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AI verdict

AI pick Mensik J win probability ~72% confidence High best odds 1.32

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Mensik J. Full breakdown below.

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ATP Cincinnati, USA Men Singles
ATP Cincinnati, USA Men Singles
15.08.2026 14:00 UTC

Bellucci M - Mensik J

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis ATP Cincinnati, USA Men Singles
ATP Cincinnati, USA Men Singles hard 15.08.2026 14:00 UTC Not started
15.08.2026 14:00 UTC Not started
Bellucci M
Bellucci M
Rank #81 Elo 751
53Average Form
W L L L W W W L
Mensik J
Mensik J
Rank #16 Elo 2395
69Average Form
L W W W L W W L
-:-
Coverage: hard
Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Bellucci M Mensik J
Win % 54.3% 60.6%
Hard % 56.3% 63.4%
Clay % 46% 59.7%
Grass % 58.3% 41.2%
Deciding set % 46.7% 51.9%
Tie-breaks % 53.9% 57.1%
Titles (total) 4 3
Last 10 WLLLWWWLWW LWWWLWLWLL

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

- Country -
#81 Rating #16
25 Age 20
1.75m Height (cm) 1.93m
77kg Weight (kg) 83kg
Left Hand Right
- Seed -
hard Coverage hard
0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

Bellucci M Mensik J
Aces per match 5.57 10.96
Double faults per match 2.86 3.21
Breaks per match 2.43 1.8

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Mattia Bellucci
Rank:81 Elo: 751
W L L L W W W L
Jakub Mensik
Rank:16 Elo: 2395
L W W W L W W L
Elo favourite:Mensik J (edge +1644 Elo)

Hard

Mattia BellucciJakub Mensik
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 56.5% 13 / 23 Matches 71.4% 15 / 21 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 54.1% 20 / 37 Matches 65.5% 19 / 29 Matches

Clay

Mattia BellucciJakub Mensik
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 53.9% 7 / 13 Matches 50.0% 3 / 6 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 53.9% 7 / 13 Matches 50.0% 3 / 6 Matches

Grass

Mattia BellucciJakub Mensik
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 55.6% 5 / 9 Matches 0.0% 0 / 1 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 55.6% 5 / 9 Matches 0.0% 0 / 1 Matches

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Mattia Bellucci Jakub Mensik
H2H wins 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Sets 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Wins this year 53.2% 25 / 47 Matches 69.2% 27 / 39 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 53.2% 33 / 62 Matches 66.0% 31 / 47 Matches
Current rank 81 16

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Mattia Bellucci Jakub Mensik
Prize money (career) $1,784,259 USD $1,390,240 USD
Rating 81 16
Age 25 20
Height 1.75m 1.93m
Weight 77kg 83kg
Playing hand Left-handed Right-handed

Win percentage (match / set)

Mattia Bellucci Jakub Mensik
Match Wins 53 % 69 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 56 % 64 %
Match Wins (5 Sets) 0 % 89 %
Wins in Straight Sets 38 % 38 %
Wins From Behind 12 % 29 %
Won At Least 1 Set 64 % 92 %
Set 1 Win 53 % 62 %
Set 2 Win 49 % 69 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Mattia Bellucci Jakub Mensik Match total
Average Games in a Set 10.26 10.05 10.16
Over 6.5 100 % 96 % 98 %
Over 7.5 96 % 93 % 95 %
Over 8.5 87 % 86 % 87 %
Over 9.5 60 % 54 % 57 %
Over 10.5 36 % 32 % 34 %
Over 11.5 36 % 32 % 34 %

Aces

Mattia Bellucci Jakub Mensik Match total
Aces Per Match 5.57 10.96 16.53
Most Aces in a match 48 % 82 % N/A
1+ 93 % 100 % 98 %
2+ 89 % 96 % 98 %
3+ 80 % 93 % 96 %
4+ 68 % 89 % 91 %
5+ 57 % 89 % 89 %

Breaks

Mattia Bellucci Jakub Mensik Match total
Breaks Per Match 2.43 1.8 4.23
Over 0.5 93 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 91 % 29 % 98 %
Over 2.5 36 % 21 % 93 %
Over 3.5 2 % 14 % 42 %
Over 4.5 2 % 4 % 31 %
Over 5.5 2 % 0 % 30 %

Tie-breaks

Mattia Bellucci Jakub Mensik Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.4 0.57 0.49
Over 0.5 31 % 50 % 41 %
Over 1.5 9 % 7 % 8 %
Under 0.5 69 % 50 % 41 %
Under 1.5 91 % 93 % 8 %

Double faults

Mattia Bellucci Jakub Mensik Match total
Double Faults Per Match 2.86 3.21 6.07
Over 0.5 (1+) 91 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 84 % 89 % 97 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 57 % 61 % 88 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 30 % 36 % 79 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 14 % 18 % 62 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 9 % 7 % 42 %

Net points

Mattia Bellucci Jakub Mensik Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 7.19 8.29 15.48
Over 4.5 (5+) 65 % 75 % 70 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 63 % 75 % 69 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 50 % 71 % 61 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 45 % 58 % 52 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 35 % 46 % 41 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 28 % 42 % 35 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 4.60 22.3% BetBoom
P2 1.32 77.7% BetBoom

Bellucci M face Mensik J on August 15, 2026 in the ATP Cincinnati, USA Men Singles.

Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Mensik J — 72%

1 · Bellucci M27.7%
market 26%
2 · Mensik J ✓ Pick72.3%
market 74%

Model estimate: win Bellucci M 27.7%, win Mensik J 72.3%. Model favourite — Mensik J.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown
AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Mensik J (odds1.21) Score 0:2 confidence 76%
  • • Beluchchi M
  • • 🇮🇹 — Menshik Ya
  • • 🇨🇿 (tennis)
  • • Beluchchi M
  • • 🇮🇹: forma VPVVP (3-2)
  • • Menshik Ya
  • • 🇨🇿: forma PVVVP (3-2)
  • • Model backs Menshik Ya
  • • 🇨🇿: probability 76% vs 83% on the line (odds 1.21)
  • • no edge over the line (-7 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Bellucci M - Mensik J August 15, 2026

Tennis math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Mensik J. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 4.60 / 2 1.32

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.2% 6 books · best price +2.4%
1 25.7%
2 ✓ Pick 74.3%

Odds source: consensus of 6 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon, Pinnacle). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Bellucci M
25%
4.60
Mensik J
75%
1.32
Total
Over 9.5
51%
1.85
Under 9.5
49%
1.90

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Bellucci M
6-4WWLWWWLLLW
scored 1.5conceded 1.1
Mensik J
5-5LLWLWLWWWL
scored 1.5conceded 1.6

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Match center
Start 15.08.2026 14:00 UTC
Market 1 22.3% @ 4.60 / 2 77.7% @ 1.32
Coverage hard
Form 6 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Mensik J 72%
💹 Market Mensik J 74%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Bellucci M - Mensik J

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 1/5 recent games
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Bellucci M 25.7% 29.2% market and model agree
Mensik J 74.3% 70.8% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko27.7% · +Elo prior (weight0.25).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 27.7% / 72.3% probabilities
Rating 1,702 / 1,877 Bellucci M / Mensik J
RD 152 / 120 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,398-2,005 / 1,638-2,117 strength interval

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.27 market consensus · no value · model 72.3%
1 3.88 market consensus · no value · model 27.7%
Total
Over 0.5 2.48 market consensus · line only
Over 10.5 3.20 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Betcity Leon
— 2.03 49.3%
1.93 51.8% —
— 1.76 56.8%
1.87 53.5% —

Total

Outcome Betcity Kambi BetMGM
Over 0.5 — 2.48 40.3%
Over 2.5 — 2.55 39.2%
Over 4.5 — 1.74 57.5%
Over 5.5 — 2.05 48.8%
Over 6.5 — 1.01 99.0%
Over 7.5 — 1.08 92.6%
Over 8.5 — 1.26 79.4%
Over 9.5 — 1.85 54.1%
Over 10.5 — 3.20 31.3%
Over 12.5 — 4.50 22.2%
Over 19.5 — 1.44 69.4%
Over 20.5 — 1.58 63.3%
Over 21.5 2.00 50.0% 1.76 56.8%
Over 22.5 — 2.02 49.5%
Over 23.5 — 2.28 43.9%
Over 24.5 — 2.35 42.6%
Under 21.5 1.80 55.6% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet Leon Pinnacle
4.40 22.7% 4.60 21.7% 3.40 29.4% 3.40 29.4% 3.60 27.8% 3.85 26.0%
1.21 82.6% 1.20 83.3% 1.32 75.8% 1.32 75.8% 1.28 78.1% 1.30 77.0%
Match center
Bellucci M
W
14.08 00:30 UTC ATP - Singles: Tsintsinnati 🇺🇸, hard
Bellucci M 2:0 Svayda Z. 🇺🇸Svayda Z. 🇺🇸
1 Wins
0 Losses
2.0 Sets won
0.0 Sets lost
100% Win percentage
Mensik J
L W W W L
11.08 22:00 UTC+0 ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard
Mensik J 0:2 Shelton B. 🇺🇸Shelton B. 🇺🇸
09.08 23:35 UTC+0 ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard
Mensik J 2:0 Van de Zandskhyulp B. 🇳🇱Van de Zandskhyulp B. 🇳🇱
07.08 22:00 UTC+0 ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard
Mensik J 2:0 Atman T. 🇫🇷Atman T. 🇫🇷
05.08 22:00 UTC+0 ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard
Mensik J 2:1 Firnli Dzh. 🇬🇧Firnli Dzh. 🇬🇧
30.07 12:00 UTC+0 ATP - Singles: Vashington 🇺🇸, hard
Mensik J 1:2 Nakasima B. 🇺🇸Nakasima B. 🇺🇸
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.4 Sets won
1.0 Sets lost
60% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyBellucci M - Mensik J

Bellucci M
0 matches total
Mensik J
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

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Frequently asked questions

When does Bellucci M vs Mensik J start?

August 15, 2026.