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ATP Montreal, Canada Men Singles
ATP Montreal, Canada Men Singles
3rd round 07.08.2026 16:35 UTC

Merida Aguilar D - Michelsen A

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis ATP Montreal, Canada Men Singles
ATP Montreal, Canada Men Singles 3rd round hard 07.08.2026 16:35 UTC Not started
07.08.2026 16:35 UTC 3rd round Not started
Merida Aguilar D
Merida Aguilar D Spain
Rank #42 Elo 1065
65Average Form
W W L W W W W W
Michelsen A
Michelsen A USA
Rank #63 Elo 925
65Average Form
W W W W W W W W
-:-
Stadium: IGA Stadium. Coverage: hard
Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Merida Aguilar D Michelsen A
Win % 61% 58.9%
Hard % 59.3% 62.6%
Clay % 62.4% 45.5%
Grass % 33.3% 57.1%
Deciding set % 59.1% 57.1%
Tie-breaks % 48.8% 52.4%
Titles (total) 8 4
Last 10 WLWWWWWLWL WWLWWWWWWW

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

Spain Country USA
#42 Rating #63
21 Age 21
188 Height (cm) 193
80 Weight (kg) 79
Right Hand Right
D Seed 0
hard Coverage hard
1 H2H 1

Serve and return stats

Merida Aguilar D Michelsen A
Aces per match 5.62 3.04
Double faults per match 2.42 2.63
Breaks per match 1.8 2.39

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

Form over the last year

Merida Aguilar D
67% 14 / 21
67% 14 / 21
Sintetika
no data
clay
11 iz 16
grass
1 iz 2
hard
2 iz 3
Michelsen A
53% 26 / 49
53% 26 / 49
Sintetika
no data
clay
6 iz 12
grass
0 iz 1
hard
20 iz 36

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Alex Michelsen
Rank:42 Elo: 1065
W W L W W W W W
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Rank:63 Elo: 925
W W W W W W W W
Elo favourite:Michelsen A (edge +140 Elo)

Hard

Alex MichelsenDaniel Merida Aguilar
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 75.0% 21 / 28 Matches 70.0% 14 / 20 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 64.1% 25 / 39 Matches 65.5% 19 / 29 Matches

Clay

Alex MichelsenDaniel Merida Aguilar
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 44.4% 4 / 9 Matches 71.4% 20 / 28 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 44.4% 4 / 9 Matches 67.4% 29 / 43 Matches

Grass

Alex MichelsenDaniel Merida Aguilar
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 75.0% 3 / 4 Matches 0.0% 0 / 1 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 75.0% 3 / 4 Matches 0.0% 0 / 1 Matches

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Alex Michelsen Daniel Merida Aguilar
H2H wins 1 (100.0%) 0 (0.0%)
Sets 2 (100.0%) 0 (0.0%)
Wins this year 65.2% 30 / 46 Matches 64.8% 35 / 54 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 59.7% 34 / 57 Matches 62.8% 49 / 78 Matches
Current rank 42 63

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Alex Michelsen Daniel Merida Aguilar
Prize money (career) $1,746,771 USD $79,610 USD
Rating 42 63
Age 21 21
Height 1.93m 1.88m
Weight 79kg 80kg
Playing hand Right-handed Right-handed

Win percentage (match / set)

Alex Michelsen Daniel Merida Aguilar
Match Wins 65 % 65 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 68 % 69 %
Match Wins (5 Sets) 50 % 0 %
Wins in Straight Sets 43 % 39 %
Wins From Behind 20 % 25 %
Won At Least 1 Set 78 % 85 %
Set 1 Win 61 % 61 %
Set 2 Win 65 % 61 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Head-to-Head Record

Date Tournament Results
Mar 5 2026 Indian Wells ATP (Hard) Alex Michelsen 2 – 0 Daniel Merida Aguilar

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Alex Michelsen Daniel Merida Aguilar Match total
Average Games in a Set 9.8 9.31 9.56
Over 6.5 98 % 94 % 96 %
Over 7.5 88 % 82 % 85 %
Over 8.5 76 % 67 % 72 %
Over 9.5 49 % 37 % 43 %
Over 10.5 24 % 20 % 22 %
Over 11.5 24 % 20 % 22 %

