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AI verdict

AI pick Mashtakov N win probability ~83% confidence High best odds 1.11

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Mashtakov N. Full breakdown below.

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Challenger Men - Singles: Plovdiv 3 (Bulgaria) - Qualification, Clay
Challenger Men - Singles: Plovdiv 3 (Bulgaria) - Qualification, Clay
30.08.2026 14:00 UTC

Mashtakov N vs Basel, Valentin — Tennis prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis Challenger Men - Singles: Plovdiv 3 (Bulgaria) - Qualification, Clay
Challenger Men - Singles: Plovdiv 3 (Bulgaria) - Qualification, Clay clay 30.08.2026 14:00 UTC Not started
30.08.2026 14:00 UTC Not started
Mashtakov N
Mashtakov N
Rank #1106 Elo 14
31Bad Form
L W W W L L W W
Basel, Valentin
Basel, Valentin
Rank #646 Elo 54
65Average Form
W L L L L W L W
-:-
Coverage: clay
Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Mashtakov N Basel V
Win % 59.1% 42.5%
Hard % 65.2% 25%
Clay % 58.2% 43.7%
Grass % 0% 0%
Deciding set % 50% 44.2%
Tie-breaks % 67.5% 52.6%
Titles (total) 4 0
Last 10 LWWWWWWWWL LWLWLLWWLW

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

- Country -
#1106 Rating #646
22 Age 27
1.85m Height (cm) 1.75m
78kg Weight (kg) 77kg
- Hand -
- Seed -
clay Coverage clay
0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

Mashtakov N Basel, Valentin
Aces per match 2.26 3.00
Double faults per match 2.05 1.67
Breaks per match 2.18 9

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Valentin Basel
Rank:1106 Elo: 14
L W W W L L W W
Nikita Mashtakov
Rank:646 Elo: 54
W L L L L W L W
Elo favourite:Mashtakov N (edge +40 Elo)

Hard

Valentin BaselNikita Mashtakov
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 0.0% 0 / 2 Matches 50.0% 4 / 8 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 0.0% 0 / 3 Matches 50.0% 4 / 8 Matches

Clay

Valentin BaselNikita Mashtakov
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 33.3% 8 / 24 Matches 69.2% 18 / 26 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 31.3% 10 / 32 Matches 64.5% 20 / 31 Matches

Grass

Valentin BaselNikita Mashtakov
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year N/A 0 / 0 Matches N/A 0 / 0 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months N/A 0 / 0 Matches N/A 0 / 0 Matches

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Valentin Basel Nikita Mashtakov
H2H wins 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Sets 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Wins this year 30.8% 8 / 26 Matches 64.7% 22 / 34 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 28.6% 10 / 35 Matches 61.5% 24 / 39 Matches
Current rank 1106 646

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Valentin Basel Nikita Mashtakov
Prize money (career) $7,039 USD $37,478 USD
Rating 1106 646
Age 22 27
Height 1.85m 1.75m
Weight 78kg 77kg

Win percentage (match / set)

Valentin Basel Nikita Mashtakov
Match Wins 31 % 65 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 31 % 65 %
Wins in Straight Sets 19 % 47 %
Wins From Behind 5 % 20 %
Won At Least 1 Set 50 % 68 %
Set 1 Win 38 % 59 %
Set 2 Win 31 % 56 %
Set 3 Win 38 % 86 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Valentin Basel Nikita Mashtakov Match total
Average Games in a Set 9.69 9.26 9.48
Over 6.5 96 % 91 % 94 %
Over 7.5 85 % 85 % 85 %
Over 8.5 69 % 53 % 61 %
Over 9.5 50 % 38 % 44 %
Over 10.5 27 % 24 % 26 %
Over 11.5 27 % 24 % 26 %

Aces

Valentin Basel Nikita Mashtakov Match total
Aces Per Match 2.26 3.00 5.26
Most Aces in a match 37 % 33 % N/A
1+ 84 % 100 % 100 %
2+ 42 % 33 % 90 %
3+ 42 % 33 % 79 %
4+ 26 % 33 % 69 %
5+ 16 % 33 % 50 %

Breaks

Valentin Basel Nikita Mashtakov Match total
Breaks Per Match 2.18 9 11.18
Over 0.5 32 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 0 % 100 % 100 %
Over 2.5 0 % 100 % 100 %
Over 3.5 0 % 100 % 100 %
Over 4.5 0 % 100 % 69 %
Over 5.5 0 % 100 % 50 %

Tie-breaks

Valentin Basel Nikita Mashtakov Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.23 0.32 0.28
Over 0.5 19 % 29 % 24 %
Over 1.5 4 % 3 % 3 %
Under 0.5 81 % 71 % 24 %
Under 1.5 96 % 97 % 3 %

Double faults

Valentin Basel Nikita Mashtakov Match total
Double Faults Per Match 2.05 1.67 3.72
Over 0.5 (1+) 100 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 58 % 33 % 95 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 26 % 33 % 73 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 16 % 0 % 40 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 5 % 0 % 24 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 0 % 0 % 11 %

Net points

Valentin Basel Nikita Mashtakov Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 6.79 N/A N/A
Over 4.5 (5+) 58 % N/A N/A
Over 5.5 (6+) 58 % N/A N/A
Over 6.5 (7+) 58 % N/A N/A
Over 7.5 (8+) 42 % N/A N/A
Over 8.5 (9+) 33 % N/A N/A
Over 9.5 (10+) 25 % N/A N/A

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 1.11 86.0% BetBoom
P2 6.80 14.0% BetBoom

Mashtakov N face Basel, Valentin in tennis, in Challenger Men - Singles: Plovdiv 3 (Bulgaria) - Qualification, Clay, on 30 August 2026. Our Glicko-2 rating model leans to Mashtakov N: roughly 83% to win. Sportsbook prices (3 books) put that result at roughly 83%.

