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Russia. Friendly
Russia. Friendly International
31.07.2026 16:00 UTC Match prediction
31.07.2026 16:00 UTC
Finished

Russia. Friendly

International

HC Ryazan-VDV - Kristall Saratov

International Hockey
HC Ryazan-VDV
HC Ryazan-VDV
3 : 6
Finished
Kristall Saratov
Kristall Saratov

HC Ryazan-VDV go head-to-head with Kristall Saratov on July 31, 2026 in the Russia. Friendly, International.

PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 50% to win. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 HC Ryazan-VDV — 50%

1 · HC Ryazan-VDV50.2%
2 · Kristall Saratov49.8%

Model estimate: win HC Ryazan-VDV 50.2%, win Kristall Saratov 49.8%. Model favourite — HC Ryazan-VDV.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1HC Ryazan-VDV (odds1.60) Score 3:2 confidence 50% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Model backs KhK Ryazan-VDV: probability 50% vs 62% on the line (odds 1.60)
  • • no edge over the line (-12 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 3:2.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction HC Ryazan-VDV - Kristall Saratov July 31, 2026

Hockey math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like draw.

Line favourite Fonbet: draw. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 4.15 / X 1.40 / 2 7.50
  • Glicko: HC Ryazan-VDV 50.2% / X - / Kristall Saratov 49.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.9%
1 22.1%
X 65.6%
2 12.2%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 1.60 ↓ 1.55
1X2 X 4.50 → 4.50
1X2 2 3.80 ↑ 4.15

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 31.07.2026 16:00 UTC
Market 1 22.1% @ 4.15 / X 65.6% @ 1.40 / 2 12.2% @ 7.50
Match center

HC Ryazan-VDV - Kristall Saratov

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
Form espn, Flashscore, Championat
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament espn, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, goalie report
Referees Championat
Overview Championat
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 3:6
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line home - 50.2% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.504 / LogLoss 0.697
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line home - 50.1% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.501 / LogLoss 0.694
Market and Glicko

Hockey math model. The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
HC Ryazan-VDV 58.2% 50.2% market and model agree
Draw 20.1% -
Kristall Saratov 21.7% 49.8%
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Hockey math model
P1 / P2 50.2% / 49.8% probabilities
Rating 1,500 / 1,500 HC Ryazan-VDV / Kristall Saratov
RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 45 HFA mu: 0.259 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 7.50 Fonbet · weak value +273.4% · model 49.8%
X 1.40 Fonbet · line only
1 4.15 Fonbet · weak value +108.4% · model 50.2%
Handicap
2 -1 2.00 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 5.30 Fonbet · line only
2 0 2.50 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 1.72 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 10.5 2.12 Fonbet · line only
Over 2.5 2.30 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.72 58.1%
7.50 13.3%
2.40 41.7%
3.85 26.0%
4.50 22.2%
8.50 11.8%
5.30 18.9%
9.00 11.1%
2.70 37.0%
9.00 11.1%
2.00 50.0%
1.06 94.3%
1.50 66.7%
1.22 82.0%
1.17 85.5%
1.05 95.2%
1.06 94.3%
2.50 40.0%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 2.5 2.30 43.5%
Over 3.5 4.15 24.1%
Over 4 1.25 80.0%
Over 4.5 4.00 25.0%
Over 5 1.65 60.6%
Over 5.5 5.00 20.0%
Over 6 2.45 40.8%
Over 6.5 9.00 11.1%
Over 7 3.90 25.6%
Over 7.5 4.80 20.8%
Over 8.5 1.37 73.0%
Over 9.5 2.30 43.5%
Over 10.5 2.12 47.2%
Under 2.5 1.55 64.5%
Under 3.5 1.19 84.0%
Under 4 3.55 28.2%
Under 4.5 1.20 83.3%
Under 10.5 1.64 61.0%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
4.15 24.1%
X 1.40 71.4%
7.50 13.3%