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ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard
ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard
06.08.2026 23:00 UTC

Jodar R - Musetti L

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data –Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard
ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard hard 06.08.2026 23:00 UTC Not started
06.08.2026 23:00 UTC Not started
Jodar R
Jodar R
Rank #13 Elo 2375
70Good Form
L W W L W W L W
Musetti L
Musetti L
Rank #15 Elo 2243
75Good Form
L W W L W W L L
-:-
Coverage: hard
Preview

About the athletes

- Country -
#13 Rating #15
24 Age 19
1.85m Height (cm) 1.88m
78kg Weight (kg) 70kg
- Hand -
- Seed -
hard Coverage hard
1 H2H 1

Serve and return stats

Jodar R Musetti L
Aces per match 3.41 3.98
Double faults per match 2 1.65
Breaks per match 3.24 2.01

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Lorenzo Musetti
Rank:13 Elo: 2375
L W W L W W L W
Rafael Jodar
Rank:15 Elo: 2243
L W W L W W L L
Elo favourite:Musetti L (edge +132 Elo)

Hard

Lorenzo MusettiRafael Jodar
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 62.5% 5 / 8 Matches 73.1% 19 / 26 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 62.2% 23 / 37 Matches 79.3% 46 / 58 Matches

Clay

Lorenzo MusettiRafael Jodar
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 60.0% 6 / 10 Matches 82.4% 14 / 17 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 60.0% 6 / 10 Matches 82.4% 14 / 17 Matches

Grass

Lorenzo MusettiRafael Jodar
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year N/A 0 / 0 Matches N/A 0 / 0 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months N/A 0 / 0 Matches N/A 0 / 0 Matches

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Lorenzo Musetti Rafael Jodar
H2H wins 0 (0.0%) 1 (100.0%)
Sets 1 (33.3%) 2 (66.7%)
Wins this year 69.6% 16 / 23 Matches 75.0% 42 / 56 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 66.0% 35 / 53 Matches 78.0% 71 / 91 Matches
Current rank 13 15

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Lorenzo Musetti Rafael Jodar
Prize money (career) $11,379,428 USD $5,518 USD
Rating 13 15
Age 24 19
Height 1.85m 1.88m
Weight 78kg 70kg

Win percentage (match / set)

Lorenzo Musetti Rafael Jodar
Match Wins 70 % 75 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 61 % 77 %
Match Wins (5 Sets) 100 % 71 %
Wins in Straight Sets 43 % 52 %
Wins From Behind 36 % 32 %
Won At Least 1 Set 74 % 84 %
Set 1 Win 57 % 71 %
Set 2 Win 65 % 64 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Head-to-head history

ATP - Singles: Vashington 🇺🇸, hard
  Jodar R. 🇪🇸 1 2
  Muzetti L. 🇮🇹 0 1

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Lorenzo Musetti Rafael Jodar Match total
Average Games in a Set 10.26 9.52 9.89
Over 6.5 94 % 100 % 97 %
Over 7.5 89 % 81 % 85 %
Over 8.5 89 % 65 % 77 %
Over 9.5 61 % 37 % 49 %
Over 10.5 39 % 26 % 33 %
Over 11.5 39 % 26 % 33 %

Aces

Lorenzo Musetti Rafael Jodar Match total
Aces Per Match 3.41 3.98 7.39
Most Aces in a match 29 % 56 % N/A
1+ 100 % 91 % 97 %
2+ 88 % 84 % 97 %
3+ 59 % 74 % 94 %
4+ 29 % 56 % 79 %
5+ 29 % 40 % 69 %

Breaks

Lorenzo Musetti Rafael Jodar Match total
Breaks Per Match 3.24 2.01 5.25
Over 0.5 100 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 94 % 56 % 100 %
Over 2.5 41 % 56 % 99 %
Over 3.5 29 % 5 % 74 %
Over 4.5 29 % 5 % 62 %
Over 5.5 0 % 2 % 45 %

Tie-breaks

Lorenzo Musetti Rafael Jodar Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.33 0.28 0.31
Over 0.5 33 % 26 % 29 %
Over 1.5 0 % 2 % 1 %
Under 0.5 67 % 74 % 29 %
Under 1.5 100 % 98 % 1 %

Double faults

Lorenzo Musetti Rafael Jodar Match total
Double Faults Per Match 2 1.65 3.65
Over 0.5 (1+) 82 % 72 % 91 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 65 % 47 % 87 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 29 % 28 % 74 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 12 % 9 % 55 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 6 % 5 % 39 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 6 % 2 % 25 %

Net points

Lorenzo Musetti Rafael Jodar Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 9.96 5.01 14.97
Over 4.5 (5+) 57 % 56 % 57 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 43 % 42 % 43 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 43 % 31 % 37 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 29 % 22 % 26 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 29 % 17 % 23 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 21 % 11 % 16 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Jodar R face Musetti L on August 6, 2026 in the ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard.

