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ATP. Umag
ATP. Umag International
2-й круг 15.07.2026 17:09 MSK Match prediction

Etcheverri T-M - Merida Aguilar D

Tennis ATP. Umag
ATP. Umag 2-й круг Грунт 15.07.2026 17:09 MSK Finished
15.07.2026 17:09 MSK 2-й круг Finished
Etcheverri T-M
Etcheverri T-M Аргентина Seed 30
Merida Aguilar D
Merida Aguilar D Испания Seed 82
W
0:2 5:7 4:6
1 2 GP
Etcheverri T-M 5 4 0
Merida Aguilar D 7 6 2
1 2
Odds
P1 2.25 51.1% BetBoom
P2 2.35 48.9% BetBoom
Stadium: Стелла Марис. Студенац Арена Coverage: Грунт
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

Аргентина Country Испания
- Rating -
26 Age 21
196 Height (cm) 188
82 Weight (kg) 80
Right Hand Right
3 Seed 0
Грунт Coverage Грунт
2 H2H 2

Form over the last year

Etcheverri T-M
55% 33 / 60
55% 33 / 60
Синтетика
no data
Грунт
16 из 26
Трава
1 из 5
Хард
16 из 29
Merida Aguilar D
57% 8 / 14
57% 8 / 14
Синтетика
no data
Грунт
7 из 11
Трава
1 из 2
Хард
0 из 1

Head-to-head history

Таймлайн Томас Мартин Этчеверри 1:0 Даниэль Мерида-Агилар 1:1 Томас Мартин Этчеверри 2:1 Даниэль Мерида-Агилар 2:2 Томас Мартин Этчеверри 3:2
Статистика 0 Эйсы 0 0 Двойные ошибки 0 19 Розыгрыши 12 84% 16/19 Попадание первой подачи 8/12 67% 81% 13/16 Выигрыш п
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Etcheverri T-M — 58%

Pure model vs market (1 · Etcheverri T-M): model 48% · market 7% Δ +41 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Etcheverri T-M58.2%
market7%
2 · Merida Aguilar D41.8%
market93%

Model estimate: win Etcheverri T-M 58.2%, win Merida Aguilar D 41.8%. Model favourite — Etcheverri T-M.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Etcheverri T-M (odds1.60) confidence 55% ✗ outcome missed

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Etcheverri T-M - Merida Aguilar D 15 июля 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Merida Aguilar D.

Line favourite Fonbet: Merida Aguilar D. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 13.00 / 2 1.02
  • Glicko: Etcheverri T-M 58.2% / Merida Aguilar D 41.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.7%
1 7.3%
2 92.7%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Победитель П1 1.50 ↑ 2.25
Победитель П2 2.65 ↓ 1.62

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Match center
Stadium Стелла Марис. Студенац Арена
Start 15.07.2026 17:09 MSK
Stage 2-й круг
Coverage Грунт
Form 8 matches
H2H 4
Match center

Etcheverri T-M - Merida Aguilar D

Итоговый протокол и результаты теннисного матча Томас Мартин Этчеверри - Даниэль Мерида-Агилар, 15 июля 2026. Умаг. Обзор и статистика матча, точный счет. Томас Мартин Этчеверри - Даниэль Мерида-Агилар, кто победил.

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Championat match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Donor check 1 block. officials
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Lineup / squad Line
More needed
Referees source needed
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 0:2
Events 0
Statistics 0
Set Etcheverri T-M Merida Aguilar D Result
Set 0 5 7 5:7
Set 1 4 6 4:6
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Etcheverri T-M 59.4% 58.2% market and model agree
Merida Aguilar D 40.6% 41.8%
1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 58.2% / 41.8% probabilities
Rating 1,362 / 1,682 Etcheverri T-M / Merida Aguilar D
RD 252 / 254 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 857-1,867 / 1,173-2,191 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: value не найден

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 41.8%
1 1.58 market consensus · no value · model 58.2%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.65 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.70 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 2.10 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 2.02 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 19.5 1.60 Fonbet · line only
Over 20.5 1.18 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
П1 -0.5 — — 2.10 47.6%
П1 -1.5 — — 1.75 57.1%
П1 -2.5 1.85 54.1% 1.92 52.1% —
П2 +0.5 — — 1.70 58.8%
П2 +1.5 — — 1.01 99.0%
П2 +2.5 1.89 52.9% 1.88 53.2% 1.02 98.0%
П2 +3.5 — — 1.08 92.6%
П2 +4.5 — — 3.85 26.0%
П2 +5.5 — — 4.20 23.8%
П2 -0.5 — — 1.65 60.6%
П2 -1.5 — — 2.00 50.0%
П2 -2.5 — — 1.73 57.8%
П2 -3.5 — — 1.57 63.7%
П2 -4.5 — — 1.65 60.6%
П2 -5.5 — — 1.35 74.1%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
ТБ 19.5 — — 1.60 62.5%
ТБ 20.5 — — 1.18 84.8%
ТБ 21.5 — — 1.20 83.3%
ТБ 22.5 1.92 52.1% 1.93 51.8% 5.10 19.6%
ТБ 23.5 — — 1.62 61.7%
ТБ 24.5 — — 5.60 17.9%
ТБ 25.5 — — 7.30 13.7%
ТБ 26.5 — — 1.70 58.8%
ТБ 27.5 — — 2.10 47.6%
ТБ 28.5 — — 1.92 52.1%
ТМ 19.5 — — 2.20 45.5%
ТМ 20.5 — — 4.30 23.3%
ТМ 21.5 — — 3.90 25.6%
ТМ 22.5 1.82 55.0% 1.87 53.5% 1.13 88.5%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
П1 1.55 64.5% 1.60 62.5% 13.00 7.7% 1.59 62.9%
П2 2.35 42.6% 2.35 42.6% 1.02 98.0% 2.32 43.1%
Match center
Etcheverri T-M
D
14.07.2026 Championat
Etcheverri T-M Т. Титуан Дрог (Франция) 2 3 6 6 5 — А. Александр Блокс (Бельгия) 1 6 2 0 · 1-й круг
0 Wins
0 Losses
- Sets won
- Sets lost
0% Win percentage
Merida Aguilar D
W
14.07 19:14 МСК ATP. Umag
Merida Aguilar D 2:0 Sheshko Zh
1 Wins
0 Losses
2.0 Sets won
0.0 Sets lost
100% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyEtcheverri T-M - Merida Aguilar D

Etcheverri T-M
0 matches total
Merida Aguilar D
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Event
Таймлайн Томас Мартин Этчеверри 1:0 Даниэль Мерида-Агилар 1:1 Томас Мартин Этчеверри 2:1 Даниэль Мерида-Агилар 2:2 Томас Мартин Этчеверри 3:2
Event
Статистика 0 Эйсы 0 0 Двойные ошибки 0 19 Розыгрыши 12 84% 16/19 Попадание первой подачи 8/12 67% 81% 13/16 Выигрыш п