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ATP. Monreal. hard
ATP. Monreal. hard International
1 round 04.08.2026 16:35 UTC

Merida Aguilar D - Draxl L

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

Merida Aguilar D meet Draxl L on August 4, 2026 in the ATP. Monreal. hard, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Merida Aguilar D 4-0-1, Draxl L 4-0-1. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Merida Aguilar D — 56%

Pure model vs market (1 · Merida Aguilar D): model 52% · market 58% Δ −6 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Merida Aguilar D56.1%
2 · Draxl L43.9%

Model estimate: win Merida Aguilar D 56.1%, win Draxl L 43.9%. Model favourite — Merida Aguilar D.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Merida Aguilar D (odds1.70) Score 2:1 confidence 55%
  • • Merida-Agilar D: forma PVVVV (4-1)
  • • Draksl L: forma PVVVV (4-1)
  • • liniya na pik P1 1.55→1.90 (udlinilas — rynok dreyfuet vs)
  • • Model backs Merida-Agilar D: probability 55% vs 59% on the line (odds 1.70)
  • • no edge over the line (-4 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Merida Aguilar D - Draxl L August 4, 2026

Tennis math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Merida Aguilar D. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.68 / 2 2.20

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.3% 4 books · best price +2.4%
1 57.9%
2 42.1%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner P1 1.55 ↑ 1.68
Winner P2 2.45 ↓ 2.20

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:2/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated03.08.2026 17:02 UTC
1 56% ✓ favourite
2 44%
Score2:1 Total games: Over 22.5 Bet:1
Per AI data Form:LWWWW / LWWWW H2H: 0:0 Injuries:no
Claude updated03.08.2026 14:15 UTC
1 55% ✓ favourite
2 45%
Score2:1 Total games: Over 22.5 Bet:2 Draksl at 2.45 (spravedlivyy 2.22, ROI +10,3%); pri koeffitsiente nizhe 2.30 — pereklyuchitsya na Over 22.5

AI consensus:1

AI 1 2 Score Total games Bet
Google AI 56% 44% 2:1 Over 22.5
Claude 55% 45% 2:1 Over 22.5
Tennis ATP. Monreal. hard
ATP. Monreal. hard 1-y krug hard 04.08.2026 16:35 UTC Not started
04.08.2026 16:35 UTC 1-y krug Not started
Merida Aguilar D
Merida Aguilar D Spain Seed 61
L W W W W
Draxl L
Draxl L Canada Seed 211
L W W W W
-:-
Odds
P1 1.68 59.3% BetBoom
P2 2.45 40.7% BetBoom
Stadium: IGA Stadium. Kort Rodzhers Coverage: hard
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

Spain Country Canada
- Rating -
21 Age 24
188 Height (cm) 185
80 Weight (kg) 79
- Hand -
61 Seed 211
hard Coverage hard
C 0 H2H 0

Form over the last year

Merida Aguilar D
63% 12 / 19
63% 12 / 19
Sintetika
no data
clay
11 iz 16
grass
1 iz 2
hard
0 iz 1
Draxl L
25% 1 / 4
25% 1 / 4
Sintetika
no data
clay
1 iz 2
grass
no data
hard
0 iz 2

Head-to-head history

Monreal
Match center
Stadium IGA Stadium. Kort Rodzhers
Start 04.08.2026 16:35 UTC
Market 1 56.7% @ 1.68 / 2 43.3% @ 2.20
Stage 1-y krug
Coverage hard
Form 9 matches
H2H 3
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Merida Aguilar D 56%
📐 Math model Merida Aguilar D 56%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Merida Aguilar D - Draxl L

Onlayn translyatsiya tennisnogo matcha Daniel Merida-Agilar - Liam Drasl. Monreal. Vsya informatsiya: statistika, novosti, intervyu, foto

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Championat match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Donor check 2 block. lineup_availability, officials
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Movement
More needed
Lineup / squad source needed
Referees source needed
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Merida Aguilar D 56.6% 56.1% market and model agree
Draxl L 43.5% 43.9%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 56.1% / 43.9% probabilities
Rating 1,889 / 1,892 Merida Aguilar D / Draxl L
RD 163 / 161 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,562-2,215 / 1,571-2,213 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.20 Fonbet · no value · model 43.9%
1 1.68 Fonbet · no value · model 56.1%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.02 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 2.20 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.70 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 1.60 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 20.5 1.45 Fonbet · line only
Over 21.5 1.60 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
— — 1.60 62.5%
— — 1.70 58.8%
— — 1.83 54.6%
1.97 50.8% 1.98 50.5% 2.00 50.0%
— — 2.40 41.7%
— — 3.20 31.3%
— — 2.20 45.5%
— — 2.40 41.7%
1.82 55.0% 1.83 54.6% 2.70 37.0%
— — 2.02 49.5%
— — 1.92 52.1%
— — 1.72 58.1%
— — 1.50 66.7%
— — 1.30 76.9%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 20.5 — — 1.45 69.0%
Over 21.5 — — 1.60 62.5%
Over 22.5 — — 1.88 53.2%
Over 23.5 1.97 50.8% 1.98 50.5% 2.05 48.8%
Over 24.5 — — 2.10 47.6%
Over 25.5 — — 2.30 43.5%
Over 26.5 — — 2.60 38.5%
Over 27.5 — — 2.90 34.5%
Under 20.5 — — 2.50 40.0%
Under 21.5 — — 2.20 45.5%
Under 22.5 — — 1.92 52.1%
Under 23.5 1.82 55.0% 1.83 54.6% 1.68 59.5%
Under 24.5 — — 1.65 60.6%
Under 25.5 — — 1.55 64.5%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
1.55 64.5% 1.61 62.1% 1.68 59.5% 1.67 59.9%
2.45 40.8% 2.32 43.1% 2.20 45.5% 2.16 46.3%
Match center
Merida Aguilar D
L W W W W
2026-07-21 2026 Estoril, Portugal
Merida Aguilar D Merida Aguilar D 1:2 Jacquet K
2026-07-18 2026 Umag, Croatia
Merida Aguilar D Merida Aguilar D 2:1 Dzumhur D
2026-07-17 2026 Umag, Croatia
Merida Aguilar D Burruchaga R A 0:2 Merida Aguilar D
2026-07-16 2026 Umag, Croatia
Merida Aguilar D Merida Aguilar D 2:0 Droguet T
2026-07-15 2026 Umag, Croatia
Merida Aguilar D Etcheverry T M 0:2 Merida Aguilar D
4 Wins
1 Losses
1.8 Sets won
0.6 Sets lost
80% Win percentage
Draxl L
L W W W W
2026-07-26 2026 Winnipeg, Canada
Draxl L 0:2 Samuel T Draxl L
2026-07-25 2026 Winnipeg, Canada
Mochizuki S 0:2 Draxl L Draxl L
2026-07-24 2026 Winnipeg, Canada
Draxl L 2:0 Chidekh C Draxl L
2026-07-23 2026 Winnipeg, Canada
Holmgren A 1:2 Draxl L Draxl L
2026-07-21 2026 Winnipeg, Canada
Hurrion M 0:2 Draxl L Draxl L
4 Wins
1 Losses
1.6 Sets won
0.6 Sets lost
80% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMerida Aguilar D - Draxl L

Merida Aguilar D
0 matches total
Draxl L
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Event
Monreal