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ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard
ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard
1 round 03.08.2026 18:30 UTC Match prediction

Shimabukuro S - Cilic M

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard
ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard 1-y krug hard 03.08.2026 18:30 UTC Finished
03.08.2026 18:30 UTC 1-y krug Finished
Shimabukuro S
Shimabukuro S Japan
W L L L W
Cilic M
Cilic M Croatia
L L L W W
0:2 6:7 1:6
1 2 GP
Shimabukuro S 6 1 0
Cilic M 7 6 2
1 2
Odds
P1 2.25 42.9% BetBoom
P2 1.69 57.1% BetBoom
Stadium: IGA Stadium. Kort Rodzhers Coverage: hard
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

Japan Country Croatia
- Rating -
29 Age 37
183 Height (cm) 198
83 Weight (kg) 89
Pravsha Hand Pravsha
Q Seed 0
hard Coverage hard
1 H2H 1

Form over the last year

Shimabukuro S
36% 5 / 14
36% 5 / 14
Sintetika
no data
clay
no data
grass
3 iz 6
hard
2 iz 8
Cilic M
44% 16 / 36
44% 16 / 36
Sintetika
no data
clay
3 iz 8
grass
2 iz 5
hard
11 iz 23

Head-to-head history

Monreal

Shimabukuro S go head-to-head with Cilic M on August 3, 2026 in the ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard.

Recent form (W-D-L): Shimabukuro S 2-0-3, Cilic M 2-0-3. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 45% to win. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Cilic M — 55%

Pure model vs market (2 · Cilic M): model 42% · market 57% Δ −15 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Shimabukuro S44.8%
2 · Cilic M55.2%

Model estimate: win Shimabukuro S 44.8%, win Cilic M 55.2%. Model favourite — Cilic M.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Cilic M (odds1.50) Score 1:2 confidence 61% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Shimabukuro Sh
  • • 🇯🇵 — Chilich M
  • • 🇭🇷 (tennis)
  • • Shimabukuro Sh
  • • 🇯🇵: forma VPPPP (1-4)
  • • Chilich M
  • • 🇭🇷: forma PVVP (2)
  • • liniya na pik P2 1.45→1.50 (udlinilas — rynok dreyfuet vs)
  • • Model backs Chilich M
  • • 🇭🇷: probability 61% vs 67% on the line (odds 1.50)
  • • no edge over the line (-5 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Shimabukuro S - Cilic M August 3, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Cilic M.

Line favourite Fonbet: Cilic M. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 2.25 / 2 1.01
  • Glicko: Shimabukuro S 44.8% / Cilic M 55.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.2% 4 books · best price +1.2%
1 43.0%
2 57.0%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 2.70 ↓ 2.20
Winner 2 1.45 ↑ 1.65

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Shimabukuro S
6-4WLLLWWLWWW
scored 1.4conceded 0.8
Cilic M
5-5WLWLLWWLLW
scored 1.1conceded 1.4

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Match center
Stadium IGA Stadium. Kort Rodzhers
Start 03.08.2026 18:30 UTC
Market 1 31.0% @ 2.25 / 2 69.0% @ 1.01
Stage 1-y krug
Coverage hard
Form 7 matches
H2H 3
Match center

Shimabukuro S - Cilic M

Onlayn translyatsiya tennisnogo matcha So Simabukuro - Marin Chilich. Monreal. Vsya informatsiya: statistika, novosti, intervyu, foto

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Championat match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Donor check 2 block. lineup_availability, officials
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Movement
More needed
Lineup / squad source needed
Referees source needed
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 0:2
Events 0
Statistics 0
Set Shimabukuro S Cilic M Result
Set 1 6 7 6:7
Set 2 1 6 1:6
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H away - 55.2% fact: away hit / ROI 69.0% / Brier 0.401 / LogLoss 0.593
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H away - 50.6% fact: away hit / ROI 69.0% / Brier 0.488 / LogLoss 0.681
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Shimabukuro S 43.3% 44.8%
Cilic M 56.7% 55.2% market and model agree
1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 44.8% / 55.2% probabilities
Rating 1,601 / 1,425 Shimabukuro S / Cilic M
RD 128 / 222 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,346-1,856 / 980-1,870 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 55.2%
1 2.19 market consensus · no value · model 44.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.55 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.20 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 2.25 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 3.95 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 20.5 1.13 Fonbet · line only
Over 21.5 7.20 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
1.96 51.0% 1.92 52.1% —
1.98 50.5% 1.98 50.5% —
— — 1.20 83.3%
— — 1.23 81.3%
— — 1.13 88.5%
— — 1.03 97.1%
— — 1.05 95.2%
— — 5.10 19.6%
— — 1.55 64.5%
1.83 54.6% 1.88 53.2% 1.73 57.8%
1.81 55.3% 1.83 54.6% 1.73 57.8%
— — 1.30 76.9%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 20.5 — — 1.13 88.5%
Over 21.5 — — 7.20 13.9%
Over 22.5 1.80 55.6% 1.82 55.0% 8.50 11.8%
Over 23.5 — — 4.30 23.3%
Over 24.5 — — 1.65 60.6%
Over 25.5 — — 2.20 45.5%
Over 26.5 — — 3.10 32.3%
Over 27.5 — — 1.85 54.1%
Over 28.5 — — 1.95 51.3%
Over 29.5 — — 2.05 48.8%
Over 30.5 — — 2.00 50.0%
Under 20.5 — — 5.10 19.6%
Under 21.5 — — 1.05 95.2%
Under 22.5 1.99 50.3% 2.00 50.0% 1.03 97.1%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
2.25 44.4% 2.18 45.9% 16.00 6.3% 2.14 46.7%
1.65 60.6% 1.69 59.2% 1.01 99.0% 1.69 59.2%
Match center
Shimabukuro S
W L L L W
2026-08-01 2026 Montreal, Canada, Qualifying
Shimabukuro S Shimabukuro S 2:0 Budkov Kjaer N
2026-07-29 2026 Los Cabos, Mexico
Shimabukuro S Shimabukuro S 1:2 Pacheco Mendez R
2026-06-30 2026 Wimbledon, London, Great Britain
Shimabukuro S Shimabukuro S 1:3 Faria J
2026-06-17 2026 Halle, Germany
Shimabukuro S Tiafoe F 2:0 Shimabukuro S
2026-06-16 2026 Halle, Germany
Shimabukuro S Griekspoor T 1:2 Shimabukuro S
2 Wins
3 Losses
1.2 Sets won
1.6 Sets lost
40% Win percentage
Cilic M
L L L W W
2026-06-29 2026 Wimbledon, London, Great Britain
Cilic M 0:3 Medvedev D Cilic M
2026-06-16 2026 London, Great Britain
Humbert U 2:0 Cilic M Cilic M
2026-06-12 2026 s-Hertogenbosch, Netherlands
Medvedev D 2:1 Cilic M Cilic M
2026-06-11 2026 s-Hertogenbosch, Netherlands
Borges N 1:2 Cilic M Cilic M
2026-06-08 2026 s-Hertogenbosch, Netherlands
Cilic M 2:1 Shapovalov D Cilic M
2 Wins
3 Losses
1.0 Sets won
1.8 Sets lost
40% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyShimabukuro S - Cilic M

Shimabukuro S
0 matches total
Cilic M
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Event
Monreal