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ATP Challenger. Hagen
ATP Challenger. Hagen
06.08.2026 09:00 UTC Match prediction

Dodig M - Giustino L

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis ATP Challenger. Hagen
ATP Challenger. Hagen clay 06.08.2026 09:00 UTC Finished
06.08.2026 09:00 UTC Finished
Dodig M
Dodig M
Rank #198 Elo 283
48Struggling Form
W L L W L L W W
G
Giustino L
Rank #257 Elo 214
59Average Form
W L L W W W W W
1:2 6:4 5:7 6:7
1 2 3 GP
Dodig M 6 5 6 1
Giustino L 4 7 7 2
1 2 3
Coverage: clay
Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Dodig M Giustino L
Win % 62.1% 52.1%
Hard % 58.9% 45.5%
Clay % 63.2% 55.6%
Grass % 50% 0%
Deciding set % 59.3% 52.4%
Tie-breaks % 57.4% 52.3%
Titles (total) 6 6
Last 10 WWWLLWWWWL WLLWLLWWWW

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

- Country -
#198 Rating #257
34 Age 21
1.80m Height (cm) 1.88m
80kg Weight (kg) 77kg
Right Hand Right
- Seed -
clay Coverage clay
0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

Dodig M Giustino L
Aces per match 4.11 5.42
Double faults per match 3.34 1.48
Breaks per match 1.7 1.61

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Lorenzo Giustino
Rank:198 Elo: 283
W L L W L L W W
Matej Dodig
Rank:257 Elo: 214
W L L W W W W W
Elo favourite:Giustino L (edge +69 Elo)

Hard

Lorenzo GiustinoMatej Dodig
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 53.9% 7 / 13 Matches 50.0% 5 / 10 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 66.7% 14 / 21 Matches 59.3% 16 / 27 Matches

Clay

Lorenzo GiustinoMatej Dodig
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 48.0% 12 / 25 Matches 66.7% 14 / 21 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 64.4% 38 / 59 Matches 58.1% 18 / 31 Matches

Grass

Lorenzo GiustinoMatej Dodig
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 0.0% 0 / 1 Matches 50.0% 1 / 2 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 0.0% 0 / 1 Matches 50.0% 1 / 2 Matches

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Lorenzo Giustino Matej Dodig
H2H wins 1 (100.0%) 0 (0.0%)
Sets 2 (66.7%) 1 (33.3%)
Wins this year 47.5% 19 / 40 Matches 58.8% 20 / 34 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 62.7% 52 / 83 Matches 58.1% 36 / 62 Matches
Current rank 198 257

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Lorenzo Giustino Matej Dodig
Prize money (career) $934,068 USD $73,105 USD
Rating 198 257
Age 34 21
Height 1.80m 1.88m
Weight 80kg 77kg
Playing hand Right-handed Right-handed

Win percentage (match / set)

Lorenzo Giustino Matej Dodig
Match Wins 48 % 59 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 50 % 61 %
Match Wins (5 Sets) 0 % 50 %
Wins in Straight Sets 28 % 29 %
Wins From Behind 16 % 30 %
Won At Least 1 Set 70 % 71 %
Set 1 Win 55 % 47 %
Set 2 Win 43 % 55 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Match stats (live, tennisstats)

Lorenzo Giustino Matej Dodig
Aces 9 4
Double Faults 3 4
1st serve percentage 59% 65%
1st serve points won 79% (31/39) 74% (37/50)
2nd serve points won 48% (13/27) 52% (14/27)
Break Points Saved 0/3 5/8
1st return points won 30% (15/50) 21% (8/39)
2nd return points won 48% (13/27) 52% (14/27)
Break Points Converted 3/8 3/3
Service Points Won 67% (44/66) 66% (51/77)
Return Points Won 34% (26/77) 33% (22/66)
Total Points Won 49% (70/143) 51% (73/143)
Last 10 balls 5 5
Match points saved 0 0
Service games won 77% (10/13) 79% (11/14)
Return games won 21% (3/14) 23% (3/13)
Total games won 48% (13/27) 52% (14/27)

Source:tennisstats.com

Head-to-Head Record

Date Tournament Results
Aug 14 2024 Todi Chall. Men (Clay) Lorenzo Giustino 2 – 1 Matej Dodig

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Lorenzo Giustino Matej Dodig Match total
Average Games in a Set 9.93 9.94 9.94
Over 6.5 100 % 97 % 99 %
Over 7.5 97 % 90 % 94 %
Over 8.5 74 % 81 % 78 %
Over 9.5 55 % 58 % 57 %
Over 10.5 26 % 29 % 28 %
Over 11.5 26 % 29 % 28 %

