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AI verdict

AI pick Overbeck, Carl Emil win probability ~65% confidence High best odds 1.44

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Overbeck, Carl Emil. Full breakdown below.

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Challenger Men - Singles: Mayorka (Spain) - Qualification, Hard
Challenger Men - Singles: Mayorka (Spain) - Qualification, Hard
31.08.2026 11:00 UTC Match prediction

Overbeck, Carl Emil vs Peniston R — Tennis prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis Challenger Men - Singles: Mayorka (Spain) - Qualification, Hard
Challenger Men - Singles: Mayorka (Spain) - Qualification, Hard hard 31.08.2026 11:00 UTC Finished
31.08.2026 11:00 UTC Finished
Overbeck, Carl Emil
Overbeck, Carl Emil
Rank #455 Elo 103
22Very Bad Form
L L W W L L L W
Peniston R
Peniston R
Rank #296 Elo 190
76Good Form
W W L L L L L W
2:0
Coverage: hard
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Overbeck, Carl Emil — 65%

1 · Overbeck, Carl Emil ✓ Pick64.9%
market 65%
2 · Peniston R35.1%
market 35%

Model estimate: win Overbeck, Carl Emil 64.9%, win Peniston R 35.1%. Model favourite — Overbeck, Carl Emil.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick confident

Match winner — Overbeck, Carl Emil

Model confidence 66% ~79% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Overbeck, Carl Emil - Peniston R August 31, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Overbeck, Carl Emil.

Line favourite market consensus: Overbeck, Carl Emil. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 1.44 / 2 2.85
  • Glicko: Overbeck, Carl Emil 64.9% / Peniston R 35.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 7.9% 5 books
1 ✓ Pick 65.0%
2 35.1%

Odds source: consensus of 5 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Overbeck, Carl Emil
65%
1.44
Peniston R
35%
2.85
Total
Over 21.5
50%
1.87
Under 21.5
50%
1.89

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

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Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Overbeck C E Peniston R
Win % 67.9% 57.5%
Hard % 72.6% 61.5%
Clay % 61.7% 39.1%
Grass % 0% 45.2%
Deciding set % 65.4% 55.3%
Tie-breaks % 59.5% 43.3%
Titles (total) 4 6
Last 10 WWWWWLWWWW LLWWLLLLLL

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

- Country -
#455 Rating #296
30 Age 25
1.80m Height (cm) 1.93m
75kg Weight (kg) 82kg
- Hand -
- Seed -
hard Coverage hard
0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

Overbeck, Carl Emil Peniston R
Aces per match 1.67 7.67
Double faults per match 4.67 2.42
Breaks per match 3.17 1.88

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Ryan Peniston
Rank:455 Elo: 103
L L W W L L L W
Carl Emil Overbeck
Rank:296 Elo: 190
W W L L L L L W
Elo favourite:Overbeck, Carl Emil (edge +87 Elo)

Hard

Ryan PenistonCarl Emil Overbeck
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 25.0% 2 / 8 Matches 75.0% 27 / 36 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 60.0% 18 / 30 Matches 74.2% 46 / 62 Matches

Clay

Ryan PenistonCarl Emil Overbeck
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year N/A 0 / 0 Matches 0.0% 0 / 2 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months N/A 0 / 0 Matches 0.0% 0 / 3 Matches

Grass

Ryan PenistonCarl Emil Overbeck
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year N/A 0 / 0 Matches N/A 0 / 0 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months N/A 0 / 0 Matches N/A 0 / 0 Matches

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Ryan Peniston Carl Emil Overbeck
H2H wins 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Sets 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Wins this year 22.2% 2 / 9 Matches 75.6% 34 / 45 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 56.3% 18 / 32 Matches 73.6% 53 / 72 Matches
Current rank 455 296

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Ryan Peniston Carl Emil Overbeck
Prize money (career) $682,130 USD $9,002 USD
Rating 455 296
Age 30 25
Height 1.80m 1.93m
Weight 75kg 82kg

Win percentage (match / set)

Ryan Peniston Carl Emil Overbeck
Match Wins 22 % 76 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 25 % 71 %
Wins in Straight Sets 22 % 51 %
Wins From Behind 0 % 31 %
Won At Least 1 Set 56 % 82 %
Set 1 Win 33 % 69 %
Set 2 Win 44 % 64 %
Set 3 Win 0 % 79 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Ryan Peniston Carl Emil Overbeck Match total
Average Games in a Set 8.78 9.89 9.34
Over 6.5 88 % 95 % 92 %
Over 7.5 63 % 84 % 74 %
Over 8.5 50 % 71 % 61 %
Over 9.5 38 % 45 % 42 %
Over 10.5 13 % 26 % 20 %
Over 11.5 13 % 26 % 20 %

Aces

Ryan Peniston Carl Emil Overbeck Match total
Aces Per Match 1.67 7.67 9.34
Most Aces in a match 17 % 50 % N/A
1+ 83 % 92 % 100 %
2+ 50 % 92 % 100 %
3+ 33 % 83 % 92 %
4+ 0 % 58 % 84 %
5+ 0 % 58 % 84 %

Breaks

Ryan Peniston Carl Emil Overbeck Match total
Breaks Per Match 3.17 1.88 5.05
Over 0.5 100 % 92 % 100 %
Over 1.5 33 % 67 % 96 %
Over 2.5 33 % 0 % 96 %
Over 3.5 33 % 0 % 96 %
Over 4.5 0 % 0 % 50 %
Over 5.5 0 % 0 % 17 %

Tie-breaks

Ryan Peniston Carl Emil Overbeck Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.25 0.5 0.38
Over 0.5 25 % 39 % 32 %
Over 1.5 0 % 8 % 4 %
Under 0.5 75 % 61 % 32 %
Under 1.5 100 % 92 % 4 %

