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ATP Montreal, Canada Men Singles
ATP Montreal, Canada Men Singles
3rd round 07.08.2026 16:35 UTC

Griekspoor T - Arnaldi M

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis ATP Montreal, Canada Men Singles
ATP Montreal, Canada Men Singles 3rd round hard 07.08.2026 16:35 UTC Not started
07.08.2026 16:35 UTC 3rd round Not started
Griekspoor T
Griekspoor T Netherlands
Rank #69 Elo 885
46Struggling Form
W W L L L L W W
Arnaldi M
Arnaldi M Italy
Rank #35 Elo 1299
58Average Form
L L L L W L L W
-:-
Stadium: IGA Stadium. Coverage: hard
Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Griekspoor T Arnaldi M
Win % 52% 56.5%
Hard % 50% 49.6%
Clay % 51.9% 64.5%
Grass % 60.5% 42.9%
Deciding set % 52.6% 54.3%
Tie-breaks % 52.1% 60.3%
Titles (total) 4 5
Last 10 WWLLLLWLLW LLWLLWWLWW

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

Netherlands Country Italy
#69 Rating #35
30 Age 25
188 Height (cm) 185
85 Weight (kg) 71
Right Hand Right
69 Seed 35
hard Coverage hard
Posev 30 0 H2H 1

Serve and return stats

Griekspoor T Arnaldi M
Aces per match 8.08 4.21
Double faults per match 2.88 4.38
Breaks per match 0.62 15

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

Form over the last year

Griekspoor T
35% 15 / 43
35% 15 / 43
Sintetika
no data
clay
1 iz 7
grass
1 iz 4
hard
13 iz 32
Arnaldi M
38% 11 / 29
38% 11 / 29
Sintetika
no data
clay
8 iz 13
grass
0 iz 2
hard
3 iz 14

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Tallon Griekspoor
Rank:69 Elo: 885
W W L L L L W W
Matteo Arnaldi
Rank:35 Elo: 1299
L L L L W L L W
Elo favourite:Arnaldi M (edge +414 Elo)

Hard

Tallon GriekspoorMatteo Arnaldi
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 69.2% 9 / 13 Matches 40.0% 2 / 5 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 52.0% 13 / 25 Matches 36.8% 7 / 19 Matches

Clay

Tallon GriekspoorMatteo Arnaldi
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 33.3% 3 / 9 Matches 56.3% 9 / 16 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 33.3% 3 / 9 Matches 56.3% 9 / 16 Matches

Grass

Tallon GriekspoorMatteo Arnaldi
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 33.3% 1 / 3 Matches 66.7% 2 / 3 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 33.3% 1 / 3 Matches 66.7% 2 / 3 Matches

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Tallon Griekspoor Matteo Arnaldi
H2H wins 0 (0.0%) 1 (100.0%)
Sets 1 (25.0%) 3 (75.0%)
Wins this year 46.4% 13 / 28 Matches 58.1% 18 / 31 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 42.5% 17 / 40 Matches 51.1% 23 / 45 Matches
Current rank 69 35

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Tallon Griekspoor Matteo Arnaldi
Prize money (career) $6,660,088 USD $2,813,165 USD
Rating 69 35
Age 30 25
Height 1.88m 1.85m
Weight 85kg 71kg
Playing hand Right-handed Right-handed

Win percentage (match / set)

Tallon Griekspoor Matteo Arnaldi
Match Wins 46 % 58 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 52 % 54 %
Match Wins (5 Sets) 0 % 83 %
Wins in Straight Sets 36 % 13 %
Wins From Behind 6 % 38 %
Won At Least 1 Set 75 % 81 %
Set 1 Win 54 % 42 %
Set 2 Win 57 % 52 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Head-to-Head Record

Date Tournament Results
May 26 2026 French Open ATP (Clay) Tallon Griekspoor 1 – 3 Matteo Arnaldi

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Tallon Griekspoor Matteo Arnaldi Match total
Average Games in a Set 10.82 9.55 10.19
Over 6.5 100 % 88 % 94 %
Over 7.5 100 % 67 % 84 %
Over 8.5 92 % 54 % 73 %
Over 9.5 76 % 33 % 55 %
Over 10.5 44 % 21 % 33 %
Over 11.5 44 % 21 % 33 %