Aces

Lorenzo Giustino Matej Dodig Match total
Aces Per Match 4.11 5.42 9.53
Most Aces in a match 66 % 68 % N/A
1+ 95 % 94 % 97 %
2+ 92 % 81 % 95 %
3+ 63 % 71 % 90 %
4+ 50 % 65 % 83 %
5+ 32 % 58 % 76 %

Breaks

Lorenzo Giustino Matej Dodig Match total
Breaks Per Match 1.7 1.61 3.31
Over 0.5 50 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 47 % 61 % 75 %
Over 2.5 45 % 3 % 46 %
Over 3.5 3 % 0 % 45 %
Over 4.5 0 % 0 % 43 %
Over 5.5 0 % 0 % 23 %

Tie-breaks

Lorenzo Giustino Matej Dodig Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.45 0.29 0.37
Over 0.5 39 % 29 % 34 %
Over 1.5 5 % 0 % 3 %
Under 0.5 61 % 71 % 34 %
Under 1.5 95 % 100 % 3 %

Double faults

Lorenzo Giustino Matej Dodig Match total
Double Faults Per Match 3.34 1.48 4.82
Over 0.5 (1+) 92 % 68 % 97 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 76 % 42 % 82 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 61 % 23 % 71 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 42 % 10 % 57 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 21 % 6 % 44 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 13 % 0 % 37 %

Net points

Lorenzo Giustino Matej Dodig Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 7.33 6.81 14.14
Over 4.5 (5+) 72 % 78 % 75 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 61 % 56 % 59 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 44 % 39 % 42 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 44 % 28 % 36 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 39 % 22 % 31 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 22 % 11 % 17 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 2.25 55.0% BetBoom
P2 2.75 45.0% BetBoom

Dodig M take on Giustino L on August 6, 2026 in the ATP Challenger. Hagen.

Recent form (W-D-L): Dodig M 3-0-2, Giustino L 2-0-3. These sides have met 1 time recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 61% to win. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Dodig M — 61%

Pure model vs market (1 · Dodig M): model 59% · market 62% Δ −3 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Dodig M ✓ Pick61.4%
market62%
2 · Giustino L38.6%
market38%

Model estimate: win Dodig M 61.4%, win Giustino L 38.6%. Model favourite — Dodig M.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Dodig M (odds1.61) Score 2:1 confidence 58% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Dodig M
  • • 🇭🇷 — Dzhustino L
  • • 🇮🇹 (tennis)
  • • Dodig M
  • • 🇭🇷: forma VVPPV (3-2)
  • • Dzhustino L
  • • 🇮🇹: forma VPPPP (1-4)
  • • Model backs Dodig M
  • • 🇭🇷: probability 58% vs 62% on the line (odds 1.61)
  • • no edge over the line (-4 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Dodig M - Giustino L August 6, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Giustino L.

Line favourite Fonbet: Giustino L. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 2.25 / 2 1.57
  • Glicko: Dodig M 61.4% / Giustino L 38.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 7.7% 6 books · best price +49.5%
1 ✓ Pick 61.7%
2 38.4%

Odds source: consensus of 6 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 1.60 ↑ 2.25
Winner 2 2.20 ↓ 1.57

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Dodig M
63%
2.25
Giustino L
37%
2.75
Total
Over 22.5
48%
1.98
Under 22.5
52%
2.02

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

0Wins1
1.0Average score2.0

Head-to-head matches: 1 · average total 3.0 (goals)

Team form

Dodig M
7-3LWWWWLLWWW
scored 1.5conceded 0.8
Giustino L
6-4WWWLLWLLWW
scored 1.5conceded 1.0

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:2/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated06.08.2026 00:06 UTC
1 52% ✓ favourite
2 48%
Score2:1 Total games: Over 22.5 Bet:Total games Over 22.5
Per AI data H2H: 0:1
Claude updated06.08.2026 00:10 UTC
1 62% ✓ favourite
2 38%
Score2:1 Total games: Over 21.5 Bet:1 — win Mateya Dodiga (ot 1.65)

AI consensus:1

AI 1 2 Score Total games Bet
Google AI 52% 48% 2:1 Over 22.5 Total games Over 22.5
Claude 62% 38% 2:1 Over 21.5
Match center
Start 06.08.2026 09:00 UTC
Market 1 41.1% @ 2.25 / 2 58.9% @ 1.57
Coverage clay
Form 6 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Dodig M 57%
📐 Math model Dodig M 61%
💹 Market Dodig M 62%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Dodig M - Giustino L

