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AI verdict

AI pick Rublev A win probability ~64% confidence High best odds 1.58

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Rublev A. Full breakdown below.

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ATP Cincinnati, USA Men Singles
ATP Cincinnati, USA Men Singles International
3rd round 18.08.2026 14:00 UTC

Rublev A - Borges N

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis ATP Cincinnati, USA Men Singles
ATP Cincinnati, USA Men Singles 3rd round hard 18.08.2026 14:00 UTC Not started
18.08.2026 14:00 UTC 3rd round Not started
Rublev A
Rublev A Russia
Rank #47 Elo 1045
52Average Form
W W L W W W L W
Borges N
Borges N Portugal
Rank #18 Elo 2230
64Average Form
W W W L W L W W
-:-
Stadium: Lindner Femili Tennis Senter. Coverage: hard
Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Rublev A Borges N
Win % 64% 57.1%
Hard % 63.6% 58.1%
Clay % 65.8% 59.6%
Grass % 62.2% 43.3%
Deciding set % 60.1% 62.8%
Tie-breaks % 49.6% 51.2%
Titles (total) 18 6
Last 10 LLWWWWWLLL WLWWWLWLWW

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

Russia Country Portugal
#47 Rating #18
28 Age 29
188 Height (cm) 185
75 Weight (kg) 78
Right Hand Right
13 Seed 5
hard Coverage hard
2 H2H 2

Serve and return stats

Rublev A Borges N
Aces per match 6.58 6.62
Double faults per match 2 2.56
Breaks per match 1.98 1.59

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

Form over the last year

Rublev A
62% 34 / 55
62% 34 / 55
Sintetika
no data
clay
16 iz 22
grass
0 iz 2
hard
18 iz 31
Borges N
53% 31 / 58
53% 31 / 58
Sintetika
no data
clay
8 iz 16
grass
5 iz 9
hard
18 iz 33

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Nuno Borges
Rank:47 Elo: 1045
W W L W W W L W
Andrey Rublev
Rank:18 Elo: 2230
W W W L W L W W
Elo favourite:Rublev A (edge +1185 Elo)

Hard

Nuno BorgesAndrey Rublev
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 55.6% 10 / 18 Matches 60.0% 9 / 15 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 53.1% 17 / 32 Matches 52.0% 13 / 25 Matches

Clay

Nuno BorgesAndrey Rublev
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 46.7% 7 / 15 Matches 72.2% 13 / 18 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 46.7% 7 / 15 Matches 72.2% 13 / 18 Matches

Grass

Nuno BorgesAndrey Rublev
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 57.1% 4 / 7 Matches 0.0% 0 / 1 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 57.1% 4 / 7 Matches 0.0% 0 / 1 Matches

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Nuno Borges Andrey Rublev
H2H wins 0 (0.0%) 5 (100.0%)
Sets 1 (8.3%) 11 (91.7%)
Wins this year 52.1% 25 / 48 Matches 64.3% 27 / 42 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 51.6% 32 / 62 Matches 60.4% 32 / 53 Matches
Current rank 47 18

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Nuno Borges Andrey Rublev
Prize money (career) $4,106,367 USD $30,450,868 USD
Rating 47 18
Age 29 28
Height 1.85m 1.88m
Weight 78kg 75kg
Playing hand Right-handed Right-handed

Win percentage (match / set)

Nuno Borges Andrey Rublev
Match Wins 52 % 64 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 53 % 65 %
Match Wins (5 Sets) 50 % 71 %
Wins in Straight Sets 38 % 40 %
Wins From Behind 18 % 17 %
Won At Least 1 Set 71 % 81 %
Set 1 Win 48 % 67 %
Set 2 Win 60 % 55 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Head-to-Head Record

Date Tournament Results
May 29 2026 French Open ATP (Clay) Nuno Borges 0 – 3 Andrey Rublev
Apr 6 2026 Monte Carlo ATP (Clay) Nuno Borges 1 – 2 Andrey Rublev
Jan 9 2026 Hong Kong ATP (Hard) Nuno Borges 0 – 2 Andrey Rublev
Feb 19 2025 Doha ATP (Hard) Nuno Borges 0 – 2 Andrey Rublev
Oct 21 2024 Basel ATP (Hard) Nuno Borges 0 – 2 Andrey Rublev

