•Model backs MKhK Spartak Moskva: probability 51% vs 41% on the line (odds 2.45)
•edge over the line +10 pp — value pick
•Expected score 2:3
•Total: Under 6: model expects a total of ~5 goals
•at line 6 (odds 1.75)
•Handicap F2 +0: score forecast 2:3 (diff -1) covers the line (odds 1.92).
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
*
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction SKA-1946 - MHC Spartak Moscow August 4, 2026
Hockey math model
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: SKA-1946. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.25 / X 4.40 / 2 2.45
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 8.0%
141.2%
X21.1%
237.8%
Odds source: Fonbet line. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⇅
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P12.25→ 2.25
1X2 X4.40→ 4.40
1X2 P22.45→ 2.45
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
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V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.
Form3/2
recent games
H2H0
head-to-head matches
Market3
model / bookmakers
Flashscorematch data
source checked
Oddsmatch data
source checked
Bookiesapimatch data
source checked
Line depthmatch data
source checked
Present in data
MarketFormMatchParticipantsLineMovementOverview
More needed
H2HChampionat, Flashscore
Tournamentespn, Flashscore
Lineup / squadChampionat, goalie report
RefereesChampionat
Market and Glicko
Hockey math model.
The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
SKA-194641.2%48.7%market favourite
Draw21.1%-
MHC Spartak Moscow37.8%51.3%Glicko contrarian
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Hockey math model
P1 / P248.7% / 51.3%
probabilities
Rating1,500 / 1,762
SKA-1946 / MHC Spartak Moscow
RD226 / 254
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD1,047-1,953 / 1,253-2,271
strength interval
The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.
Betting snapshot
1X2
22.45
Fonbet · value +25.6% · model 51.3%
X4.40
Fonbet · line only
12.25
Fonbet · weak value +9.7% · model 48.7%
Handicap
2 -11.45
Fonbet · line only
2 +12.80
Fonbet · line only
2 01.92
Fonbet · line only
1 -12.55
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 3.51.12
Fonbet · line only
Over 41.15
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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