Recent form reads: Mashtakov N have 4 won and 1 lost of their last 5; Basel, Valentin have 3 won and 2 lost of 5. Glicko ratings: Mashtakov N 1732, Basel, Valentin 1546, a gap of 186 points.

Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is high. For reliability the safer lean is a protected market on Mashtakov N (double chance, say) rather than the outright win alone. Key markers: an edge of 186 Glicko rating points, the model's 83% for Mashtakov N. Read on for team stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI AI prediction. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Mashtakov N — 83%

1 · Mashtakov N ✓ Pick82.7%
market 83%
2 · Basel, Valentin17.3%
market 17%

Model estimate: win Mashtakov N 82.7%, win Basel, Valentin 17.3%. Model favourite — Mashtakov N.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick banker

Match winner — Mashtakov N

Model confidence 86% ~95% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Mashtakov N - Basel, Valentin August 30, 2026

Tennis math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Mashtakov N. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 1.11 / 2 6.80

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.0% 3 books
1 ✓ Pick 83.5%
2 16.5%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Mashtakov N
84%
1.11
Basel, Valentin
16%
6.80
Total
Over 19.5
46%
2.00
Under 19.5
54%
1.73

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

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Match center
Start 30.08.2026 14:00 UTC
Market 1 86.0% @ 1.11 / 2 14.0% @ 6.80
Coverage clay
Form 6 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Mashtakov N 83%
💹 Market Mashtakov N 83%
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Match center

Mashtakov N - Basel, Valentin

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Mashtakov N 83.5% 72.7% model more cautious than market
Basel, Valentin 16.5% 27.3%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko82.7% · +Elo prior (weight0.31).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 82.7% / 17.3% probabilities
Rating 1,732 / 1,546 Mashtakov N / Basel, Valentin
RD 131 / 175 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,470-1,993 / 1,197-1,895 strength interval

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 6.00 market consensus · no value · model 17.3%
1 1.10 market consensus · no value · model 82.7%
Total
Over 18.5 1.73 market consensus · line only
Over 19.5 2.00 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
1.70 58.8% 1.68 59.5% 1.76 56.8%
2.03 49.3% 2.05 48.8% 1.99 50.3%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
Over 18.5 1.73 57.8% 1.72 58.1%
Over 19.5 1.99 50.3% 2.00 50.0%
Under 18.5 1.99 50.3% 2.00 50.0%
Under 19.5 1.73 57.8% 1.72 58.1%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
1.11 90.1% 1.07 93.5% 1.11 90.1%
5.60 17.9% 6.80 14.7% 5.60 17.9%
Match center
Mashtakov N
L W W W W
29.08 10:35 UTC+0 ITF Men - Singles: M25 Poznan (Poland), clay
Mashtakov N 0:2 Mikhalski D. 🇵🇱
28.08 08:00 UTC+0 ITF Men - Singles: M25 Poznan (Poland), clay
Mashtakov N 2:1 Orlov V. 🇺🇦
27.08 08:00 UTC+0 ITF Men - Singles: M25 Poznan (Poland), clay
Mashtakov N 2:1 Kivattsev K. (World)Kivattsev K. (World)
26.08 09:30 UTC+0 ITF Men - Singles: M25 Poznan (Poland), clay
Mashtakov N 2:0 Zeuch T. 🇩🇪Zeuch T. 🇩🇪
22.08 08:00 UTC+0 ITF Men - Singles: M15 Mistelbach (Austria), clay
Mashtakov N 2:1 Zelinski M. 🇵🇱
4 Wins
1 Losses
1.6 Sets won
1.0 Sets lost
80% Win percentage
Basel, Valentin
L W W L W
27.08 11:25 UTC+0 ITF Men - Singles: M25 Poznan (Poland), clay
Basel, Valentin 0:2 Campana Lee G. 🇰🇷
26.08 10:35 UTC+0 World Tennis. Men. Poland
Basel, Valentin 2:1 Finkelsteyn A
26.08 09:30 UTC+0 ITF Men - Singles: M25 Poznan (Poland), clay
Basel, Valentin 2:1 Finkelsteyn A
03.08 08:00 UTC+0 Challenger Men - Singles: Plovdiv 2 (Bulgaria) - Qualifying, clay
Basel, Valentin 0:2 Marino P. 🇮🇹Marino P. 🇮🇹
01.08 13:30 UTC+0 Challenger Men - Singles: Plovdiv 2 (Bulgaria) - Qualifying, clay
Basel, Valentin 2:0 Dinev D. 🇧🇴
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.2 Sets won
1.2 Sets lost
60% Win percentage

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Frequently asked questions

What does PropickAI predict for Mashtakov N vs Basel, Valentin?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Mashtakov N. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Mashtakov N vs Basel, Valentin?

Live odds for Mashtakov N vs Basel, Valentin from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

When does Mashtakov N vs Basel, Valentin start?

August 30, 2026.