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ATP. Los Cabos. Qualification. Hard
ATP. Los Cabos. Qualification. Hard International
1 round 29.07.2026 01:00 UTC

Shimabukuro S - Pacheco Mendez R

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Shimabukuro S — 58%

Pure model vs market (1 · Shimabukuro S): model 60% · market 58% Δ +2 pp model estimate matches the market

1 · Shimabukuro S ✓ Pick57.6%
2 · Pacheco Mendez R42.4%

Model estimate: win Shimabukuro S 57.6%, win Pacheco Mendez R 42.4%. Model favourite — Shimabukuro S.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Shimabukuro S (odds1.66) Score 2:1 confidence 57%
  • • Shimabukuro Sh
  • • 🇯🇵 — Pacheko-Mendes R (tennis)
  • • Shimabukuro Sh
  • • 🇯🇵: forma PPVVV (3-2)
  • • Pacheko-Mendes R: forma P (0-1)
  • • Model backs Shimabukuro Sh
  • • 🇯🇵: probability 57% vs 60% on the line (odds 1.66)
  • • no edge over the line (-3 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Shimabukuro S - Pacheco Mendez R July 29, 2026

Tennis math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Shimabukuro S. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.63 / 2 2.25

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.8%
1 ✓ Pick 58.0%
2 42.0%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Pobeditel P1 1.65 ↓ 1.63
Pobeditel P2 2.25 → 2.25

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Shimabukuro S
6-4WLLLWWLWWW
scored 1.4conceded 0.8
Pacheco Mendez R

no data

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Tennis ATP. Los Cabos. Qualification. Hard
ATP. Los Cabos. Qualification. Hard 1-y krug hard 29.07.2026 01:00 UTC Not started
29.07.2026 01:00 UTC 1-y krug Not started
Shimabukuro S
Shimabukuro S Japan Seed 94
Pacheco Mendez R
Pacheco Mendez R Mexico Seed 320
-:-
Odds
P1 1.67 57.4% BetBoom
P2 2.25 42.6% BetBoom
Stadium: Delmar Interneshnl Skul. Stadium Coverage: hard
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

Japan Country Mexico
- Rating -
28 Age 21
183 Height (cm) 191
83 Weight (kg) 78
Pravsha Hand Pravsha
94 Seed 320
hard Coverage hard
C 0 H2H 0

Form over the last year

Shimabukuro S
38% 5 / 13
38% 5 / 13
Sintetika
no data
clay
no data
grass
3 iz 6
hard
2 iz 7
Pacheco Mendez R
0% 0 / 1
0% 0 / 1
Sintetika
no data
clay
no data
grass
no data
hard
0 iz 1

Head-to-head history

Los-Kabos
Match center
Stadium Delmar Interneshnl Skul. Stadium
Start 29.07.2026 01:00 UTC
Stage 1-y krug
Coverage hard
Form 9 matches
H2H 3
Match center

Shimabukuro S - Pacheco Mendez R

Onlayn translyatsiya tennisnogo matches So Simabukuro - Rodrigo Pacheko Mendes. Los-Kabos. Vsya informatsiya: statistika, novosti, intervyu, foto

Form 1/2 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Championat match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Donor check 2 block. lineup_availability, officials
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Movement
More needed
Lineup / squad source needed
Referees source needed
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Shimabukuro S 57.4% 57.6% market and model agree
Pacheco Mendez R 42.6% 42.4%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 57.6% / 42.4% probabilities
Rating 1,679 / 1,416 Shimabukuro S / Pacheco Mendez R
RD 141 / 290 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,396-1,961 / 837-1,995 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.25 Fonbet · no value · model 42.4%
1 1.63 Fonbet · no value · model 57.6%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.10 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 2.30 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.65 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 1.55 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 19.5 1.35 Fonbet · line only
Over 20.5 1.50 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
— — 1.65 60.6%
1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.75 57.1%
1.96 51.0% — 1.95 51.3%
— — 2.30 43.5%
— — 2.30 43.5%
1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 2.50 40.0%
1.79 55.9% — 2.80 35.7%
— — 2.10 47.6%
— — 1.95 51.3%
— — 1.80 55.6%
— — 1.55 64.5%
— — 1.35 74.1%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 19.5 — — 1.35 74.1%
Over 20.5 — — 1.50 66.7%
Over 21.5 — — 1.63 61.4%
Over 22.5 1.87 53.5% 1.96 51.0% 1.92 52.1%
Over 23.5 — — 2.10 47.6%
Over 24.5 — — 2.15 46.5%
Over 25.5 — — 2.35 42.6%
Over 26.5 — — 2.65 37.7%
Over 27.5 — — 2.95 33.9%
Under 19.5 — — 2.85 35.1%
Under 20.5 — — 2.45 40.8%
Under 21.5 — — 2.15 46.5%
Under 22.5 1.87 53.5% 1.84 54.4% 1.88 53.2%
Under 23.5 — — 1.65 60.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
1.62 61.7% 1.67 59.9% 1.63 61.4% 1.65 60.6%
2.20 45.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.20 45.5%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

Shimabukuro SLLWLWWWWLL
Pacheco Mendez RLLLWLLLWW
Source: ruscore

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.55 (Pari) · 2 2.48 (Betcity)
Bookmaker12
Pari 1.55 2.45
Winline 1.55 2.35
Fonbet 1.55 2.45
Betcity 1.54 2.48
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Shimabukuro S
D
28.07.2026 Championat
Shimabukuro S K. Koulman Von (Hong Kong) 2 6 SE D. Darvin Blansh Darvin Blansh 🇺🇸 0 3 4 1-y krug
0 Wins
0 Losses
- Sets won
- Sets lost
0% Win percentage
Pacheco Mendez R
D D
28.07.2026 Championat
5 K. Kemeron Norri (Velikobritaniya) 2 6 — A. Aleksandr Kovachevich Aleksandr Kovachevich 🇺🇸 0 4 1-y krug Pacheco Mendez R
28.07.2026 Championat
Q A. Aleks Ernandes (Mexico) 0 1 0 LL B. Bernard Tomich Pacheco Mendez R
0 Wins
0 Losses
- Sets won
- Sets lost
0% Win percentage