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ATP - Singles: Los Kabos (Mexico), hard
ATP - Singles: Los Kabos (Mexico), hard
30.07.2026 00:30 UTC

Shapovalov D. 🇨🇦 - Arce Fernandez M

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Arce Fernandez M — 52%

1 · Shapovalov D. 🇨🇦48.4%
2 · Arce Fernandez M51.6%

Model estimate: win Shapovalov D. 🇨🇦 48.4%, win Arce Fernandez M 51.6%. Model favourite — Arce Fernandez M.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Arce Fernandez M (odds3.20) Score 1:2 confidence 52%
  • • Shapovalov D
  • • 🇨🇦 — Pacheco Mendez R
  • • (Mek) (tennis)
  • • Shapovalov D
  • • 🇨🇦: forma VPP (1-2)
  • • Pacheco Mendez R
  • • (Mek): forma VPPVV (3-2)
  • • Model backs Pacheco Mendez R
  • • (Mek): probability 52% vs 31% on the line (odds 3.20)
  • • edge over the line +20 pp — value pick.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Shapovalov D. 🇨🇦 - Arce Fernandez M July 30, 2026

Tennis math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Shapovalov D. 🇨🇦. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 1.35 / 2 3.20

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.3%
1 70.3%
2 29.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Shapovalov D. 🇨🇦
2-8LLLWWLLLLL
scored 0.6conceded 1.8
Arce Fernandez M
7-3LWWWLWWLWW
scored 1.6conceded 1.0

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Tennis ATP - Singles: Los Kabos (Mexico), hard
ATP - Singles: Los Kabos (Mexico), hard hard 30.07.2026 00:30 UTC Not started
30.07.2026 00:30 UTC Not started
Shapovalov D. 🇨🇦
Shapovalov D. 🇨🇦
W
A
Arce Fernandez M
W
-:-
Odds
P1 1.35 70.3% BetBoom
P2 3.20 29.7% BetBoom
Coverage: hard
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

- Country -
- Rating -
- Age -
- Height (cm) -
- Weight (kg) -
- Hand -
- Seed -
hard Coverage hard
0 H2H 0
Match center
Start 30.07.2026 00:30 UTC
Coverage hard
Form 6 matches
Match center

Shapovalov D. 🇨🇦 - Arce Fernandez M

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Movement Line history
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Shapovalov D. 🇨🇦 70.3% 48.4% market favourite
Arce Fernandez M 29.7% 51.6% Glicko contrarian

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 48.4% / 51.6% probabilities
Rating 1,564 / 1,674 Shapovalov D. 🇨🇦 / Arce Fernandez M
RD 258 / 177 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,049-2,080 / 1,321-2,028 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.20 market consensus · weak value +65.2% · model 51.6%
1 1.35 market consensus · no value · model 48.4%

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Betcity
1.35 74.1%
3.20 31.3%
Match center
Shapovalov D. 🇨🇦
W
29.07 00:30 UTC ATP - Singles: Los Kabos (Mexico), hard
Shapovalov D. 🇨🇦 2:1 Khidzhikata R. 🇦🇺Khidzhikata R. 🇦🇺
1 Wins
0 Losses
2.0 Sets won
1.0 Sets lost
100% Win percentage
Arce Fernandez M
W
28.07 23:00 UTC ATP - Singles: Los Kabos (Mexico), hard
Arce Fernandez M 2:1 Shimabukuro Sh. 🇯🇵Shimabukuro Sh. 🇯🇵
1 Wins
0 Losses
2.0 Sets won
1.0 Sets lost
100% Win percentage