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Preseason tournament. Omsk
Preseason tournament. Omsk
03.08.2026 13:00 UTC
03.08.2026 13:00 UTC
Not started

Preseason tournament. Omsk

Tolpar - MHC Molot

Hockey
T
Tolpar
- : -
Not started
M
MHC Molot

Tolpar go head-to-head with MHC Molot on August 3, 2026 in the Preseason tournament. Omsk.

Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Tolpar — 50%

1 · Tolpar50.2%
2 · MHC Molot49.8%

Model estimate: win Tolpar 50.2%, win MHC Molot 49.8%. Model favourite — Tolpar.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Tolpar (odds1.30) Score 3:2 Under 6.5 (odds1.85) Handicap H2 +2.5 (odds1.85) confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Tolpar 🇷🇺: probability 50% vs 77% on the line (odds 1.30)
  • • no edge over the line (-27 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 3:2
  • • Total: Under 6.5: model expects a total of ~5 goals
  • • at line 6.5 (odds 1.85)
  • • Handicap F2 +2.5: score forecast 3:2 (diff +1) covers the line (odds 1.85).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Tolpar - MHC Molot August 3, 2026

Hockey math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Tolpar. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.30 / X 6.30 / 2 6.40

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.4%
1 70.9%
X 14.6%
2 14.4%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1 1.30 → 1.30
1X2 X 6.30 → 6.30
1X2 P2 6.40 → 6.40

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 03.08.2026 13:00 UTC
Market 1 70.9% @ 1.30 / X 14.6% @ 6.30 / 2 14.4% @ 6.40
Match center

Tolpar - MHC Molot

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
Form espn, Flashscore, Championat
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament espn, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, goalie report
Referees Championat
Overview Championat
Market and Glicko

Hockey math model. The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Tolpar 71.0% 50.2% market and model agree
Draw 14.6% -
MHC Molot 14.4% 49.8%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Hockey math model
P1 / P2 50.2% / 49.8% probabilities
Rating 1,500 / 1,500 Tolpar / MHC Molot
RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 45 HFA mu: 0.259 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 6.40 Fonbet · weak value +218.6% · model 49.8%
X 6.30 Fonbet · line only
1 1.30 Fonbet · no value · model 50.2%
Handicap
2 -1 3.00 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 1.35 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 4.5 1.20 Fonbet · line only
Over 5 1.25 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.35 74.1%
1.60 62.5%
1.85 54.1%
2.30 43.5%
2.75 36.4%
3.70 27.0%
4.10 24.4%
5.20 19.2%
5.70 17.5%
3.00 33.3%
2.20 45.5%
1.85 54.1%
1.55 64.5%
1.40 71.4%
1.23 81.3%
1.19 84.0%
1.13 88.5%
1.10 90.9%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 4.5 1.20 83.3%
Over 5 1.25 80.0%
Over 5.5 1.43 69.9%
Over 6 1.58 63.3%
Over 6.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 7 2.20 45.5%
Over 7.5 2.50 40.0%
Over 8 3.30 30.3%
Over 8.5 3.70 27.0%
Over 9 5.00 20.0%
Over 9.5 5.50 18.2%
Under 4.5 4.05 24.7%
Under 5 3.55 28.2%
Under 5.5 2.60 38.5%
Under 6 2.25 44.4%
Under 6.5 1.85 54.1%
Under 7 1.60 62.5%
Under 7.5 1.45 69.0%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
1.30 76.9%
X 6.30 15.9%
6.40 15.6%
Match center

Full head-to-head historyTolpar - MHC Molot

Tolpar
0 matches total
MHC Molot
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history