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Challenger Men - Singles: Istanbul 2 (Turkey), hard
Challenger Men - Singles: Istanbul 2 (Turkey), hard
04.08.2026 15:10 UTC Match prediction

Matsuda K - Yilmaz K

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis Challenger Men - Singles: Istanbul 2 (Turkey), hard
Challenger Men - Singles: Istanbul 2 (Turkey), hard hard 04.08.2026 15:10 UTC Finished
04.08.2026 15:10 UTC Finished
M
Matsuda K
W W L W W
Yilmaz K
Yilmaz K
W W L L L
2:1 3:6 6:3 7:6
1 2 3 GP
Matsuda K 3 6 7 2
Yilmaz K 6 3 6 1
1 2 3
Odds
P1 1.36 69.5% BetBoom
P2 3.10 30.5% BetBoom
Coverage: hard
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

- Country -
- Rating -
- Age -
- Height (cm) -
- Weight (kg) -
- Hand -
- Seed -
hard Coverage hard
0 H2H 0

Matsuda K take on Yilmaz K on August 4, 2026 in the Challenger Men - Singles: Istanbul 2 (Turkey), hard.

Recent form (W-D-L): Matsuda K 4-0-1, Yilmaz K 2-1-2. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 67% to win. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Matsuda K — 67%

Pure model vs market (1 · Matsuda K): model 48% · market 69% Δ −21 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Matsuda K ✓ Pick67.0%
market69%
2 · Yilmaz K33.0%
market31%

Model estimate: win Matsuda K 67.0%, win Yilmaz K 33.0%. Model favourite — Matsuda K.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Matsuda K (odds1.35) Score 2:1 confidence 66% ✓ outcome correct · exact score
  • • Matsuda K
  • • 🇯🇵 — Yilmaz K
  • • 🇹🇷 (tennis)
  • • Matsuda K
  • • 🇯🇵: forma VVP (2-1)
  • • Yilmaz K
  • • 🇹🇷: forma VVPPV (3-2)
  • • liniya na pik P1 1.38→1.35 (ukorotilas — dengi na pik)
  • • Model backs Matsuda K
  • • 🇯🇵: probability 66% vs 74% on the line (odds 1.35)
  • • no edge over the line (-8 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Matsuda K - Yilmaz K August 4, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Matsuda K.

Line favourite Fonbet: Matsuda K. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.35 / 2 2.95
  • Glicko: Matsuda K 67.0% / Yilmaz K 33.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.0% 3 books
1 ✓ Pick 68.6%
2 31.4%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 1.38 ↓ 1.32
Winner 2 2.80 ↑ 3.10

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Match center
Start 04.08.2026 15:10 UTC
Market 1 68.6% @ 1.35 / 2 31.4% @ 2.95
Coverage hard
Form 6 matches
Match center

Matsuda K - Yilmaz K

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 2:1
Events 0
Statistics 0
Set Matsuda K Yilmaz K Result
Set 1 3 6 3:6
Set 2 6 3 6:3
Set 3 7 6 7:6
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage home - 67.0% fact: home hit / ROI 36.0% / Brier 0.218 / LogLoss 0.400
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage home - 52.0% fact: home hit / ROI 36.0% / Brier 0.460 / LogLoss 0.653
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Matsuda K 69.1% 67.0% market and model agree
Yilmaz K 30.9% 33.0%
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 67.0% / 33.0% probabilities
Rating 1,667 / 1,783 Matsuda K / Yilmaz K
RD 212 / 178 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,242-2,091 / 1,427-2,139 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.95 Fonbet · no value · model 33.0%
1 1.35 Fonbet · no value · model 67.0%
Total
Over 19.5 1.50 Fonbet · line only
Over 20.5 1.65 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Fonbet Leon
— 1.43 69.9% —
— 1.53 65.4% —
1.73 57.8% 1.73 57.8% 1.75 57.1%
— 2.10 47.6% —
— 2.65 37.7% —
2.00 50.0% — 2.01 49.8%
— 2.65 37.7% —
— 2.35 42.6% —
— 2.00 50.0% —
— 1.65 60.6% —
— 1.40 71.4% —

Total

Outcome Baltbet Fonbet Leon
Over 19.5 — 1.50 66.7% —
Over 20.5 — 1.65 60.6% —
Over 21.5 1.86 53.8% 1.83 54.6% 1.88 53.2%
Over 22.5 — 2.10 47.6% —
Over 23.5 — 2.35 42.6% —
Over 24.5 — 2.45 40.8% —
Under 19.5 — 2.40 41.7% —
Under 20.5 — 2.10 47.6% —
Under 21.5 1.86 53.8% 1.87 53.5% 1.86 53.8%
Under 22.5 — 1.65 60.6% —
Under 23.5 — 1.55 64.5% —
Under 24.5 — 1.50 66.7% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Fonbet Leon
1.36 73.5% 1.35 74.1% 1.34 74.6%
2.95 33.9% 2.95 33.9% 3.00 33.3%
Match center
Matsuda K
W W L W W
2026-08-03 2026 Istanbul 2, Turkiye, Qualifying
Matsuda K Matsuda K 2:0 Ostapenkov D
2026-08-02 2026 Istanbul 2, Turkiye, Qualifying
Matsuda K Matsuda K 2:0 Ilkel C
2026-07-31 2026 Samsun, Turkiye
Matsuda K Matsuda K 1:2 Debru G
2026-07-29 2026 Samsun, Turkiye
Matsuda K Sinclair C 0:2 Matsuda K
2026-07-27 2026 Samsun, Turkiye
Matsuda K Singh K 0:2 Matsuda K
4 Wins
1 Losses
1.8 Sets won
0.4 Sets lost
80% Win percentage
Yilmaz K
W W L D L
2026-08-03 2026 Istanbul 2, Turkiye, Qualifying
Yilmaz K 2:1 Deckers A Yilmaz K
2026-08-02 2026 Istanbul 2, Turkiye, Qualifying
Zhukov M 1:2 Yilmaz K Yilmaz K
2026-07-26 2026 Samsun, Turkiye, Qualifying
Bittoun Kouzmine C 2:1 Yilmaz K Yilmaz K
2026-05-19 2026 Istanbul, Turkiye
Yilmaz K 1:1 Matusevich A Yilmaz K
2025-07-06 2025 Wimbledon, Boys
McDonald N 2:1 Yilmaz K Yilmaz K
2 Wins
2 Losses
1.4 Sets won
1.4 Sets lost
40% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMatsuda K - Yilmaz K

Matsuda K
0 matches total
Yilmaz K
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history