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 1:2
Events 0
Statistics 20
Set Dodig M Giustino L Result
Set 1 6 4 6:4
Set 2 5 7 5:7
Set 3 6 7 6:7
Metric Dodig M Giustino L SStats
Breyk-poynty realizovany 3/3 3/8 final
Points na prieme 33% (22/66) 34% (26/77) final
Eysy 4 9 final
Breyk-poynty otygrany 5/8 0/3 final
Dvoynye oshibki 4 3 final
Pervaya podacha, % 65% 59% final
Points na pervoy podache 74% (37/50) 79% (31/39) final
Points na vtoroy podache 52% (14/27) 48% (13/27) final
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H home - 61.4% fact: away missed / Brier 0.754 / LogLoss 0.951
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H home - 51.4% fact: away missed / Brier 0.528 / LogLoss 0.721
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Dodig M 61.7% 58.2% market and model agree
Giustino L 38.4% 41.8% market and model agree
1X2: 6 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko61.4% · +Elo prior (weight0.26).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 61.4% / 38.6% probabilities
Rating 1,820 / 1,644 Dodig M / Giustino L
RD 157 / 120 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,505-2,134 / 1,405-1,884 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.57 Fonbet · no value · model 38.6%
1 2.25 Fonbet · value +38.1% · model 61.4%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.57 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 2.20 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 2.25 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 1.60 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 10.5 3.20 market consensus · line only
Over 18.5 1.23 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
— — 2.25 44.4%
— — 10.00 10.0%
1.83 54.6% 1.90 52.6% 5.10 19.6%
— — 3.95 25.3%
— — 4.30 23.3%
— — 2.20 45.5%
— — 7.80 12.8%
1.89 52.9% 1.80 55.6% 1.92 52.1%
— — 1.57 63.7%
— — 1.02 98.0%
— — 1.12 89.3%
— — 1.20 83.3%
— — 1.16 86.2%
— — 1.05 95.2%

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.01 99.0%
6.20 16.1%
1.07 93.5%
12.00 8.3%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 18.5 — — 1.23 81.3%
Over 19.5 — — 1.15 87.0%
Over 20.5 — — 3.25 30.8%
Over 21.5 1.76 56.8% — 1.82 55.0%
Over 22.5 1.97 50.8% 1.96 51.0% 1.70 58.8%
Over 23.5 — — 1.88 53.2%
Over 24.5 — — 2.20 45.5%
Over 25.5 — — 2.20 45.5%
Over 26.5 — — 1.78 56.2%
Over 27.5 — — 1.80 55.6%
Over 28.5 — — 2.07 48.3%
Over 29.5 — — 1.55 64.5%
Under 21.5 1.97 50.8% — —
Under 22.5 1.76 56.8% 1.75 57.1% —

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 2.5 1.07 93.5%
Under 2.5 6.20 16.1%
Match center
Dodig M
W W W L L
2026-08-04 2026 Hagen, Germany
Dodig M Travaglia S 0:2 Dodig M
2026-08-03 2026 Hagen, Germany, Qualifying
Dodig M Dodig M 2:0 Krutykh O
2026-08-02 2026 Hagen, Germany, Qualifying
Dodig M Dodig M 2:0 Opitz J
2026-07-14 2026 Umag, Croatia
Dodig M Dodig M 0:2 Carreno Busta P
2026-07-12 2026 Trieste, Italy
Dodig M Dodig M 1:2 Dellien H
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.4 Sets won
0.8 Sets lost
60% Win percentage
Giustino L
W L L W L
2026-08-04 2026 Hagen, Germany
Giustino L 2:1 Sachko V Giustino L
2026-07-28 2026 Bonn, Germany
Wallin O 2:1 Giustino L Giustino L
2026-07-19 2026 Kitzbuhel, Austria, Qualifying
Cina F 2:0 Giustino L Giustino L
2026-07-18 2026 Kitzbuhel, Austria, Qualifying
Hipfl N 0:2 Giustino L Giustino L
2026-07-14 2026 Cordenons, Italy
Roncadelli F 2:1 Giustino L Giustino L
2 Wins
3 Losses
1.2 Sets won
1.4 Sets lost
40% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyDodig M - Giustino L

Dodig M
1 matches total
Giustino L
Dodig M: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Giustino L: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Giustino, Lorenzo 1:2 (2024-08-14) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (1:2, 2024-08-14) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

2024-08-14 ATP Challenger Hagen, Germany Men Singles 2026
Dodig, Matej 1:2 Giustino, Lorenzo