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ATP Challenger. Hagen
ATP Challenger. Hagen
04.08.2026 10:05 UTC Match prediction

Molleker R - Mrva M

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis ATP Challenger. Hagen
ATP Challenger. Hagen clay 04.08.2026 10:05 UTC Finished
04.08.2026 10:05 UTC Finished
M
Molleker R
W W L L L
M
Mrva M
W W L L W
0:2 3:6 3:6
1 2 GP
Molleker R 3 3 0
Mrva M 6 6 2
1 2
Odds
P1 13.00 10.3% BetBoom
P2 1.50 89.7% BetBoom
Coverage: clay
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

- Country -
- Rating -
- Age -
- Height (cm) -
- Weight (kg) -
- Hand -
- Seed -
clay Coverage clay
0 H2H 0

Molleker R meet Mrva M on August 4, 2026 in the ATP Challenger. Hagen.

Recent form (W-D-L): Molleker R 2-0-3, Mrva M 3-0-2. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 40% to win. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Mrva M — 60%

Pure model vs market (2 · Mrva M): model 42% · market 62% Δ −20 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Molleker R39.9%
market38%
2 · Mrva M ✓ Pick60.1%
market62%

Model estimate: win Molleker R 39.9%, win Mrva M 60.1%. Model favourite — Mrva M.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Mrva M (odds1.44) Score 1:2 confidence 54% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Melleker R
  • • 🇩🇪 — Mrva M
  • • 🇨🇿 (tennis)
  • • Melleker R
  • • 🇩🇪: forma VPVVP (3-2)
  • • Mrva M
  • • 🇨🇿: forma VPPVP (2-3)
  • • Model backs Mrva M
  • • 🇨🇿: probability 54% vs 69% on the line (odds 1.44)
  • • no edge over the line (-16 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Molleker R - Mrva M August 4, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Mrva M.

Line favourite Fonbet: Mrva M. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 13.00 / 2 1.01
  • Glicko: Molleker R 39.9% / Mrva M 60.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 7.8% 4 books
1 37.9%
2 ✓ Pick 62.1%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 2.60 ↑ 13.00
Winner 2 1.43 ↓ 1.01

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Molleker R
5-5LWLLWWWWLL
scored 1.5conceded 1.1
Mrva M
5-5LLWLWWLWWL
scored 1.2conceded 1.2

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:2/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated04.08.2026 08:13 UTC
1 40%
2 60% ✓ favourite
Score0:2 Total games: Under 22.5 Bet:2
Per AI data H2H: 0:1
Claude updated04.08.2026 08:17 UTC
1 42%
2 58% ✓ favourite
Score0:2 Total games: Over 22.5 Bet:Over 22.5 games (ot 1.55); podstrakhovka — 1 Melleker ot 2.50

AI consensus:2

AI 1 2 Score Total games Bet
Google AI 40% 60% 0:2 Under 22.5
Claude 42% 58% 0:2 Over 22.5 Over 22.5 games (ot 1.55); podstrakhovka — 1 Melleker ot 2.50
Match center
Start 04.08.2026 10:05 UTC
Market 1 7.2% @ 13.00 / 2 92.8% @ 1.01
Coverage clay
Form 6 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Mrva M 59%
📐 Math model Mrva M 60%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Molleker R - Mrva M

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 0:2
Events 0
Statistics 0
Set Molleker R Mrva M Result
Set 1 3 6 3:6
Set 2 3 6 3:6
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage away - 60.1% fact: away hit / ROI 50.0% / Brier 0.319 / LogLoss 0.510
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage away - 51.2% fact: away hit / ROI 50.0% / Brier 0.476 / LogLoss 0.669
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Molleker R 38.0% 39.9%
Mrva M 62.0% 60.1% market and model agree
1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 39.9% / 60.1% probabilities
Rating 1,597 / 1,455 Molleker R / Mrva M
RD 187 / 136 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,222-1,971 / 1,184-1,726 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 60.1%
1 2.43 market consensus · no value · model 39.9%
Handicap
2 +0.5 1.55 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 2.30 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 17.5 1.33 Fonbet · line only
Over 18.5 1.15 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
— — 2.30 43.5%
— — 2.10 47.6%
1.97 50.8% 1.93 51.8% 2.15 46.5%
1.79 55.9% 1.75 57.1% —
— — 1.55 64.5%
— — 1.65 60.6%
— — 1.63 61.4%
— — 1.35 74.1%
— — 1.05 95.2%
— — 4.40 22.7%
— — 4.80 20.8%
1.76 56.8% 1.78 56.2% —
1.94 51.6% 1.96 51.0% —

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 17.5 — — 1.33 75.2%
Over 18.5 — — 1.15 87.0%
Over 19.5 — — 5.30 18.9%
Over 20.5 — — 1.82 55.0%
Over 21.5 1.76 56.8% 1.75 57.1% 2.20 45.5%
Over 22.5 — 1.97 50.8% 1.92 52.1%
Over 23.5 — — 2.15 46.5%
Over 24.5 — — 2.30 43.5%
Under 17.5 — — 3.05 32.8%
Under 18.5 — — 4.50 22.2%
Under 19.5 — — 1.10 90.9%
Under 20.5 — — 1.88 53.2%
Under 21.5 1.97 50.8% 1.96 51.0% —
Under 22.5 — 1.74 57.5% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
2.45 40.8% 2.40 41.7% 13.00 7.7% 2.44 41.0%
1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.01 99.0% 1.49 67.1%
Match center
Molleker R
W W L L L
2026-08-03 2026 Hagen, Germany, Qualifying
Molleker R Molleker R 2:0 Handel T
2026-08-02 2026 Hagen, Germany, Qualifying
Molleker R Blanch Dali 0:2 Molleker R
2026-07-26 2026 Liberec, Czech Republic, Qualifying
Molleker R Molleker R 1:2 Vrba J
2026-07-12 2026 Bunschoten, Netherlands, Qualifying
Molleker R Molleker R 1:2 Donders D
2026-07-07 2026 Braunschweig, Germany
Molleker R Molleker R 1:2 Diaz Acosta F
2 Wins
3 Losses
1.4 Sets won
1.2 Sets lost
40% Win percentage
Mrva M
W W L L W
2026-08-03 2026 Hagen, Germany, Qualifying
Mrva M 2:0 Kicker N Mrva M
2026-08-02 2026 Hagen, Germany, Qualifying
Mrva M 2:0 Mertgens N Mrva M
2026-07-28 2026 Liberec, Czech Republic
Schwaerzler J 2:0 Mrva M Mrva M
2026-07-16 2026 Cordenons, Italy
Mrva M 1:2 Roncadelli F Mrva M
2026-07-14 2026 Cordenons, Italy
Mrva M 2:1 Caniato C A Mrva M
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.4 Sets won
1.0 Sets lost
60% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMolleker R - Mrva M

Molleker R
0 matches total
Mrva M
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history