Double faults

Ryan Peniston Carl Emil Overbeck Match total
Double Faults Per Match 4.67 2.42 7.09
Over 0.5 (1+) 100 % 83 % 92 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 100 % 67 % 88 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 83 % 50 % 84 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 50 % 33 % 71 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 50 % 8 % 55 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 33 % 0 % 38 %

Net points

Ryan Peniston Carl Emil Overbeck Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 8.25 7.05 15.3
Over 4.5 (5+) 50 % 80 % 65 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 50 % 70 % 60 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 50 % 60 % 55 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 50 % 50 % 50 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 25 % 20 % 23 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 25 % 20 % 23 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 1.44 66.4% BetBoom
P2 2.85 33.6% BetBoom

Overbeck, Carl Emil take on Peniston R in tennis, in Challenger Men - Singles: Mayorka (Spain) - Qualification, Hard, on 31 August 2026. Our Glicko-2 rating model leans to Overbeck, Carl Emil: roughly 65% to win. The bookmaker consensus (5 books) implies about 65% for the same outcome.

Latest form: Overbeck, Carl Emil 4 won and 1 lost; Peniston R 0 won and 2 lost. Overbeck, Carl Emil arrive on a winning run. Glicko ratings: Overbeck, Carl Emil 2029, Peniston R 1491, a gap of 538 points.

Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is moderate. On a hit-rate basis the steadier pick tilts to a covered market on Overbeck, Carl Emil - double chance looks calmer than a clean win. Key markers: an edge of 538 Glicko rating points, the model's 65% for Overbeck, Carl Emil. Read on for team stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI AI prediction. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.

Match center
Start 31.08.2026 11:00 UTC
Market 1 66.4% @ 1.44 / 2 33.6% @ 2.85
Coverage hard
Form 5 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Overbeck, Carl Emil 65%
💹 Market Overbeck, Carl Emil 65%
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Match center

Overbeck, Carl Emil - Peniston R

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/2 recent games
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 2:0
Events 0
Statistics 20
Metric Overbeck, Carl Emil Peniston R SStats
Breyk-poynty realizovany 2/7 5/12 final
Points na prieme 42% (30/71) 54% (32/59) final
Eysy 0 1 final
Breyk-poynty otygrany 7/12 5/7 final
Dvoynye oshibki 12 4 final
Pervaya podacha, % 54% 59% final
Points na pervoy podache 59% (19/32) 62% (26/42) final
Points na vtoroy podache 30% (8/27) 52% (15/29) final
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage home - 64.9% fact: home hit / ROI 44.0% / Brier 0.246 / LogLoss 0.432
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage home - 51.8% fact: home hit / ROI 44.0% / Brier 0.465 / LogLoss 0.658
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Overbeck, Carl Emil 65.0% 58.2% market and model agree
Peniston R 35.1% 41.8% market and model agree
1X2: 5 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko64.9% · +Elo prior (weight0.48).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 64.9% / 35.1% probabilities
Rating 2,029 / 1,491 Overbeck, Carl Emil / Peniston R
RD 140 / 269 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,748-2,310 / 954-2,028 strength interval

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.67 market consensus · no value · model 35.1%
1 1.42 market consensus · no value · model 64.9%
Total
Over 21.5 1.86 market consensus · line only
Under 21.5 1.86 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
1.83 54.6% 1.86 53.8% 1.88 53.2%
1.87 53.5% 1.84 54.4% 1.86 53.8%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
Over 21.5 1.85 54.1% 1.87 53.5% 1.85 54.1%
Under 21.5 1.85 54.1% 1.83 54.6% 1.89 52.9%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet Leon
1.42 70.4% 1.37 73.0% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.43 69.9%
2.65 37.7% 2.85 35.1% 2.60 38.5% 2.60 38.5% 2.65 37.7%
Match center
Overbeck, Carl Emil
W W W L W
07.08 14:30 UTC+0 ITF Men - Singles: M25 Fano (Italy), clay
Overbeck, Carl Emil 2:0 Primucci L. 🇮🇹Primucci L. 🇮🇹
06.08 13:30 UTC+0 ITF Men - Singles: M25 Fano (Italy), clay
Overbeck, Carl Emil 2:1 D'Agostino S. 🇮🇹
05.08 08:00 UTC+0 ITF Men - Singles: M25 Fano (Italy), clay
Overbeck, Carl Emil 2:0 Noche G. M. 🇮🇹
02.08 10:00 UTC+0 ITF Men - Singles: M25 Gentofte (Denmark), clay
Overbeck, Carl Emil 1:2 Nesterov P. 🇧🇴
01.08 09:00 UTC+0 ITF Men - Singles: M25 Gentofte (Denmark), clay
Overbeck, Carl Emil 2:0 Ivanov I. 🇧🇴Ivanov I. 🇧🇴
4 Wins
1 Losses
1.8 Sets won
0.6 Sets lost
80% Win percentage
Peniston R
L L
24.08 16:30 UTC+0 Fonbet tennis live
Peniston R 1:2 Ivanov IvanIvanov Ivan
24.08 14:30 UTC+0 Rokhempton 2
Peniston R 1:2 Ivanov IvanIvanov Ivan
0 Wins
2 Losses
1.0 Sets won
2.0 Sets lost
0% Win percentage

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Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Overbeck, Carl Emil vs Peniston R?

By the PropickAI model, Overbeck, Carl Emil is favoured — about 65% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Overbeck, Carl Emil vs Peniston R?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Overbeck, Carl Emil. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Overbeck, Carl Emil vs Peniston R?

Live odds for Overbeck, Carl Emil vs Peniston R from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

When does Overbeck, Carl Emil vs Peniston R start?

August 31, 2026.