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Nuno Borges Andrey Rublev Match total
Average Games in a Set 10.63 9.83 10.23
Over 6.5 100 % 100 % 100 %
Over 7.5 95 % 94 % 95 %
Over 8.5 93 % 79 % 86 %
Over 9.5 68 % 53 % 61 %
Over 10.5 38 % 24 % 31 %
Over 11.5 38 % 24 % 31 %

Aces

Nuno Borges Andrey Rublev Match total
Aces Per Match 6.58 6.62 13.20
Most Aces in a match 55 % 59 % N/A
1+ 100 % 100 % 100 %
2+ 100 % 82 % 97 %
3+ 83 % 76 % 96 %
4+ 80 % 76 % 93 %
5+ 60 % 62 % 90 %

Breaks

Nuno Borges Andrey Rublev Match total
Breaks Per Match 1.98 1.59 3.57
Over 0.5 98 % 44 % 100 %
Over 1.5 63 % 41 % 72 %
Over 2.5 5 % 32 % 65 %
Over 3.5 3 % 26 % 61 %
Over 4.5 3 % 6 % 15 %
Over 5.5 0 % 0 % 14 %

Tie-breaks

Nuno Borges Andrey Rublev Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.5 0.41 0.46
Over 0.5 43 % 35 % 39 %
Over 1.5 8 % 6 % 7 %
Under 0.5 58 % 65 % 39 %
Under 1.5 93 % 94 % 7 %

Double faults

Nuno Borges Andrey Rublev Match total
Double Faults Per Match 2 2.56 4.56
Over 0.5 (1+) 83 % 88 % 99 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 58 % 68 % 92 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 33 % 35 % 76 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 20 % 21 % 65 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 5 % 12 % 53 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 3 % 9 % 38 %

Net points

Nuno Borges Andrey Rublev Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 5.17 5.93 11.1
Over 4.5 (5+) 60 % 68 % 64 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 43 % 54 % 49 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 33 % 50 % 42 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 27 % 36 % 32 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 23 % 32 % 28 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 17 % 29 % 23 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 1.48 64.2% BetBoom
P2 2.65 35.8% BetBoom

Rublev A face Borges N on August 18, 2026 in the ATP Cincinnati, USA Men Singles, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Rublev A 3-0-2, Borges N 4-0-1. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Rublev A — 64%

1 · Rublev A ✓ Pick63.5%
market 60%
2 · Borges N36.5%
market 40%

Model estimate: win Rublev A 63.5%, win Borges N 36.5%. Model favourite — Rublev A.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown
AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Rublev A (odds1.50) Score 2:1 confidence 58%
  • • Rublev A: forma PPVVV (3-2)
  • • Borzhesh N: forma VPVVV (4-1)
  • • Model backs Rublev A: probability 58% vs 67% on the line (odds 1.50)
  • • no edge over the line (-9 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Rublev A - Borges N August 18, 2026

Tennis math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Rublev A. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.58 / 2 2.40

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.0% 4 books · best price +2.0%
1 ✓ Pick 59.8%
2 40.2%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Fonbet, Leon, Pinnacle). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner P1 1.60 ↓ 1.48
Winner P2 2.35 ↑ 2.65

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Rublev A
59%
1.64
Borges N
41%
2.40
Total
Over 23.5
48%
2.00
Under 23.5
52%
1.82