Aces

Tallon Griekspoor Matteo Arnaldi Match total
Aces Per Match 8.08 4.21 12.29
Most Aces in a match 40 % 50 % N/A
1+ 100 % 96 % 100 %
2+ 96 % 92 % 100 %
3+ 88 % 67 % 96 %
4+ 80 % 50 % 90 %
5+ 64 % 38 % 82 %

Breaks

Tallon Griekspoor Matteo Arnaldi Match total
Breaks Per Match 0.62 15 15.62
Over 0.5 92 % 100 % 98 %
Over 1.5 16 % 100 % 60 %
Over 2.5 4 % 100 % 52 %
Over 3.5 0 % 100 % 52 %
Over 4.5 0 % 100 % 50 %
Over 5.5 0 % 100 % 50 %

Tie-breaks

Tallon Griekspoor Matteo Arnaldi Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.52 0.63 0.57
Over 0.5 48 % 38 % 43 %
Over 1.5 4 % 21 % 12 %
Under 0.5 52 % 63 % 43 %
Under 1.5 96 % 79 % 12 %

Double faults

Tallon Griekspoor Matteo Arnaldi Match total
Double Faults Per Match 2.88 4.38 7.26
Over 0.5 (1+) 84 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 80 % 100 % 98 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 60 % 83 % 88 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 28 % 63 % 82 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 8 % 50 % 72 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 8 % 21 % 62 %

Net points

Tallon Griekspoor Matteo Arnaldi Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 7.65 8.72 16.37
Over 4.5 (5+) 78 % 67 % 73 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 74 % 61 % 68 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 61 % 56 % 59 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 57 % 39 % 48 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 52 % 39 % 46 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 48 % 33 % 41 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 1.57 60.5% BetBoom
P2 2.40 39.6% BetBoom

Griekspoor T take on Arnaldi M on August 7, 2026 in the ATP Montreal, Canada Men Singles.

Recent form (W-D-L): Griekspoor T 2-0-3, Arnaldi M 2-0-3. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Griekspoor T — 60%

Pure model vs market (1 · Griekspoor T): model 54% · market 58% Δ −4 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Griekspoor T ✓ Pick59.8%
market58%
2 · Arnaldi M40.2%
market42%

Model estimate: win Griekspoor T 59.8%, win Arnaldi M 40.2%. Model favourite — Griekspoor T.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Griekspoor T (odds1.57) Score 2:1 confidence 60%
  • • Grikspur T
  • • 🇳🇱 — Arnaldi M
  • • 🇮🇹 (tennis)
  • • Grikspur T
  • • 🇳🇱: forma VVPPV (3-2)
  • • Arnaldi M
  • • 🇮🇹: forma VPPPV (2-3)
  • • liniya na pik P1 1.60→1.57 (ukorotilas — dengi na pik)
  • • Model backs Grikspur T
  • • 🇳🇱: probability 60% vs 64% on the line (odds 1.57)
  • • no edge over the line (-4 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Griekspoor T - Arnaldi M August 7, 2026

Tennis math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Griekspoor T. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.58 / 2 2.40

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.3% 6 books
1 ✓ Pick 57.6%
2 42.4%

Odds source: consensus of 6 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner P1 1.60 ↓ 1.57
Winner P2 2.35 ↑ 2.40

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Griekspoor T
58%
1.66
Arnaldi M
42%
2.40
Total
Over 11.5
50%
1.84
Under 11.5
50%
1.86

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

0Wins1
1.0Average score3.0

Head-to-head matches: 1 · average total 4.0 (goals)

Team form

Griekspoor T
4-6WLLWLLLLWW
scored 1.2conceded 1.6
Arnaldi M
7-3WWWWWLLWLW
scored 1.9conceded 1.5

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Match center
Stadium IGA Stadium.
Start 07.08.2026 16:35 UTC
Market 1 60.3% @ 1.58 / 2 39.7% @ 2.40
Stage 3-y krug
Coverage hard
Form 9 matches
H2H 1
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Griekspoor T 60%
💹 Market Griekspoor T 58%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Griekspoor T - Arnaldi M

