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ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard
ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard
1 round 03.08.2026 22:00 UTC

Merida Aguilar D - Draxl L

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

Merida Aguilar D go head-to-head with Draxl L on August 3, 2026 in the ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard.

Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Merida Aguilar D — 55%

Pure model vs market (1 · Merida Aguilar D): model 49% · market 56% Δ −7 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Merida Aguilar D55.0%
2 · Draxl L45.0%

Model estimate: win Merida Aguilar D 55.0%, win Draxl L 45.0%. Model favourite — Merida Aguilar D.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Draxl L (odds2.39) Score 1:2 confidence 51%
  • • Merida Agilar D
  • • 🇪🇸 — Draksl L
  • • 🇨🇦 (tennis)
  • • Merida Agilar D
  • • 🇪🇸: forma PVVVP (3-2)
  • • Draksl L
  • • 🇨🇦: forma VVVVP (4-1)
  • • Model backs Draksl L
  • • 🇨🇦: probability 51% vs 42% on the line (odds 2.39)
  • • edge over the line +9 pp — value pick.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Merida Aguilar D - Draxl L August 3, 2026

Tennis math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Merida Aguilar D. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 1.71 / 2 2.20

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 3.9%
1 56.3%
2 43.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Merida Aguilar D
5-5LWWLLLWWWL
scored 1.2conceded 1.3
Draxl L

no data

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Tennis ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard
ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard 1-y krug hard 03.08.2026 22:00 UTC Not started
03.08.2026 22:00 UTC 1-y krug Not started
Merida Aguilar D
Merida Aguilar D Spain
Draxl L
Draxl L Canada
-:-
Odds
P1 1.71 56.3% BetBoom
P2 2.20 43.7% BetBoom
Stadium: IGA Stadium. Kort Rodzhers Coverage: hard
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

Spain Country Canada
- Rating -
21 Age 24
188 Height (cm) 185
80 Weight (kg) 79
- Hand -
- Seed -
hard Coverage hard
C 0 H2H 0

Form over the last year

Merida Aguilar D
63% 12 / 19
63% 12 / 19
Sintetika
no data
clay
11 iz 16
grass
1 iz 2
hard
0 iz 1
Draxl L
25% 1 / 4
25% 1 / 4
Sintetika
no data
clay
1 iz 2
grass
no data
hard
0 iz 2

Head-to-head history

Monreal
Match center
Stadium IGA Stadium. Kort Rodzhers
Start 03.08.2026 22:00 UTC
Market 1 56.3% @ 1.71 / 2 43.7% @ 2.20
Stage 1-y krug
Coverage hard
Form 7 matches
H2H 3
Match center

Merida Aguilar D - Draxl L

Onlayn translyatsiya tennisnogo matcha Daniel Merida-Agilar - Liam Drasl. Monreal. Vsya informatsiya: statistika, novosti, intervyu, foto

Form 1/2 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Championat match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Donor check 2 block. lineup_availability, officials
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Overview
More needed
Lineup / squad source needed
Referees source needed
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Merida Aguilar D 55.7% 55.0% market and model agree
Draxl L 44.3% 45.0%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 55.0% / 45.0% probabilities
Rating 1,685 / 1,775 Merida Aguilar D / Draxl L
RD 145 / 123 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,395-1,975 / 1,530-2,020 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.15 market consensus · no value · model 45.0%
1 1.70 market consensus · no value · model 55.0%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.92 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.86 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.92 market consensus · line only
1 +0.5 1.86 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 22.5 1.85 market consensus · line only
Over 23.5 1.91 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
— — 1.86 53.8%
— — 1.92 52.1%
1.82 55.0% 1.83 54.6% 1.93 51.8%
— — 1.95 51.3%
— — 1.86 53.8%
1.97 50.8% 1.98 50.5% 1.84 54.4%
— — 1.83 54.6%
— — 1.92 52.1%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
Over 22.5 1.89 52.9% 1.87 53.5% 1.80 55.6%
Over 23.5 — — 1.91 52.4%
Under 22.5 1.89 52.9% 1.93 51.8% 1.98 50.5%
Under 23.5 — — 1.86 53.8%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
1.71 58.5% 1.67 59.9% 1.71 58.5%
2.15 46.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.10 47.6%
Match center
Merida Aguilar D
D
02.08.2026 Championat
Merida Aguilar D Kh. Khaume Munar Khaume Munar (Spain) 2 7 6 — R. Rinki Khidzikata (Australia) 0 6 3 1-y krug
0 Wins
0 Losses
- Sets won
- Sets lost
0% Win percentage
Draxl L
D D
02.08.2026 Championat
A. Adolfo Daniel Valekho (Paraguay) 0 3 SR Ts. Tszyunchen Shan Tszyunchen Shan (China) 2 6 1-y krug Draxl L
03.08.2026 Championat
M. Matteo Berrettini (Italy) M. Draxl L
0 Wins
0 Losses
- Sets won
- Sets lost
0% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMerida Aguilar D - Draxl L

Merida Aguilar D
0 matches total
Draxl L
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Event
Monreal