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ATP. Monreal. hard
ATP. Monreal. hard International
1 round 03.08.2026 14:00 UTC

Merida Aguilar D - Draxl L

Merida Aguilar D go head-to-head with Draxl L on August 3, 2026 in the ATP. Monreal. hard, International.

Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Merida Aguilar D — 60%

Pure model vs market (1 · Merida Aguilar D): model 52% · market 56% Δ −4 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Merida Aguilar D ✓ Pick60.3%
market56%
2 · Draxl L39.7%
market44%

Model estimate: win Merida Aguilar D 60.3%, win Draxl L 39.7%. Model favourite — Merida Aguilar D.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Merida Aguilar D - Draxl L August 3, 2026

Tennis math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Merida Aguilar D. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.70 / 2 2.18

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 4.7%
1 ✓ Pick 56.2%
2 43.8%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Pobeditel P1 1.55 → 1.55
Pobeditel P2 2.45 → 2.45

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Tennis ATP. Monreal. hard
ATP. Monreal. hard 1 round hard 03.08.2026 14:00 UTC Not started
03.08.2026 14:00 UTC 1 round Not started
Merida Aguilar D
Merida Aguilar D Spain
Draxl L
Draxl L Canada
-:-
Odds
P1 1.61 60.3% BetBoom
P2 2.45 39.7% BetBoom
Coverage: hard
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

Spain Country Canada
- Rating -
21 Age 24
188 Height (cm) 185
80 Weight (kg) 79
Right Hand Right
- Seed -
hard Coverage hard
C 0 H2H 0

Form over the last year

Merida Aguilar D
63% 12 / 19
63% 12 / 19
Synthetic
no data
Clay
11 of 16
Grass
1 of 2
Hard
0 of 1
Draxl L
25% 1 / 4
25% 1 / 4
Synthetic
no data
Clay
1 of 2
Grass
no data
Hard
0 of 2

Head-to-head history

0 Forma za posledniy god Forma za posledniy god {"form":[{"category":"Synthetic","value":0,"full":100,"game":""},{"category":"Clay","value":69,"full":100,"game":"11 of 16"},{"category":"grass","value":50,"full":100,"game":"1 of 2"},{"category":"hard","value":0,"full":100,"game":"0 of 1"}],"color":["#819491","#d55314","#a8b806","#606da3"],"total":{"win":12,"game":19,"pct":"63%"}} ; Forma za posledniy god {"form":[{"category":"Synthetic","value":0,"full":100,"game":""},{"category":"Clay","value":50,"full":100,"game":"1 of 2"},{"category":"grass","value":0,"full":100,"game":""},{"category":"hard","value":0,"full":100,"game":"0 of 2"}],"color":["#819491","#d55314","#a8b806","#606da3"],"total":{"win":1,"game":4,"pct":"25%"}}
Match center
Stadium IGA Stadium.
Start 03.08.2026 14:00 UTC
Market 1 56.2% @ 1.70 / 2 43.8% @ 2.18
Coverage hard
Form 6 matches
Match center

Merida Aguilar D - Draxl L

Onlayn translyatsiya tennisnogo matcha Daniel Merida-Agilar - Liam Drasl. Monreal. Vsya informatsiya: statistika, novosti, intervyu, foto

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Merida Aguilar D 61.3% 60.3% market and model agree
Draxl L 38.8% 39.7%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 60.3% / 39.7% probabilities
Rating 1,887 / 1,894 Merida Aguilar D / Draxl L
RD 163 / 160 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,561-2,214 / 1,574-2,215 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.18 Fonbet · no value · model 39.7%
1 1.70 Fonbet · weak value +2.6% · model 60.3%
Total
Over 23.5 2.00 Fonbet · line only
Under 23.5 1.80 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
1.97 50.8% 1.98 50.5% 1.92 52.1%
1.82 55.0% 1.83 54.6% —
— — 1.83 54.6%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 23.5 1.97 50.8% 1.98 50.5% 2.00 50.0%
Under 23.5 1.82 55.0% 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
1.55 64.5% 1.61 62.1% 1.70 58.8%
2.45 40.8% 2.32 43.1% 2.18 45.9%
Match center
Merida Aguilar D
L W W W W
21.07 13:42 UTC+0 ATP. Eshtoril
Merida Aguilar D 1:2 Zhake KZhake K
18.07 17:00 UTC+0 ATP. Umag
Merida Aguilar D 2:1 Dzhumkhur DDzhumkhur D
17.07 16:30 UTC+0 ATP. Umag
Merida Aguilar D 2:0 Burruchaga R-ABurruchaga R-A
16.07 14:05 UTC+0 ATP. Umag
Merida Aguilar D 2:0 Droge TDroge T
15.07 14:09 UTC+0 ATP. Umag
Merida Aguilar D 2:0 Etcheverri T-MEtcheverri T-M
4 Wins
1 Losses
1.8 Sets won
0.6 Sets lost
80% Win percentage
Draxl L
L W W W W
26.07 17:00 UTC+0 Vinnipeg
Draxl L 0:2 Samuel TSamuel T
25.07 19:30 UTC+0 Vinnipeg
Draxl L 2:0 Motidzuki Sh
24.07 23:05 UTC+0 Vinnipeg
Draxl L 2:0 Shidekh K
23.07 23:00 UTC+0 Vinnipeg
Draxl L 2:1 Kholmgren AKholmgren A
21.07 23:00 UTC+0 Vinnipeg
Draxl L 2:0 Kharrion M
4 Wins
1 Losses
1.6 Sets won
0.6 Sets lost
80% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMerida Aguilar D - Draxl L

Merida Aguilar D
0 matches total
Draxl L
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history