Onlayn translyatsiya tennisnogo matcha Tallon Grikspor - Matteo Arnaldi. Monreal. Vsya informatsiya: statistika, novosti, intervyu, foto

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Championat match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Donor check 2 block. lineup_availability, officials
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Movement
More needed
Lineup / squad source needed
Referees source needed
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Griekspoor T 60.5% 55.5% market and model agree
Arnaldi M 39.6% 44.5% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko59.8% · +Elo prior (weight0.31).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 59.8% / 40.2% probabilities
Rating 1,588 / 1,547 Griekspoor T / Arnaldi M
RD 153 / 151 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,281-1,895 / 1,245-1,850 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.40 Fonbet · no value · model 40.2%
1 1.58 Fonbet · no value · model 59.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.20 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 2.45 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.60 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 1.50 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 0.5 2.05 market consensus · line only
Over 10.5 2.80 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
— — 1.60 62.5%
1.82 55.0% 1.86 53.8% 1.70 58.8%
1.97 50.8% 2.00 50.0% —
— — 2.45 40.8%
1.97 50.8% 1.94 51.6% 2.65 37.7%
1.82 55.0% 1.82 55.0% 3.10 32.3%
— — 2.20 45.5%
— — 2.02 49.5%
— — 1.82 55.0%
— — 1.53 65.4%
— — 1.30 76.9%

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.23 81.3%
2.45 40.8%
1.52 65.8%
4.00 25.0%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 20.5 — — 1.40 71.4%
Over 21.5 — — 1.53 65.4%
Over 22.5 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6%
Over 23.5 1.99 50.3% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0%
Over 24.5 — — 2.02 49.5%
Over 25.5 — — 2.20 45.5%
Over 26.5 — — 2.50 40.0%
Over 27.5 — — 2.70 37.0%
Under 20.5 — — 2.75 36.4%
Under 21.5 — — 2.35 42.6%
Under 22.5 1.99 50.3% 2.00 50.0% —
Under 23.5 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% —

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 2.5 2.25 44.4%
Under 2.5 1.60 62.5%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 0-0-1
2026-05-26 · Tallon Grikspur 1:3 Matteo Arnaldi
Source: ruscore

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.68 (Betcity) · 2 2.35 (Pari)
Bookmaker12
Pari 1.6 2.35
Winline 1.63 2.27
Fonbet 1.6 2.35
Betcity 1.68 2.2
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Griekspoor T
W W L L L
2026-08-05 2026 Montreal, Canada
Griekspoor T Zverev A 1:2 Griekspoor T
2026-08-04 2026 Montreal, Canada
Griekspoor T Sonego L 0:2 Griekspoor T
2026-07-27 2026 Washington, USA
Griekspoor T Tabilo A 2:1 Griekspoor T
2026-06-30 2026 Wimbledon, London, Great Britain
Griekspoor T Griekspoor T 1:3 Duckworth J
2026-06-16 2026 Halle, Germany
Griekspoor T Griekspoor T 1:2 Shimabukuro S
2 Wins
3 Losses
1.4 Sets won
1.6 Sets lost
40% Win percentage
Arnaldi M
W L L W L
2026-08-05 2026 Montreal, Canada
Marozsan F 1:2 Arnaldi M Arnaldi M
2026-07-27 2026 Washington, USA
Arnaldi M 0:1 Musetti L Arnaldi M
2026-07-16 2026 Umag, Croatia
Dzumhur D 2:1 Arnaldi M Arnaldi M
2026-07-15 2026 Umag, Croatia
Gomez F A 1:2 Arnaldi M Arnaldi M
2026-06-30 2026 Wimbledon, London, Great Britain
Arnaldi M 1:3 Halys Q Arnaldi M
2 Wins
3 Losses
1.2 Sets won
1.6 Sets lost
40% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyGriekspoor T - Arnaldi M

Griekspoor T
0 matches total
Arnaldi M
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Event
2026 Rolan Garros (m) clay 1-y krug 29 T. Tallon Grikspor Tallon Grikspor (Netherlands) 1 7 3 6 3 M. Matteo Arnaldi Matteo Arnaldi (Italy) 3 6 7 6 ; CHAMP