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ATP. Monreal. hard
ATP. Monreal. hard International
1 round 03.08.2026 14:00 UTC

Svajda Z - Shapovalov D

Svajda Z face Shapovalov D on August 3, 2026 in the ATP. Monreal. hard, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Svajda Z 2-1-2, Shapovalov D 4-0-1. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Shapovalov D — 59%

Pure model vs market (2 · Shapovalov D): model 56% · market 59% Δ −3 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Svajda Z40.9%
market41%
2 · Shapovalov D ✓ Pick59.1%
market59%

Model estimate: win Svajda Z 40.9%, win Shapovalov D 59.1%. Model favourite — Shapovalov D.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Svajda Z - Shapovalov D August 3, 2026

Tennis math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Shapovalov D. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 2.35 / 2 1.60

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.1%
1 40.5%
2 ✓ Pick 59.5%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Pobeditel P1 2.35 → 2.35
Pobeditel P2 1.60 → 1.60

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Tennis ATP. Monreal. hard
ATP. Monreal. hard 1-y krug hard 03.08.2026 14:00 UTC Not started
03.08.2026 14:00 UTC 1-y krug Not started
Svajda Z
Svajda Z USA
L L W L W
Shapovalov D
Shapovalov D Canada
W W W W L
-:-
Odds
P1 2.35 40.5% BetBoom
P2 1.60 59.5% BetBoom
Stadium: IGA Stadium. Coverage: hard
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

USA Country Canada
- Rating -
23 Age 27
175 Height (cm) 185
70 Weight (kg) 75
Pravsha Hand Levsha
- Seed -
hard Coverage hard
0 H2H 0

Form over the last year

Svajda Z
43% 9 / 21
43% 9 / 21
Sintetika
no data
clay
4 iz 7
grass
2 iz 4
hard
3 iz 10
Shapovalov D
48% 21 / 44
48% 21 / 44
Sintetika
no data
clay
2 iz 7
grass
1 iz 4
hard
18 iz 33

Head-to-head history

Monreal
Match center
Stadium IGA Stadium.
Start 03.08.2026 14:00 UTC
Market 1 40.5% @ 2.35 / 2 59.5% @ 1.60
Stage 1-y krug
Coverage hard
Form 5 matches
H2H 3
Match center

Svajda Z - Shapovalov D

Onlayn translyatsiya tennisnogo matcha Zakhari Svayda - Denis Shapovalov. Monreal. Vsya informatsiya: statistika, novosti, intervyu, foto

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Championat match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Donor check 2 block. lineup_availability, officials
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Movement
More needed
Lineup / squad source needed
Referees source needed
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Svajda Z 40.5% 40.9%
Shapovalov D 59.5% 59.1% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 40.9% / 59.1% probabilities
Rating 1,623 / 1,861 Svajda Z / Shapovalov D
RD 233 / 180 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,158-2,088 / 1,501-2,221 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.60 Fonbet · no value · model 59.1%
1 2.35 Fonbet · no value · model 40.9%
Total
Over 22.5 1.91 market consensus · line only
Under 22.5 1.86 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Leon
1.87 53.5%
1.90 52.6%

Total

Outcome Leon
Over 22.5 1.91 52.4%
Under 22.5 1.86 53.8%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
2.35 42.6% 2.34 42.7% 2.35 42.6% 2.36 42.4%
1.60 62.5% 1.60 62.5% 1.60 62.5% 1.57 63.7%
Match center
Svajda Z
L D W L W
2026-07-27 2026 Washington, USA
Svajda Z Vukic A 2:0 Svajda Z
2026-07-26 2026 Washington, USA, Qualifying
Svajda Z Svajda Z 1:1 Hewitt Cruz
2026-07-25 2026 Washington, USA, Qualifying
Svajda Z Svajda Z 2:0 Kozlov S
2026-07-04 2026 Wimbledon, London, Great Britain
Svajda Z De Minaur A 3:1 Svajda Z
2026-07-02 2026 Wimbledon, London, Great Britain
Svajda Z Svajda Z 3:2 Majchrzak K
2 Wins
2 Losses
1.4 Sets won
1.6 Sets lost
40% Win percentage
Shapovalov D
W W W W L
2026-08-01 2026 Los Cabos, Mexico
Norrie C 1:2 Shapovalov D Shapovalov D
2026-07-31 2026 Los Cabos, Mexico
Shapovalov D 2:0 Svrcina D Shapovalov D
2026-07-30 2026 Los Cabos, Mexico
Shapovalov D 2:0 Pacheco Mendez R Shapovalov D
2026-07-29 2026 Los Cabos, Mexico
Shapovalov D 2:1 Hijikata R Shapovalov D
2026-06-29 2026 Wimbledon, London, Great Britain
Shapovalov D 0:1 Carreno Busta P Shapovalov D
4 Wins
1 Losses
1.6 Sets won
0.6 Sets lost
80% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historySvajda Z - Shapovalov D

Svajda Z
0 matches total
Shapovalov D
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Event
Monreal