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Challenger Men - Singles: Bonn (Germany), clay
Challenger Men - Singles: Bonn (Germany), clay
28.07.2026 06:30 UTC Match prediction

Houkes M - Carballes Baena R

Tennis Challenger Men - Singles: Bonn (Germany), clay
Challenger Men - Singles: Bonn (Germany), clay clay 28.07.2026 06:30 UTC Finished
28.07.2026 06:30 UTC Finished
Houkes M
Houkes M
C
Carballes Baena R
1:2
Odds
P1 8.50 16.4% BetBoom
P2 1.67 83.6% BetBoom
Coverage: clay
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

- Country -
- Rating -
- Age -
- Height (cm) -
- Weight (kg) -
- Hand -
- Seed -
clay Coverage clay
0 H2H 0
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Carballes Baena R — 56%

Pure model vs market (2 · Carballes Baena R): model 53% · market 89% Δ −36 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Houkes M44.2%
2 · Carballes Baena R ✓ Pick55.8%

Model estimate: win Houkes M 44.2%, win Carballes Baena R 55.8%. Model favourite — Carballes Baena R.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Carballes Baena R (odds1.62) Score 1:2 confidence 57% ✓ outcome correct · exact score
  • • Khaukes M
  • • 🇳🇱 — Karbales Baena R
  • • 🇪🇸 (tennis)
  • • Khaukes M
  • • 🇳🇱: forma PVVPV (3-2)
  • • Karbales Baena R
  • • 🇪🇸: forma PVVVV (4-1)
  • • Model backs Karbales Baena R
  • • 🇪🇸: probability 57% vs 62% on the line (odds 1.62)
  • • no edge over the line (-5 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Houkes M - Carballes Baena R July 28, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Carballes Baena R.

Line favourite Fonbet: Carballes Baena R. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 8.50 / 2 1.04
  • Glicko: Houkes M 44.2% / Carballes Baena R 55.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 7.9%
1 10.9%
2 ✓ Pick 89.1%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 2.15 ↑ 8.50
Winner 2 1.62 ↓ 1.04

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Houkes M

no data

Carballes Baena R
7-3LWWLWLWWWW
scored 1.6conceded 1.0

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:5/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT

Google AI updated28.07.2026 07:21 UTC
1 44%
2 56% ✓ favourite
Score1:2 Total games: Over 21.5 Bet:Total games Bolshe 21.5
Per AI data H2H: 0:0
Claude updated28.07.2026 07:35 UTC
1 42%
2 58% ✓ favourite
Score1:2 Total games: Over 21.5 Bet:Over 21.5 games
Qwen updated28.07.2026 07:30 UTC
1 78% ✓ favourite
2 7%
Score2:0 Total games: Under 2.5 Bet:Win DAC Dunayska Streda
Per AI data H2H: 0-0
Kimi updated28.07.2026 07:42 UTC
1 44%
2 56% ✓ favourite
Score... Total games: ... Bet:...
Per AI data Form:... / ... H2H: ... Injuries:... Key:...
GLM 5.2 updated28.07.2026 07:44 UTC
1 42%
2 58% ✓ favourite
Score1:2 Total games: Over 22.5 Bet:2 (win Karbalesa Baeny)

AI consensus:2

AI 1 2 Score Total games Bet
Google AI 44% 56% 1:2 Over 21.5 Total games Bolshe 21.5
Claude 42% 58% 1:2 Over 21.5 Over 21.5 games
Qwen 78% 7% 2:0 Under 2.5 Win DAC Dunayska Streda
Kimi 44% 56% ... ... ...
GLM 5.2 42% 58% 1:2 Over 22.5
Match center
Start 28.07.2026 06:30 UTC
Coverage clay
Form 6 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Houkes M 50%
📐 Math model Carballes Baena R 56%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Houkes M - Carballes Baena R