Recent form (W-D-L): Jodar R 2-0-0, Musetti L 2-0-0. These sides have met 1 time recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Jodar R — 53%

1 · Jodar R53.3%
2 · Musetti L46.7%

Model estimate: win Jodar R 53.3%, win Musetti L 46.7%. Model favourite — Jodar R.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Jodar R (odds1.88) Score 2:1 confidence 53%
  • • Jodar R
  • • 🇪🇸 — Muzetti L
  • • 🇮🇹 (tennis)
  • • Jodar R
  • • 🇪🇸: forma VPVVV (4-1)
  • • Muzetti L
  • • 🇮🇹: forma VPVV (3-1)
  • • ochnye 1-0 (za 1)
  • • Model backs Jodar R
  • • 🇪🇸: probability 53% vs 53% on the line (odds 1.88)
  • • legkiy pereves +0 pp nad liniey.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Jodar R - Musetti L August 6, 2026

Tennis math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Jodar R. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 1.67 / 2 2.25

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.3% 5 books
1 56.9%
2 43.2%

Odds source: consensus of 5 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

1Wins0
2.0Average score1.0

Head-to-head matches: 1 · average total 3.0 (goals)

Team form

Jodar R
7-3LWWLWWWWLW
scored 1.7conceded 1.3
Musetti L
6-4LWWLWWLWLW
scored 1.3conceded 0.9

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Match center
Start 06.08.2026 23:00 UTC
Market 1 57.4% @ 1.67 / 2 42.6% @ 2.25
Coverage hard
Form 6 matches
H2H 1
Match center

Jodar R - Musetti L

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 1 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Present in data
Form Match Participants H2H Overview
More needed
Market BetBoom, Flashscore, odds
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Line BetBoom, odds
Movement Line history
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Jodar R - 51.2%
Musetti L - 48.8%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko53.3% · +Elo prior (weight0.45).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 53.3% / 46.7% probabilities
Rating 1,812 / 1,786 Jodar R / Musetti L
RD 170 / 221 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,472-2,152 / 1,344-2,229 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.21 market consensus · no value · model 46.7%
1 1.66 market consensus · no value · model 53.3%
Total
Over 2.5 2.23 market consensus · line only
Over 22.5 1.82 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
1.79 55.9% 1.87 53.5% 1.81 55.3%
— 2.15 46.5% 1.97 50.8%
— 2.04 49.0% —
2.00 50.0% 1.93 51.8% 1.97 50.8%
— 1.70 58.8% 1.81 55.3%
— 1.78 56.2% —

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet
Over 2.5 — — 2.23 44.8% 2.23 44.8%
Over 22.5 1.87 53.5% 1.85 54.1% 1.76 56.8% 1.76 56.8%
Over 23.5 — — 1.98 50.5% 1.98 50.5%
Over 24.5 — — 2.04 49.0% 2.04 49.0%
Under 2.5 — — 1.63 61.4% 1.63 61.4%
Under 22.5 1.91 52.4% 1.95 51.3% 1.97 50.8% 1.97 50.8%
Under 23.5 — — 1.75 57.1% —
Under 24.5 — — 1.71 58.5% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet Leon
1.65 60.6% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.66 60.2%
2.25 44.4% 2.20 45.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.19 45.7%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 1-0-0
2026-07-31 · Rafael Khodar 2:1 Lorentso Muzetti
Source: ruscore

Odds · 2 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.45 (Pari) · 2 2.75 (Pari)
Bookmaker12
Pari 1.45 2.75
Fonbet 1.45 2.75
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Jodar R
W
2026-08-05 ATP Montreal, Canada Men Singles 2026
Jodar R Jodar, Rafael 2:1 Moutet, Corentin
1 Wins
0 Losses
2.0 Sets won
1.0 Sets lost
100% Win percentage
Musetti L
W
2026-08-05 ATP Montreal, Canada Men Singles 2026
Mejia, Nicolas 0:2 Musetti, Lorenzo Musetti L
1 Wins
0 Losses
2.0 Sets won
0.0 Sets lost
100% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyJodar R - Musetti L

Jodar R
1 matches total
Musetti L
Jodar R: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Musetti L: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Jodar, Rafael 2:1 (2026-07-31) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (2:1, 2026-07-31) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

2026-07-31 ATP Montreal, Canada Men Singles 2026
Jodar, Rafael 2:1 Musetti, Lorenzo