•Model backs KhK Kaluga: probability 51% vs 24% on the line (odds 4.20)
•edge over the line +27 pp — value pick
•Expected score 2:3
•Total: Under 5.5: model expects a total of ~5 goals
•at line 5.5 (odds 1.90)
•Handicap F2 +1.5: score forecast 2:3 (diff -1) covers the line (odds 1.80).
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
*
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Magnitka - HC Kaluga August 6, 2026
Hockey math model
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Magnitka. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.55 / X 5.10 / 2 4.20
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 7.9%
159.8%
X18.2%
222.1%
Odds source: Fonbet line. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⇅
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P11.55→ 1.55
1X2 X5.10→ 5.10
1X2 P24.20→ 4.20
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
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V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.
Form1/1
recent games
H2H0
head-to-head matches
Market3
model / bookmakers
Flashscorematch data
source checked
Oddsmatch data
source checked
Bookiesapimatch data
source checked
Line depthmatch data
source checked
Present in data
MarketMatchParticipantsLineMovementOverview
More needed
Formespn, Flashscore, Championat
H2HChampionat, Flashscore
Tournamentespn, Flashscore
Lineup / squadChampionat, goalie report
RefereesChampionat
Market and Glicko
Hockey math model.
The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Magnitka59.8%49.0%market favourite
Draw18.2%-
HC Kaluga22.1%51.0%Glicko contrarian
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Hockey math model
P1 / P249.0% / 51.0%
probabilities
Rating1,500 / 1,739
Magnitka / HC Kaluga
RD350 / 291
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD800-2,200 / 1,157-2,320
strength interval
The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.
Betting snapshot
1X2
24.20
Fonbet · weak value +114.1% · model 51.0%
X5.10
Fonbet · line only
11.55
Fonbet · no value · model 49.0%
Handicap
2 -12.08
Fonbet · line only
2 +15.20
Fonbet · line only
2 03.30
Fonbet · line only
1 -11.67
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 3.51.15
Fonbet · line only
Over 41.20
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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KhK Lida