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Playoff draw

Tournament bracket 2026 Cincinnati, USA

1/64-finals (R128)
Norrie, Cameron2
Prizmic, Dino1
Fucsovics, Marton0
Atmane, Terence0
Shimabukuro, Sho0
Hurkacz, Hubert2
Jacquet, Kyrian0
Vallejo, Adolfo Daniel2
Shapovalov, Denis2
Mannarino, Adrian0
Burruchaga, Roman Andres1
Struff, Jan-Lennard2
Navone, Mariano2
Collignon, Raphael0
Ugo Carabelli, Camilo0
Kecmanovic, Miomir2
Tirante, Thiago Agustin2
Choinski, Jan1
Landaluce, Martin2
Draper, Jack0
Hijikata, Rinky2
Monfils, Gael1
Svajda, Zachary0
Bellucci, Mattia2
Droguet, Titouan1
Berrettini, Matteo2
Hanfmann, Yannick2
Van Assche, Luca0
Wolf, Jeffrey John0
Duckworth, James2
Kopriva, Vit0
Halys, Quentin2
Michelsen, Alex2
De Jong, Jesper0
Merida, Daniel2
Cilic, Marin1
Van de Zandschulp, Botic2
Shevchenko, Alexander0
O'Connell, Christopher2
Majchrzak, Kamil0
Machac, Tomas0
Carreno Busta, Pablo2
Borges, Nuno2
Kokkinakis, Thanasi1
Kovacevic, Aleksandar2
Khachanov, Karen1
Medjedovic, Hamad0
Trungelliti, Marco2
Faria, Jaime2
Brooksby, Jenson0
Walton, Adam2
Mejia, Nicolas0
Marozsan, Fabian1
Zheng, Michael2
Wong, Coleman1
Altmaier, Daniel2
Baez, Sebastian2
Dimitrov, Grigor1
Shang, Juncheng0
Sonego, Lorenzo2
Lajal, Mark0
Cerundolo, Juan Manuel2
Royer, Valentin0
Tsitsipas, Stefanos2
1/32-finals (R64)
Zverev, Alexander2
Norrie, Cameron1
Atmane, Terence2
Etcheverry, Tomas Martin0
Paul, Tommy2
Hurkacz, Hubert1
Vallejo, Adolfo Daniel2
Vacherot, Valentin0
Jodar, Rafael2
Shapovalov, Denis1
Struff, Jan-Lennard0
Tabilo, Alejandro2
Blockx, Alexander2
Navone, Mariano0
Kecmanovic, Miomir1
Cobolli, Flavio2
Djokovic, Novak1
Tirante, Thiago Agustin2
Landaluce, Martin2
Arnaldi, Matteo1
Darderi, Luciano0
Hijikata, Rinky2
Bellucci, Mattia1
Mensik, Jakub2
Lehecka, Jiri2
Berrettini, Matteo1
Hanfmann, Yannick0
Fils, Arthur2
Fery, Arthur2
Duckworth, James1
Halys, Quentin1
de Minaur, Alex2
Fritz, Taylor0
Michelsen, Alex0
Merida, Daniel0
Bergs, Zizou0
Fonseca, Joao0
Van de Zandschulp, Botic0
O'Connell, Christopher0
Ruud, Casper0
Rublev, Andrey0
Carreno Busta, Pablo0
Borges, Nuno0
Cerundolo, Francisco0
Nakashima, Brandon0
Kovacevic, Aleksandar0
Trungelliti, Marco0
Medvedev, Daniil2
Shelton, Ben0
Faria, Jaime0
Walton, Adam0
Buse, Ignacio0
Humbert, Ugo0
Zheng, Michael2
Altmaier, Daniel0
Musetti, Lorenzo0
Tien, Learner0
Baez, Sebastian0
Sonego, Lorenzo0
Tiafoe, Frances0
Rinderknech, Arthur0
Cerundolo, Juan Manuel0
Tsitsipas, Stefanos0
Auger-Aliassime, Felix0
1/16-finals (R32)
Zverev, Alexander0
Atmane, Terence0
Paul, Tommy0
Vallejo, Adolfo Daniel0
Jodar, Rafael0
Tabilo, Alejandro0
Blockx, Alexander0
Cobolli, Flavio0
Tirante, Thiago Agustin0
Landaluce, Martin0
Hijikata, Rinky0
Mensik, Jakub0
Lehecka, Jiri0
Fils, Arthur0
Fery, Arthur0
de Minaur, Alex0
R32P170
R32P180
R32P190
O'Connell, Christopher0
R32P210
R32P220
R32P230
Medvedev, Daniil0
R32P250
R32P260
Zheng, Michael0
R32P280
R32P290
R32P300
R32P310
R32P320
1/8-finals (R16)
R16P10
R16P20
R16P30
R16P40
R16P50
R16P60
R16P70
R16P80
R16P90
R16P100
R16P110
R16P120
R16P130
R16P140
R16P150
R16P160
Quarterfinals
Qf10
Qf20
Qf30
Qf40
Qf50
Qf60
Qf70
Qf80
Semifinals
WQF10
WQF20
WQF30
WQF40
Final
WSF10
WSF20

Playoff draw: gismo. For reference.

