•Model backs Canada U20: probability 50% vs 54% on the line (odds 1.85)
•no edge over the line (-4 pp) — informational only
•Expected score 3:2
•Total: Under 6.5: model expects a total of ~5 goals
•at line 6.5 (odds 1.85).
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
*
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Canada U20 - USA U20 August 1, 2026
Hockey math model
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Canada U20. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.00 / X 4.50 / 2 2.80
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 7.9%
146.3%
X20.6%
233.1%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⇅
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P11.90↑ 2.00
1X2 X4.80↓ 4.50
1X2 P22.90↓ 2.80
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
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V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.
Form2/2
recent games
H2H0
head-to-head matches
Market3
model / bookmakers
Flashscorematch data
source checked
Oddsmatch data
source checked
Bookiesapimatch data
source checked
Line depthmatch data
source checked
Present in data
MarketFormMatchParticipantsLineMovementOverview
More needed
H2HChampionat, Flashscore
Tournamentespn, Flashscore
Lineup / squadChampionat, goalie report
RefereesChampionat
Market and Glicko
Hockey math model.
The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Canada U2046.3%50.5%market and model agree
Draw20.6%-
USA U2033.1%49.5%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Hockey math model
P1 / P250.5% / 49.5%
probabilities
Rating1,687 / 1,655
Canada U20 / USA U20
RD282 / 239
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD1,123-2,251 / 1,177-2,133
strength interval
The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.
Betting snapshot
1X2
22.80
Fonbet · weak value +38.6% · model 49.5%
X4.50
Fonbet · line only
12.00
Fonbet · no value · model 50.5%
Handicap
2 -11.60
Fonbet · line only
2 +13.30
Fonbet · line only
2 02.20
Fonbet · line only
1 -12.20
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 4.51.20
Fonbet · line only
Over 51.27
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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