Aces

Alex Michelsen Daniel Merida Aguilar Match total
Aces Per Match 5.62 3.04 8.66
Most Aces in a match 33 % 49 % N/A
1+ 100 % 90 % 99 %
2+ 93 % 71 % 97 %
3+ 78 % 53 % 92 %
4+ 65 % 31 % 80 %
5+ 53 % 16 % 71 %

Breaks

Alex Michelsen Daniel Merida Aguilar Match total
Breaks Per Match 1.8 2.39 4.19
Over 0.5 98 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 50 % 47 % 78 %
Over 2.5 3 % 47 % 50 %
Over 3.5 3 % 45 % 48 %
Over 4.5 3 % 45 % 47 %
Over 5.5 0 % 6 % 46 %

Tie-breaks

Alex Michelsen Daniel Merida Aguilar Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.49 0.24 0.37
Over 0.5 39 % 22 % 31 %
Over 1.5 10 % 2 % 6 %
Under 0.5 61 % 78 % 31 %
Under 1.5 90 % 98 % 6 %

Double faults

Alex Michelsen Daniel Merida Aguilar Match total
Double Faults Per Match 2.42 2.63 5.05
Over 0.5 (1+) 90 % 84 % 98 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 70 % 67 % 89 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 40 % 49 % 85 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 18 % 29 % 72 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 10 % 14 % 50 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 8 % 10 % 41 %

Net points

Alex Michelsen Daniel Merida Aguilar Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 7.17 6.45 13.62
Over 4.5 (5+) 83 % 33 % 58 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 72 % 18 % 45 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 62 % 10 % 36 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 55 % 5 % 30 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 34 % 5 % 20 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 24 % 5 % 15 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 2.85 33.7% BetBoom
P2 1.45 66.3% BetBoom

Merida Aguilar D face Michelsen A on August 7, 2026 in the ATP Montreal, Canada Men Singles.

Recent form (W-D-L): Merida Aguilar D 4-0-1, Michelsen A 4-0-1. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Michelsen A — 64%

1 · Merida Aguilar D35.6%
market30%
2 · Michelsen A ✓ Pick64.4%
market70%

Model estimate: win Merida Aguilar D 35.6%, win Michelsen A 64.4%. Model favourite — Michelsen A.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Michelsen A (odds1.44) Score 1:2 confidence 64%
  • • Merida Agilar D
  • • 🇪🇸 — Mikelsen A
  • • 🇺🇸 (tennis)
  • • Merida Agilar D
  • • 🇪🇸: forma VVPVV (4-1)
  • • Mikelsen A
  • • 🇺🇸: forma VVPVV (4-1)
  • • Model backs Mikelsen A
  • • 🇺🇸: probability 64% vs 69% on the line (odds 1.44)
  • • no edge over the line (-5 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Merida Aguilar D - Michelsen A August 7, 2026

Tennis math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Michelsen A. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 3.40 / 2 1.32

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.3% 6 books · best price +3.4%
1 29.6%
2 ✓ Pick 70.4%

Odds source: consensus of 6 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner P1 2.75 ↑ 2.80
Winner P2 1.45 → 1.45

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Merida Aguilar D
29%
3.40
Michelsen A
71%
1.39
Total
Over 9.5
50%
1.86
Under 9.5
50%
1.88

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

0Wins1
0.0Average score2.0

Head-to-head matches: 1 · average total 2.0 (goals)

Team form

Merida Aguilar D
7-3LLWWWWWLWW
scored 1.6conceded 0.9
Michelsen A
9-1WWWWWWWLWW
scored 1.9conceded 0.5

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Match center
Stadium IGA Stadium.
Start 07.08.2026 16:35 UTC
Market 1 28.0% @ 3.40 / 2 72.0% @ 1.32
Stage 3-y krug
Coverage hard
Form 9 matches
H2H 1
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Michelsen A 64%
💹 Market Michelsen A 70%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
🏦 Virtual bank $10,000
$10,000Virtual balance

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Match center

Merida Aguilar D - Michelsen A

Onlayn translyatsiya tennisnogo matcha Daniel Merida-Agilar - Aleks Mikhelsen. Monreal. Vsya informatsiya: statistika, novosti, intervyu, foto