Match center
Stadium Lindner Femili Tennis Senter.
Start 18.08.2026 14:00 UTC
Market 1 60.3% @ 1.58 / 2 39.7% @ 2.40
Stage 3-y krug
Coverage hard
Form 9 matches
H2H 2
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Rublev A 64%
💹 Market Rublev A 60%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
🏦 Virtual bank $10,000
$10,000Virtual balance

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Match center

Rublev A - Borges N

Onlayn translyatsiya tennisnogo matcha Andrey Rublev - Nunu Borzhesh. Tsintsinnati (m). Vsya informatsiya: statistika, novosti, intervyu, foto

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Rublev A 64.2% 63.1% market and model agree
Borges N 35.8% 36.9% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko63.5% · +Elo prior (weight0.28).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 63.5% / 36.5% probabilities
Rating 1,846 / 1,701 Rublev A / Borges N
RD 164 / 125 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,519-2,173 / 1,450-1,951 strength interval

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.40 Fonbet · no value · model 36.5%
1 1.58 Fonbet · no value · model 63.5%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.20 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 2.45 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.60 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 1.50 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.25 Fonbet · line only
Over 21.5 1.45 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Fonbet
— 1.50 66.7%
— 1.60 62.5%
1.81 55.3% 1.70 58.8%
1.99 50.3% 1.98 50.5%
— 2.45 40.8%
— 3.50 28.6%
— 2.45 40.8%
1.98 50.5% 2.70 37.0%
1.80 55.6% 3.20 31.3%
— 2.20 45.5%
— 2.02 49.5%
— 1.78 56.2%
— 1.48 67.6%
— 1.25 80.0%

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.22 82.0%
2.45 40.8%
1.50 66.7%
4.00 25.0%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Fonbet
Over 21.5 — 1.45 69.0%
Over 22.5 1.82 55.0% 1.70 58.8%
Over 23.5 1.98 50.5% 2.00 50.0%
Over 24.5 — 1.95 51.3%
Over 25.5 — 2.10 47.6%
Over 26.5 — 2.40 41.7%
Over 27.5 — 2.60 38.5%
Over 28.5 — 2.80 35.7%
Under 21.5 — 2.55 39.2%
Under 22.5 1.97 50.8% 2.02 49.5%
Under 23.5 1.81 55.3% 1.82 55.0%
Under 24.5 — 1.75 57.1%
Under 25.5 — 1.65 60.6%
Under 26.5 — 1.50 66.7%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 2.5 2.25 44.4%
Under 2.5 1.60 62.5%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 5-0-0
2026-05-29 · Andrey Rublev 3:0 Nunu Borges
2026-04-06 · Andrey Rublev 2:1 Nunu Borges
2026-01-09 · Andrey Rublev 2:0 Nunu Borges
2025-02-19 · Andrey Rublev 2:0 Nunu Borges
2024-10-21 · Andrey Rublev 2:0 Nunu Borges
Source: ruscore

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.48 (Winline) · 2 2.75 (Pari)
Bookmaker12
Pari 1.45 2.75
Winline 1.48 2.62
Fonbet 1.45 2.75
Betcity 1.48 2.65
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Rublev A
W L L W W
2026-08-16 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Rublev A Rublev A 2:0 Carreno Busta P
2026-08-04 2026 Montreal, Canada
Rublev A Shang Juncheng 2:1 Rublev A
2026-07-24 2026 Estoril, Portugal
Rublev A Rublev A 1:2 Van Assche L
2026-07-23 2026 Estoril, Portugal
Rublev A Rublev A 2:0 Skatov T
2026-07-19 2026 Bastad, Sweden
Rublev A Rublev A 2:0 Darderi L
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.6 Sets won
0.8 Sets lost
60% Win percentage
Borges N
W W L W W
2026-08-16 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Borges N 2:0 Cerundolo F Borges N
2026-08-14 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Borges N 2:1 Kokkinakis T Borges N
2026-08-08 2026 Montreal, Canada
Borges N 1:2 Darderi L Borges N
2026-08-06 2026 Montreal, Canada
Hanfmann Y 0:2 Borges N Borges N
2026-08-05 2026 Montreal, Canada
Borges N 2:0 Etcheverry T M Borges N
4 Wins
1 Losses
1.8 Sets won
0.6 Sets lost
80% Win percentage

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Frequently asked questions

When does Rublev A vs Borges N start?

August 18, 2026.