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ATP - Singles: Los Kabos (Mexico), hard
ATP - Singles: Los Kabos (Mexico), hard
1 round 28.07.2026 23:00 UTC

Shimabukuro S - Arce Fernandez M

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Shimabukuro S — 57%

Pure model vs market (1 · Shimabukuro S): model 55% · market 58% Δ −3 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Shimabukuro S ✓ Pick56.9%
2 · Arce Fernandez M43.1%

Model estimate: win Shimabukuro S 56.9%, win Arce Fernandez M 43.1%. Model favourite — Shimabukuro S.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Shimabukuro S (odds1.54) Score 2:1 confidence 50%
  • • Shimabukuro Sh
  • • 🇯🇵 — Pacheco Mendez R
  • • (Mek) (tennis)
  • • Shimabukuro Sh
  • • 🇯🇵: forma PPVVV (3-2)
  • • Pacheco Mendez R
  • • (Mek): forma PPVV (2)
  • • Model backs Shimabukuro Sh
  • • 🇯🇵: probability 50% vs 65% on the line (odds 1.54)
  • • no edge over the line (-15 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Shimabukuro S - Arce Fernandez M July 28, 2026

Tennis math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Shimabukuro S. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.65 / 2 2.25

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.1%
1 ✓ Pick 57.7%
2 42.3%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Pobeditel P1 1.55 ↑ 1.65
Pobeditel P2 2.50 ↓ 2.25

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Shimabukuro S
6-4WLLLWWLWWW
scored 1.4conceded 0.8
Arce Fernandez M
7-3LWWWLWWLWW
scored 1.6conceded 1.0

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Tennis ATP - Singles: Los Kabos (Mexico), hard
ATP - Singles: Los Kabos (Mexico), hard 1-y krug hard 28.07.2026 23:00 UTC Not started
28.07.2026 23:00 UTC 1-y krug Not started
Shimabukuro S
Shimabukuro S Japan Seed 94
Arce Fernandez M
Arce Fernandez M Mexico Seed 320
-:-
Odds
P1 1.67 57.4% BetBoom
P2 2.25 42.6% BetBoom
Stadium: Delmar Interneshnl Skul. Coverage: hard
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

Japan Country Mexico
- Rating -
28 Age 21
183 Height (cm) 191
83 Weight (kg) 78
Pravsha Hand Pravsha
94 Seed 320
hard Coverage hard
C 0 H2H 0

Form over the last year

Shimabukuro S
38% 5 / 13
38% 5 / 13
Sintetika
no data
clay
no data
grass
3 iz 6
hard
2 iz 7
Arce Fernandez M
0% 0 / 1
0% 0 / 1
Sintetika
no data
clay
no data
grass
no data
hard
0 iz 1

Head-to-head history

Los-Kabos
Match center
Stadium Delmar Interneshnl Skul.
Start 28.07.2026 23:00 UTC
Stage 1-y krug
Coverage hard
Form 5 matches
H2H 3
Match center

Shimabukuro S - Arce Fernandez M

Onlayn translyatsiya tennisnogo matches So Simabukuro - Rodrigo Pacheko Mendes. Los-Kabos. Vsya informatsiya: statistika, novosti, intervyu, foto

Form 1/2 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Championat match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Donor check 2 block. lineup_availability, officials
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Movement
More needed
Lineup / squad source needed
Referees source needed
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Shimabukuro S 57.1% 56.9% market and model agree
Arce Fernandez M 42.9% 43.1%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 56.9% / 43.1% probabilities
Rating 1,679 / 1,604 Shimabukuro S / Arce Fernandez M
RD 141 / 198 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,397-1,960 / 1,208-2,000 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.25 Fonbet · no value · model 43.1%
1 1.65 Fonbet · no value · model 56.9%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.10 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 2.25 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.65 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 1.57 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 20.5 1.50 Fonbet · line only
Over 21.5 1.63 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Betcity Fonbet
— 1.57 63.7%
— 1.50 66.7%
— 1.40 71.4%
— 1.65 60.6%
1.85 54.1% 1.80 55.6%
— 1.95 51.3%
— 2.30 43.5%
— 3.05 32.8%
— 2.25 44.4%
1.95 51.3% 2.45 40.8%
— 2.75 36.4%
— 2.10 47.6%
— 1.95 51.3%
— 1.75 57.1%
— 1.55 64.5%
— 1.33 75.2%

Total

Outcome Betcity Fonbet
Over 20.5 — 1.50 66.7%
Over 21.5 — 1.63 61.4%
Over 22.5 1.96 51.0% 1.92 52.1%
Over 23.5 — 2.08 48.1%
Over 24.5 — 2.15 46.5%
Over 25.5 — 2.35 42.6%
Over 26.5 — 2.65 37.7%
Over 27.5 — 2.95 33.9%
Under 20.5 — 2.45 40.8%
Under 21.5 — 2.15 46.5%
Under 22.5 1.84 54.4% 1.88 53.2%
Under 23.5 — 1.67 59.9%
Under 24.5 — 1.62 61.7%
Under 25.5 — 1.52 65.8%
Under 26.5 — 1.42 70.4%
Under 27.5 — 1.35 74.1%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Betcity Fonbet Leon
1.67 59.9% 1.65 60.6% 1.65 60.6%
2.20 45.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.20 45.5%
Match center
Shimabukuro S
D
28.07.2026 Championat
Shimabukuro S G. Gabriel Diallo (Canada) Q T. Tristan Boyer Tristan Boyer 🇺🇸 1-y krug
0 Wins
0 Losses
- Sets won
- Sets lost
0% Win percentage
Arce Fernandez M
D D
28.07.2026 Championat
Q A. Aleks Ernandes (Mexico) LL B. Bernard Tomich (Australia) 1-y krug Arce Fernandez M
28.07.2026 Championat
5 K. Kemeron Norri (Velikobritaniya) A. Aleksandr Kovachevich Aleksandr Kovachevich 🇺🇸 Arce Fernandez M
0 Wins
0 Losses
- Sets won
- Sets lost
0% Win percentage