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Championat match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Donor check 2 block. lineup_availability, officials
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Movement
More needed
Lineup / squad source needed
Referees source needed
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Merida Aguilar D 34.0% 38.4% market and model agree
Michelsen A 66.0% 61.6% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko35.6% · +Elo prior (weight0.21).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 35.6% / 64.4% probabilities
Rating 1,745 / 1,807 Merida Aguilar D / Michelsen A
RD 131 / 115 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,482-2,007 / 1,576-2,037 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.32 Fonbet · no value · model 64.4%
1 3.40 Fonbet · no value · model 35.6%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.27 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.32 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 3.40 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 3.10 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 0.5 2.55 market consensus · line only
Over 10.5 3.30 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
— — 3.10 32.3%
— — 2.80 35.7%
2.10 47.6% 1.95 51.3% —
1.71 58.5% — —
— — 3.40 29.4%
— — 3.75 26.7%
— — 1.32 75.8%
— — 1.38 72.5%
— — 1.50 66.7%
— — 1.72 58.1%
— — 2.10 47.6%
— — 2.85 35.1%
— — 1.27 78.7%
— — 1.23 81.3%
1.72 58.1% 1.85 54.1% —
2.10 47.6% — —

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.85 54.1%
5.40 18.5%
1.12 89.3%
1.92 52.1%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 19.5 — — 1.45 69.0%
Over 20.5 — — 1.63 61.4%
Over 21.5 1.84 54.4% 1.86 53.8% 1.85 54.1%
Over 22.5 1.99 50.3% 2.04 49.0% 2.07 48.3%
Over 23.5 — — 2.30 43.5%
Over 24.5 — — 2.40 41.7%
Over 25.5 — — 2.65 37.7%
Over 26.5 — — 3.00 33.3%
Under 19.5 — — 2.55 39.2%
Under 20.5 — — 2.15 46.5%
Under 21.5 1.95 51.3% 1.94 51.6% —
Under 22.5 1.80 55.6% 1.78 56.2% —

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 2.5 2.50 40.0%
Under 2.5 1.50 66.7%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 0-0-1
2026-03-05 · Daniel Merida Agilar 0:2 Aleks Mikelsen
Source: ruscore

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 3 (Betcity) · 2 1.45 (Pari)
Bookmaker12
Pari 2.8 1.45
Winline 2.85 1.42
Fonbet 2.8 1.45
Betcity 3 1.4
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Merida Aguilar D
W W L W W
2026-08-05 2026 Montreal, Canada
Merida Aguilar D Humbert U 0:2 Merida Aguilar D
2026-08-04 2026 Montreal, Canada
Merida Aguilar D Merida Aguilar D 2:1 Draxl L
2026-07-21 2026 Estoril, Portugal
Merida Aguilar D Merida Aguilar D 1:2 Jacquet K
2026-07-18 2026 Umag, Croatia
Merida Aguilar D Merida Aguilar D 2:1 Dzumhur D
2026-07-17 2026 Umag, Croatia
Merida Aguilar D Burruchaga R A 0:2 Merida Aguilar D
4 Wins
1 Losses
1.8 Sets won
0.8 Sets lost
80% Win percentage
Michelsen A
W W L W W
2026-08-05 2026 Montreal, Canada
Michelsen A 2:0 Cerundolo F Michelsen A
2026-08-04 2026 Montreal, Canada
Michelsen A 2:1 Struff J-L Michelsen A
2026-07-31 2026 Washington, USA
Fritz T 2:1 Michelsen A Michelsen A
2026-07-29 2026 Washington, USA
Michelsen A 2:0 Mannarino A Michelsen A
2026-07-28 2026 Washington, USA
Michelsen A 2:0 McDonald M Michelsen A
4 Wins
1 Losses
1.8 Sets won
0.6 Sets lost
80% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMerida Aguilar D - Michelsen A

Merida Aguilar D
0 matches total
Michelsen A
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Event
2026 Indian-Uells (m) hard 1-y krug Q D. Daniel Merida-Agilar Daniel Merida-Agilar (Spain) 0 3 4 A. Aleks Mikhelsen Aleks Mikhelsen 🇺🇸 2 6 ; CHAMP('t