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 1:2
Events 0
Statistics 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage away - 55.8% fact: away hit / ROI 67.0% / Brier 0.391 / LogLoss 0.584
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage away - 50.7% fact: away hit / ROI 67.0% / Brier 0.486 / LogLoss 0.679
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Houkes M 43.9% 44.2%
Carballes Baena R 56.1% 55.8% market and model agree
1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 44.2% / 55.8% probabilities
Rating 1,692 / 1,828 Houkes M / Carballes Baena R
RD 156 / 151 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,379-2,004 / 1,526-2,129 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.04 Fonbet · no value · model 55.8%
1 8.50 Fonbet · no value · model 44.2%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.82 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.35 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.88 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 2.90 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 19.5 1.75 Fonbet · line only
Over 20.5 2.10 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
1.94 51.6% 1.87 53.5% —
1.88 53.2% 1.78 56.2% —
— — 1.88 53.2%
— — 2.20 45.5%
— — 1.35 74.1%
— — 1.01 99.0%
— — 1.03 97.1%
— — 2.60 38.5%
— — 2.70 37.0%
— — 1.82 55.0%
1.79 55.9% 1.83 54.6% 1.60 62.5%
1.84 54.4% 1.92 52.1% 1.77 56.5%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 19.5 — — 1.75 57.1%
Over 20.5 — — 2.10 47.6%
Over 21.5 — — 1.75 57.1%
Over 22.5 1.97 50.8% 1.95 51.3% 1.70 58.8%
Over 23.5 — — 2.02 49.5%
Over 24.5 — — 1.90 52.6%
Over 25.5 — — 1.80 55.6%
Over 26.5 — — 1.43 69.9%
Over 27.5 — — 8.50 11.8%
Over 28.5 — — 10.50 9.5%
Over 29.5 — — 3.35 29.9%
Under 19.5 — — 1.95 51.3%
Under 20.5 — — 1.65 60.6%
Under 21.5 — — 1.95 51.3%
Under 22.5 1.76 56.8% 1.76 56.8% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
2.15 46.5% 2.07 48.3% 8.50 11.8% 2.08 48.1%
1.64 61.0% 1.67 59.9% 1.04 96.2% 1.67 59.9%
Match center
Houkes M
L W W L W
24.07 06:00 UTC+0 ITF Men - Singles: M25 Metzingen (Germany), clay
Houkes M 1:2 Zakhray P. 🇩🇪
23.07 09:00 UTC+0 ITF Men - Singles: M25 Metzingen (Germany), clay
Houkes M 2:0 Lopes Morilo I. 🇪🇸
22.07 11:00 UTC+0 ITF Men - Singles: M25 Metzingen (Germany), clay
Houkes M 2:0 Popovich S. 🇷🇸
17.07 14:00 UTC+0 Challenger Men - Singles: Bunschoten (Netherlands), clay
Houkes M 1:2 Gentzsch T. 🇩🇪Gentzsch T. 🇩🇪
15.07 14:00 UTC+0 Challenger Men - Singles: Bunschoten (Netherlands), clay
Houkes M 2:0 Schoenhaus M. 🇩🇪Schoenhaus M. 🇩🇪
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.6 Sets won
0.8 Sets lost
60% Win percentage
Carballes Baena R
L W W W W
21.07 16:00 UTC+0 Challenger Men - Singles: Zug (Switzerland), clay
Carballes Baena R 0:2 Khusler M. 🇨🇭
14.06 12:40 UTC+0 Challenger Men - Singles: Cattolica (Italy), clay
Carballes Baena R 2:0 De Yong Y. 🇳🇱De Yong Y. 🇳🇱
13.06 12:40 UTC+0 Challenger Men - Singles: Cattolica (Italy), clay
Carballes Baena R 2:1 Forti F. 🇮🇹Forti F. 🇮🇹
12.06 12:00 UTC+0 Challenger Men - Singles: Cattolica (Italy), clay
Carballes Baena R 2:1 Brankachchio R. 🇮🇹Brankachchio R. 🇮🇹
10.06 06:00 UTC+0 Challenger Men - Singles: Cattolica (Italy), clay
Carballes Baena R 2:0 Ferrari Dzha. 🇮🇹
4 Wins
1 Losses
1.6 Sets won
0.8 Sets lost
80% Win percentage