: home hit / ROI 72.0% / Brier 0.499 / LogLoss 0.692
Market and Glicko

Hockey math model. The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Chelmet Chelyabinsk 53.8% 50.2% market and model agree
Draw 20.6% -
Yuzhny Ural Orsk 25.7% 49.8%
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Hockey math model
P1 / P2 50.2% / 49.8% probabilities
Rating 1,500 / 1,500 Chelmet Chelyabinsk / Yuzhny Ural Orsk
RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 45 HFA mu: 0.259 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.

Betting snapshot
1X2
X 9.50 Fonbet · line only
1 1.06 Fonbet · no value · model 50.2%
Handicap
2 -1 1.78 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 4.40 Fonbet · line only
2 0 5.00 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 1.92 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 1.5 1.11 Fonbet · line only
Over 2.5 1.08 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.17 85.5%
1.92 52.1%
1.04 96.2%
2.85 35.1%
1.28 78.1%
4.90 20.4%
1.11 90.1%
4.30 23.3%
4.40 22.7%
5.40 18.5%
1.78 56.2%
9.00 11.1%
1.37 73.0%
3.35 29.9%
1.14 87.7%
5.50 18.2%
1.18 84.8%
5.00 20.0%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 1.5 1.11 90.1%
Over 2.5 1.08 92.6%
Over 3.5 1.23 81.3%
Over 4 1.30 76.9%
Over 4.5 6.50 15.4%
Over 5 1.77 56.5%
Over 5.5 10.00 10.0%
Over 6 2.70 37.0%
Over 6.5 8.00 12.5%
Over 7 4.40 22.7%
Over 7.5 4.80 20.8%
Under 1.5 5.50 18.2%
Under 2.5 6.50 15.4%
Under 3.5 3.70 27.0%
Under 4 3.20 31.3%
Under 4.5 1.08 92.6%
Under 5 1.93 51.8%
Under 5.5 1.02 98.0%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
1.06 94.3%
X 9.50 10.5%
32.00 3.1%