ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hardhard04.08.2026 00:30 UTCFinished
04.08.2026 00:30 UTCFinished
Carreno Busta P
Royer V
1:2
Odds
P11.48
64.6% BetBoom
P22.70
35.4% BetBoom
Coverage: hard
PreviewStatisticsBroadcastComments
About the athletes
-Country-
-Rating-
-Age-
-Height (cm)-
-Weight (kg)-
-Hand-
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hardCoveragehard
0H2H0
Carreno Busta P go head-to-head with Royer V on August 4, 2026 in the ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard.
PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 63% to win. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1Carreno Busta P — 63%
Pure model vs market (1 · Carreno Busta P): model 50% · market 64%Δ −14 ppmodel estimates below the market
63%1
1 · Carreno Busta P ✓ Pick62.8%
market64%
2 · Royer V37.2%
market36%
Model estimate: win Carreno Busta P 62.8%, win Royer V 37.2%. Model favourite — Carreno Busta P.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
🤖AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Carreno Busta P (odds1.44)Score 2:1confidence 50%✗ outcome missed
•Karreno-Busta P
•🇪🇸 — Roye V
•🇫🇷 (tennis)
•Karreno-Busta P
•🇪🇸: forma PVPVV (3-2)
•Roye V
•🇫🇷: forma PVVPV (3-2)
•Model backs Karreno-Busta P
•🇪🇸: probability 50% vs 69% on the line (odds 1.44)
•no edge over the line (-19 pp) — informational only.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
*
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Carreno Busta P - Royer V August 4, 2026
Tennis math model
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Carreno Busta P.
Line favourite market consensus: Carreno Busta P. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
Win odds (market consensus): 1 1.48 / 2 2.70
Glicko: Carreno Busta P 62.8% / Royer V 37.2%
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner
bookmaker margin 5.3%
3 books
1 ✓ Pick64.2%
235.8%
Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⚔
Head-to-head and form stats
Head-to-head and form
Team form
Carreno Busta P
no data
Royer V
4-6LWLLLWLWLW
scored 1.2conceded 1.4
Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.
Match center
Start04.08.2026 00:30 UTC
Market1 64.6% @ 1.48 / 2 35.4% @ 2.70
Coveragehard
Form6 matches
Match center
Carreno Busta P - Royer V
V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.
Form5/5
recent games
H2H0
head-to-head matches
Market2
model / bookmakers
Flashscorematch data
source checked
Oddsmatch data
source checked
Line depthmatch data
source checked
Present in data
MarketFormMatchParticipantsLineOverview
More needed
H2HChampionat, Flashscore
TournamentChampionat, Flashscore
MovementLine history
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score1:2
Events0
Statistics0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
OptionSignalPrediction / actualRating
Glicko-2: base favouriteAudit
tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed
Data: line, form, coverage
home - 62.8% fact: away
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.788 / LogLoss 0.988
Glicko-2: calibrated favouriteAudit
tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed
Data: line, form, coverage
home - 51.5% fact: away
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.531 / LogLoss 0.724
Market and Glicko
Tennis math model.
Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Carreno Busta P64.2%62.8%market and model agree
Royer V35.8%37.2%
1X2: 3 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Tennis math model
P1 / P262.8% / 37.2%
probabilities
Rating1,757 / 1,810
Carreno Busta P / Royer V
RD152 / 161
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD1,452-2,061 / 1,489-2,132
strength interval
Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.
Betting snapshot
1X2
22.67
market consensus · no value · model 37.2%
11.47
market consensus · no value · model 62.8%
Total
Over 22.51.95
market consensus · line only
Under 22.51.85
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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