Miedler L / Polmans M go head-to-head with Goransson A / Ruud C on August 6, 2026 in the ATP. Monreal. Pary, International.
Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1Miedler L / Polmans M — 68%
Pure model vs market (1 · Miedler L / Polmans M): model 63% · market 68%Δ −5 ppmodel estimates below the market
68%1
1 · Miedler L / Polmans M ✓ Pick67.9%
market68%
2 · Goransson A / Ruud C32.1%
market32%
Model estimate: win Miedler L / Polmans M 67.9%, win Goransson A / Ruud C 32.1%. Model favourite — Miedler L / Polmans M.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
🤖AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Miedler L / Polmans M (odds1.36)Score 2:1confidence 68%
•Midler L / Polmans M: forma VVVVV (5-0)
•liniya na pik P1 1.40→1.37 (ukorotilas — dengi na pik)
•Model backs Midler L / Polmans M: probability 68% vs 74% on the line (odds 1.36)
•no edge over the line (-6 pp) — informational only.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
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Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Miedler L / Polmans M - Goransson A / Ruud C August 6, 2026
Tennis math model
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Miedler L / Polmans M. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.53 / 2 2.35
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner
bookmaker margin 6.8%
6 books · best price +10.9%
1 ✓ Pick68.1%
231.9%
Odds source: consensus of 6 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⇅
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner P11.40↓ 1.30
Winner P22.80↑ 3.30
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: 1
Main outcome
Agreement1/1
Confidence62.0%
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
%
Market consensus
Forecast by market
Match result
Miedler L / Polmans M
69%
1.53
Goransson A / Ruud C
31%
3.10
Total
Over 22.5
49%
1.82
Under 22.5
51%
2.25
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
LIVE
Now in play
serve: Miedler L / Polmans M · sets 0:0 · games 6-6 · game 3:4
Current match situation. Updates every ~3 min.
LIVE
1X2 probabilities (live, from the line)
61%39%
Miedler L / Polmans M (1)Goransson A / Ruud C (2)
Implied probabilities from the Fonbet live line (1/odds, normalized). For reference.
*
AI overview
AI predictions
AI analysis:2/7 ready· Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2
Google AIupdated06.08.2026 14:19 UTC
170%✓ favourite
230%
Score2:0Total games: Under 22.5Bet:1 at 2:0
Per AI dataH2H: 0:0
Claudeupdated06.08.2026 16:14 UTC
171%✓ favourite
229%
Score2:0Total games: Under 22.5Bet:Under 22.5 games
Tennis math model.
Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Miedler L / Polmans M68.5%67.9%market and model agree
Goransson A / Ruud C31.5%32.1%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Tennis math model
P1 / P267.9% / 32.1%
probabilities
Rating1,964 / 1,500
Miedler L / Polmans M / Goransson A / Ruud C
RD172 / 350
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD1,621-2,308 / 800-2,200
strength interval
Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.
Betting snapshot
1X2
22.35
Fonbet · no value · model 32.1%
11.53
Fonbet · weak value +3.9% · model 67.9%
Handicap
2 -0.52.30
Fonbet · line only
1 -0.51.55
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.52.35
Fonbet · line only
Over 20.52.10
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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