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Start
04.08.2026 07:00 UTC
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Prematch data
✓Line
✓Form
✓H2H
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04.08.2026 07:00 UTC
Finished
World: Club Friendlies
Tolpar 🇷🇺 - MHC Molot
4
:
1
Finished
Tolpar 🇷🇺 meet MHC Molot on August 4, 2026 in the World: Club Friendlies.
Recent form (W-D-L): Tolpar 🇷🇺 1-0-0, MHC Molot 0-0-1. These sides have met 1 time recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 50% to win. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Tolpar 🇷🇺 — 50%
Model estimate: win Tolpar 🇷🇺 50.2%, win MHC Molot 49.8%. Model favourite — Tolpar 🇷🇺.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Tolpar 🇷🇺 (odds1.30)
Score 3:2
Under 6.5
(odds1.85) ✓
Handicap H2 +2.5
(odds1.85) ✗
confidence 50%
✓ outcome correct
- • Model backs Tolpar 🇷🇺: probability 50% vs 77% on the line (odds 1.30)
- • no edge over the line (-27 pp) — informational only
- • Expected score 3:2
- • Total: Under 6.5: model expects a total of ~5 goals
- • at line 6.5 (odds 1.85)
- • Handicap F2 +2.5: score forecast 3:2 (diff +1) covers the line (odds 1.85).
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Tolpar 🇷🇺 - MHC Molot August 4, 2026
Hockey math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
- Glicko: Tolpar 🇷🇺 50.2% / MHC Molot 49.8%
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1
1.30
→ 1.30
1X2 X
6.30
→ 6.30
1X2 2
6.40
↑ 6.50
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Tolpar 🇷🇺 - MHC Molot
Form
1/1
recent games
H2H
1
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
Flashscore
match data
source checked
Odds
match data
source checked
Bookiesapi
match data
source checked
Line depth
match data
source checked
Present in data
Market
Match
Participants
Line
Movement
More needed
Form
espn, Flashscore, Championat
H2H
Championat, Flashscore
Tournament
espn, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
Championat, goalie report
Referees
Championat
Overview
Championat
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score
4:1
Events
0
Statistics
0
Lineups
0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Option
Signal
Prediction / actual
Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form
home - 50.2% fact: home
hit / ROI 30.0% / Brier 0.496 / LogLoss 0.689
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form
home - 50.1% fact: home
hit / ROI 30.0% / Brier 0.499 / LogLoss 0.692
Market and Glicko
Hockey math model. The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Tolpar 🇷🇺
71.1%
50.2%
market and model agree
Draw
14.7%
-
MHC Molot
14.2%
49.8%
1X2: 1 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Hockey math model
P1 / P2
50.2% / 49.8%
probabilities
Rating
1,500 / 1,500
Tolpar 🇷🇺 / MHC Molot
RD
350 / 350
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
800-2,200 / 800-2,200
strength interval
HFA: 45
HFA mu: 0.259
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score
Best value: no value found
The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.
Betting snapshot
1X2
X
7.20
Fonbet · line only
1
1.10
Fonbet · no value · model 50.2%
Handicap
2 -1
2.15
Fonbet · line only
2 0
9.00
Fonbet · line only
1 -1
1.63
Fonbet · line only
1 0
1.05
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.07
Fonbet · line only
Over 3.5
1.10
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Handicap
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 1.63 61.4% | |
| 2.12 47.2% | |
| 2.15 46.5% | |
| 7.60 13.2% | |
| 3.65 27.4% | |
| 7.80 12.8% | |
| 7.00 14.3% | |
| 2.15 46.5% | |
| 1.64 61.0% | |
| 1.62 61.7% | |
| 1.06 94.3% | |
| 1.25 80.0% | |
| 1.05 95.2% | |
| 1.20 83.3% | |
| 1.17 85.5% | |
| 1.13 88.5% | |
| 1.10 90.9% | |
| 9.00 11.1% |
Total
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 1.07 93.5% |
| Over 3.5 | 1.10 90.9% |
| Over 4 | 1.12 89.3% |
| Over 4.5 | 1.23 81.3% |
| Over 5 | 1.35 74.1% |
| Over 5.5 | 1.65 60.6% |
| Over 6 | 1.80 55.6% |
| Over 6.5 | 4.40 22.7% |
| Over 7 | 2.65 37.7% |
| Over 7.5 | 8.50 11.8% |
| Over 8 | 4.15 24.1% |
| Over 8.5 | 4.60 21.7% |
| Over 9 | 5.00 20.0% |
| Over 9.5 | 5.50 18.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 6.70 14.9% |
| Under 3.5 | 5.90 17.0% |
| Under 4 | 5.30 18.9% |
| Under 4.5 | 3.70 27.0% |
Outcome (1X2)
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 1.10 90.9% | |
| X | 7.20 13.9% |
| 34.00 2.9% |
Match center
Tolpar 🇷🇺
W
Tolpar 🇷🇺
4:1
MKhK Molot 🇷🇺
MKhK Molot 🇷🇺
1
Wins
0
Losses
4.0
Scored
1.0
Conceded
100%
Win percentage
MHC Molot
L
MHC Molot
1:4
Tolpar 🇷🇺
Tolpar 🇷🇺
0
Wins
1
Losses
1.0
Scored
4.0
Conceded
0%
Win percentage
Match center
Full head-to-head historyTolpar 🇷🇺 - MHC Molot
Tolpar 🇷🇺
1
matches total
Tolpar 🇷🇺: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
MHC Molot: 0 (0%)
Biggest win
Tolpar 🇷🇺 4:1 (02.08 13:00 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
5 goals (4:1, 02.08 13:00 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
Tolpar 🇷🇺
4:1
MKhK Molot 🇷🇺
Unlock the full match prediction
The Tolpar 🇷🇺 - MHC Molot breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form