Russia. Friendly
Rubin take on Gornyak-UGMK on August 1, 2026 in the Russia. Friendly, International.
PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 50% to win. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Rubin — 50%
Model estimate: win Rubin 50.2%, win Gornyak-UGMK 49.8%. Model favourite — Rubin.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Gornyak-UGMK.
For reference
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Hockey math model. The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 1.58 63.3% | |
| 1.45 69.0% | |
| 1.28 78.1% | |
| 3.60 27.8% | |
| 4.00 25.0% | |
| 5.00 20.0% | |
| 1.11 90.1% | |
| 2.25 44.4% | |
| 2.55 39.2% | |
| 3.35 29.9% | |
| 3.75 26.7% | |
| 4.90 20.4% | |
| 9.00 11.1% | |
| 1.25 80.0% | |
| 1.20 83.3% | |
| 1.13 88.5% | |
| 5.60 17.9% | |
| 1.55 64.5% |
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 1.38 72.5% |
| Over 3.5 | 1.23 81.3% |
| Over 4 | 1.30 76.9% |
| Over 4.5 | 1.55 64.5% |
| Over 5 | 1.77 56.5% |
| Over 5.5 | 2.10 47.6% |
| Over 6 | 2.70 37.0% |
| Over 6.5 | 3.10 32.3% |
| Over 7 | 4.40 22.7% |
| Over 7.5 | 4.80 20.8% |
| Over 8.5 | 8.50 11.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 2.80 35.7% |
| Under 3.5 | 3.75 26.7% |
| Under 4 | 3.20 31.3% |
| Under 4.5 | 2.30 43.5% |
| Under 5 | 1.93 51.8% |
| Under 5.5 | 1.65 60.6% |
| Under 6 | 1.40 71.4% |
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 2.90 34.5% | |
| X | 4.50 22.2% |
| 1.95 51.3% |
Full head-to-head historyRubin - Gornyak-UGMK
The Rubin - Gornyak-UGMK breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
