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ATP. Washington. Hard. Qualification International

1 round 28.07.2026 16:40 UTC

Michelsen A - McDonald M

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Michelsen A — 75%

Pure model vs market (1 · Michelsen A): model 65% · market 63% Δ +2 pp model estimate matches the market

1 · Michelsen A ✓ Pick74.7%

market63%

2 · McDonald M25.3%

market37%

Model estimate: win Michelsen A 74.7%, win McDonald M 25.3%. Model favourite — Michelsen A.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Michelsen A (odds1.28) Score 2:1 confidence 65%

• Mikelsen A: forma VVVPV (4-1)
• Makdonald M: forma pp (0-2)
• Model backs Mikelsen A: probability 65% vs 78% on the line (odds 1.28)
• no edge over the line (-13 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Michelsen A - McDonald M July 28, 2026

Tennis math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Michelsen A. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.50 / 2 2.55

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 5.9%

1 ✓ Pick 63.0%

2 37.0%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Pobeditel P1 1.28 ↓ 1.25

Pobeditel P2 3.70 ↑ 3.95

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

LIVE

Now in play

serve: McDonald M · sets 0:0 · games 3-4 · game 40:15 · aces 3:2 · DF 2:1 · BP!

Current match situation. Updates every ~3 min.

LIVE

1X2 probabilities (live, from the line)

63% 37%

Michelsen A (1) McDonald M (2)

Implied probabilities from the Fonbet live line (1/odds, normalized). For reference.

Tennis ATP. Washington. Hard. Qualification

ATP. Washington. Hard. Qualification 1-y krug hard 28.07.2026 16:40 UTC Not started

28.07.2026 16:40 UTC 1-y krug Not started

Michelsen A USA Seed 40

McDonald M USA Seed 145

-:-

Odds

P1 1.25 76.0% BetBoom

P2 3.95 24.0% BetBoom

Stadium: Tennisnyy Central im. Uilyama Fittsdzheralda. Chetvertyy kort Coverage: hard

Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

USA Country USA

- Rating -

21 Age 31

193 Height (cm) 178

79 Weight (kg) 73

Pravsha Hand Pravsha

40 Seed 145

hard Coverage hard

L 1 H2H 0

Form over the last year

Michelsen A

52% 25 / 48

52% 25 / 48

Sintetika

no data

clay

6 iz 12

grass

0 iz 1

hard

19 iz 35

McDonald M

28% 5 / 18

28% 5 / 18

Sintetika

no data

clay

1 iz 2

grass

0 iz 1

hard

4 iz 15

Head-to-head history

2023

ATP. Washington. Hard. Qualification

Michelsen A 0

McDonald M 0

Match center

Stadium Tennisnyy Central im. Uilyama Fittsdzheralda. Chetvertyy kort

Start 28.07.2026 16:40 UTC

Stage 1-y krug

Coverage hard

Form 10 matches

H2H 1

Match center

Michelsen A - McDonald M

Onlayn translyatsiya tennisnogo matches Aleks Mikhelsen - Makkenzi Makdonald. Vashington (m). Vsya informatsiya: statistika, novosti, intervyu, foto

Form 1/1 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Flashscore match data source checked

Odds match data source checked

Championat match data source checked

Bookiesapi match data source checked

Line depth match data source checked

Donor check 2 block. lineup_availability, officials

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Movement

More needed

Lineup / squad source needed

Referees source needed

Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Michelsen A 75.7% 74.7% market and model agree

McDonald M 24.3% 25.3%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model

P1 / P2 74.7% / 25.3% probabilities

Rating 1,788 / 1,247 Michelsen A / McDonald M

RD 178 / 250 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,432-2,144 / 748-1,746 strength interval

HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.55 Fonbet · no value · model 25.3%

1 1.50 Fonbet · value +12.0% · model 74.7%

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.40 Fonbet · line only

2 +0.5 1.93 Fonbet · line only

1 -0.5 1.50 Fonbet · line only

1 +0.5 1.82 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 19.5 1.60 Fonbet · line only

Over 20.5 1.58 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome	Fonbet
	1.82 55.0%
	1.70 58.8%
	1.50 66.7%
	1.60 62.5%
	1.82 55.0%
	1.85 54.1%
	2.25 44.4%
	2.45 40.8%
	4.40 22.7%
	1.93 51.8%
	2.02 49.5%
	2.40 41.7%
	2.20 45.5%
	1.95 51.3%
	1.90 52.6%
	1.57 63.7%
	1.48 67.6%
	1.17 85.5%

Total

Outcome	Fonbet	Leon
Over 19.5	1.60 62.5%	—
Over 20.5	1.58 63.3%	—
Over 21.5	1.70 58.8%	1.82 55.0%
Over 22.5	1.90 52.6%	2.02 49.5%
Over 23.5	1.88 53.2%	—
Over 24.5	1.87 53.5%	—
Over 25.5	2.02 49.5%	—
Over 26.5	2.00 50.0%	—
Under 19.5	2.20 45.5%	—
Under 20.5	2.25 44.4%	—
Under 21.5	2.02 49.5%	—
Under 22.5	1.90 52.6%	—
Under 23.5	1.92 52.1%	—
Under 24.5	1.83 54.6%	—
Under 25.5	1.70 58.8%	—
Under 26.5	1.72 58.1%	—

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Fonbet	Leon
	1.50 66.7%	1.25 80.0%
	2.55 39.2%	3.85 26.0%

Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 2-0-0

2024-08-12 · Aleks Mikelsen 2:0 Makkenzi Makdonald

2023-07-21 · Aleks Mikelsen 2:0 Makkenzi Makdonald

Source: ruscore

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.26 (Winline) · 2 4 (Betcity)

Bookmaker	1	2
Pari	1.25	3.95
Winline	1.26	3.9
Fonbet	1.25	3.95
Betcity	1.24	4

Source: ruscore · line comparison

Michelsen A

28.07.2026 Championat

Michelsen A 6 F. Frensis Tiafo Frensis Tiafo 🇺🇸 1 6 3 4 T. Terens Atman (France) 2 4 6 1-y krug

0 Wins

0 Losses

- Sets won

- Sets lost

0% Win percentage

McDonald M

26.07 17:00 UTC ATP. Vashington

McDonald M 0:2 Svayda T

0 Wins

1 Losses

0.0 Sets won

2.0 Sets lost

0% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head historyMichelsen A - McDonald M

Michelsen A

0 matches total

McDonald M

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Event

2023 Nyuport grass 1/4 finala 4 M. Makkenzi Makdonald Makkenzi Makdonald 🇺🇸 0 3 LD A. Aleks Mikhelsen Aleks Mikhelsen 🇺🇸 2 6 ; CHAMP('tournamentTabs'