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ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard
ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard
1 round 03.08.2026 22:00 UTC

Merida Aguilar D - Draxl L

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

Merida Aguilar D go head-to-head with Draxl L on August 3, 2026 in the ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard.

Full analysis β€” form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction β€” follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Merida Aguilar D β€” 55%

Pure model vs market (1 Β· Merida Aguilar D): model 49% Β· market 56% Ξ” βˆ’7 pp model estimates below the market

1 Β· Merida Aguilar D55.0%
2 Β· Draxl L45.0%

Model estimate: win Merida Aguilar D 55.0%, win Draxl L 45.0%. Model favourite β€” Merida Aguilar D.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Draxl L (odds2.39) Score 1:2 confidence 51%
  • • Merida Agilar D
  • • πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ β€” Draksl L
  • • πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ (tennis)
  • • Merida Agilar D
  • • πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ: forma PVVVP (3-2)
  • • Draksl L
  • • πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦: forma VVVVP (4-1)
  • • Model backs Draksl L
  • • πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦: probability 51% vs 42% on the line (odds 2.39)
  • • edge over the line +9 pp β€” value pick.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Merida Aguilar D - Draxl L August 3, 2026

Tennis math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Merida Aguilar D. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 1.71 / 2 2.20

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin β€” for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.3% 3 books
1 55.7%
2 44.3%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds β€” reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Merida Aguilar D
5-5LWWLLLWWWL
scored 1.2conceded 1.3
Draxl L

no data

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics β€” for reference.

Tennis ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard
ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard 1-y krug hard 03.08.2026 22:00 UTC Not started
03.08.2026 22:00 UTC 1-y krug Not started
Merida Aguilar D
Merida Aguilar D Spain
Draxl L
Draxl L Canada
-:-
Odds
P1 1.71 56.3% BetBoom
P2 2.20 43.7% BetBoom
Stadium: IGA Stadium. Kort Rodzhers Coverage: hard
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

Spain Country Canada
- Rating -
21 Age 24
188 Height (cm) 185
80 Weight (kg) 79
- Hand -
- Seed -
hard Coverage hard
C 0 H2H 0

Form over the last year

Merida Aguilar D
63% 12 / 19
63% 12 / 19
Sintetika
no data
clay
11 iz 16
grass
1 iz 2
hard
0 iz 1
Draxl L
25% 1 / 4
25% 1 / 4
Sintetika
no data
clay
1 iz 2
grass
no data
hard
0 iz 2

Head-to-head history

Monreal
Match center
Stadium IGA Stadium. Kort Rodzhers
Start 03.08.2026 22:00 UTC
Market 1 56.3% @ 1.71 / 2 43.7% @ 2.20
Stage 1-y krug
Coverage hard
Form 7 matches
H2H 3
Match center

Merida Aguilar D - Draxl L

Onlayn translyatsiya tennisnogo matcha Daniel Merida-Agilar - Liam Drasl. Monreal. Vsya informatsiya: statistika, novosti, intervyu, foto

Form 1/2 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Championat match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Donor check 2 block. lineup_availability, officials
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Overview
More needed
Lineup / squad source needed
Referees source needed
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Merida Aguilar D 55.7% 55.0% market and model agree
Draxl L 44.3% 45.0%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 55.0% / 45.0% probabilities
Rating 1,685 / 1,775 Merida Agilar D. πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ / Draksl L. πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦
RD 145 / 123 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,395-1,975 / 1,530-2,020 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.15 market consensus Β· no value Β· model 45.0%
1 1.70 market consensus Β· no value Β· model 55.0%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.92 market consensus Β· line only
2 +0.5 1.86 market consensus Β· line only
1 -0.5 1.92 market consensus Β· line only
1 +0.5 1.86 market consensus Β· line only
Total
Over 22.5 1.85 market consensus Β· line only
Over 23.5 1.91 market consensus Β· line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
— — 1.86 53.8%
— — 1.92 52.1%
1.82 55.0% 1.83 54.6% 1.93 51.8%
— — 1.95 51.3%
— — 1.86 53.8%
1.97 50.8% 1.98 50.5% 1.84 54.4%
— — 1.83 54.6%
— — 1.92 52.1%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
Over 22.5 1.89 52.9% 1.87 53.5% 1.80 55.6%
Over 23.5 — — 1.91 52.4%
Under 22.5 1.89 52.9% 1.93 51.8% 1.98 50.5%
Under 23.5 — — 1.86 53.8%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
1.71 58.5% 1.67 59.9% 1.71 58.5%
2.15 46.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.10 47.6%
Match center
Merida Aguilar D
D
02.08.2026 Championat
Merida Aguilar D Kh. Khaume Munar Khaume Munar (Spain) 2 7 6 β€” R. Rinki Khidzikata (Australia) 0 6 3 1-y krug
0 Wins
0 Losses
- Sets won
- Sets lost
0% Win percentage
Draxl L
D D
02.08.2026 Championat
A. Adolfo Daniel Valekho (Paraguay) 0 3 SR Ts. Tszyunchen Shan Tszyunchen Shan (China) 2 6 1-y krug Draxl L
03.08.2026 Championat
M. Matteo Berrettini (Italy) M. Draxl L
0 Wins
0 Losses
- Sets won
- Sets lost
0% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMerida Aguilar D - Draxl L

Merida Aguilar D
0 matches total
Draxl L
Biggest win β€” largest score margin
Highest-scoring match β€” most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw β€” draw with the most goals

Match history

Event
Monreal