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Challenger Men - Singles: Istanbul 2 (Turkey), hard
Challenger Men - Singles: Istanbul 2 (Turkey), hard
05.08.2026 10:00 UTC Match prediction

Ostapenkov D - Bax F

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis Challenger Men - Singles: Istanbul 2 (Turkey), hard
Challenger Men - Singles: Istanbul 2 (Turkey), hard hard 05.08.2026 10:00 UTC Finished
05.08.2026 10:00 UTC Finished
Ostapenkov D
Ostapenkov D
W L W L L
B
Bax F
W L W L W
1:2 7:6 6:7 1:6
1 2 3 GP
Ostapenkov D 7 6 1 1
Bax F 6 7 6 2
1 2 3
Odds
P1 2.42 38.9% BetBoom
P2 1.54 61.1% BetBoom
Coverage: hard
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

- Country -
- Rating -
- Age -
- Height (cm) -
- Weight (kg) -
- Hand -
- Seed -
hard Coverage hard
0 H2H 0

Ostapenkov D take on Bax F on August 5, 2026 in the Challenger Men - Singles: Istanbul 2 (Turkey), hard.

Recent form (W-D-L): Ostapenkov D 2-0-3, Bax F 3-0-2. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 41% to win. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Bax F — 59%

Pure model vs market (2 · Bax F): model 48% · market 61% Δ −13 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Ostapenkov D40.6%
market39%
2 · Bax F ✓ Pick59.4%
market61%

Model estimate: win Ostapenkov D 40.6%, win Bax F 59.4%. Model favourite — Bax F.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Bax F (odds1.56) Score 1:2 confidence 58% ✓ outcome correct · exact score
  • • Ostapenkov D
  • • (World) — Baks F
  • • 🇫🇷 (tennis)
  • • Ostapenkov D
  • • (World): forma VPVPV (3-2)
  • • Baks F
  • • 🇫🇷: forma VPVPV (3-2)
  • • Model backs Baks F
  • • 🇫🇷: probability 58% vs 64% on the line (odds 1.56)
  • • no edge over the line (-6 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Ostapenkov D - Bax F August 5, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bax F.

Line favourite Fonbet: Bax F. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 2.35 / 2 1.52
  • Glicko: Ostapenkov D 40.6% / Bax F 59.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.0% 4 books
1 39.3%
2 ✓ Pick 60.8%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 2.30 ↑ 2.35
Winner 2 1.55 ↓ 1.52

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Ostapenkov D

no data

Bax F
6-4LWWLWWWWLL
scored 1.4conceded 0.9

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Match center
Start 05.08.2026 10:00 UTC
Market 1 39.3% @ 2.35 / 2 60.7% @ 1.52
Coverage hard
Form 6 matches
Match center

Ostapenkov D - Bax F

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 1:2
Events 0
Statistics 20
Set Ostapenkov D Bax F Result
Set 1 7 6 7:6
Set 2 6 7 6:7
Set 3 1 6 1:6
Metric Ostapenkov D Bax F SStats
Breyk-poynty realizovany 1/2 1/5 final
Points na prieme 30% (21/69) 34% (25/74) final
Eysy 5 4 final
Breyk-poynty otygrany 4/5 1/2 final
Dvoynye oshibki 1 2 final
Pervaya podacha, % 53% 54% final
Points na pervoy podache 85% (33/39) 79% (30/38) final
Points na vtoroy podache 46% (16/35) 55% (18/33) final
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage away - 59.4% fact: away hit / ROI 54.0% / Brier 0.329 / LogLoss 0.520
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage away - 51.1% fact: away hit / ROI 54.0% / Brier 0.478 / LogLoss 0.671
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Ostapenkov D 39.3% 40.6%
Bax F 60.8% 59.4% market and model agree
1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 40.6% / 59.4% probabilities
Rating 1,649 / 1,652 Ostapenkov D / Bax F
RD 185 / 180 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,279-2,018 / 1,293-2,012 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.52 Fonbet · no value · model 59.4%
1 2.35 Fonbet · no value · model 40.6%
Handicap
2 +0.5 1.55 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 2.30 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 20.5 1.53 Fonbet · line only
Over 21.5 1.70 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
— — 2.30 43.5% —
— — 2.10 47.6% —
1.91 52.4% 1.92 52.1% 1.92 52.1% 1.85 54.1%
— — 1.67 59.9% —
— — 1.55 64.5% —
— — 1.65 60.6% —
— — 1.78 56.2% —
— — 2.07 48.3% —
1.81 55.3% 1.78 56.2% — 1.89 52.9%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
Over 20.5 — — 1.53 65.4% —
Over 21.5 — — 1.70 58.8% —
Over 22.5 1.91 52.4% 1.93 51.8% 1.93 51.8% 1.97 50.8%
Over 23.5 — — 2.20 45.5% —
Over 24.5 — — 2.25 44.4% —
Under 20.5 — — 2.35 42.6% —
Under 21.5 — — 2.02 49.5% —
Under 22.5 1.81 55.3% 1.77 56.5% 1.77 56.5% 1.78 56.2%
Under 23.5 — — 1.60 62.5% —
Under 24.5 — — 1.57 63.7% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
2.37 42.2% 2.42 41.3% 2.35 42.6% 2.32 43.1%
1.53 65.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.52 65.8% 1.54 64.9%
Match center
Ostapenkov D
W L W L L
2026-08-04 2026 Istanbul 2, Turkiye
Ostapenkov D Bittoun Kouzmine C 1:2 Ostapenkov D
2026-08-03 2026 Istanbul 2, Turkiye, Qualifying
Ostapenkov D Matsuda K 2:0 Ostapenkov D
2026-08-02 2026 Istanbul 2, Turkiye, Qualifying
Ostapenkov D Dzhavakian Y 0:2 Ostapenkov D
2026-04-26 2026 Shymkent 2, Kazakhstan, Qualifying
Ostapenkov D Krutykh O 2:0 Ostapenkov D
2026-04-23 2026 Shymkent, Kazakhstan
Ostapenkov D Skatov T 2:1 Ostapenkov D
2 Wins
3 Losses
1.0 Sets won
1.4 Sets lost
40% Win percentage
Bax F
W L W L W
2026-08-04 2026 Istanbul 2, Turkiye
Weber A 0:2 Bax F Bax F
2026-07-29 2026 Samsun, Turkiye
Debru G 2:1 Bax F Bax F
2026-07-28 2026 Samsun, Turkiye
Kumasaka T 0:2 Bax F Bax F
2026-07-22 2026 Segovia, Spain
Bax F 0:2 Inchauspe P Bax F
2026-07-21 2026 Segovia, Spain
Added D 0:2 Bax F Bax F
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.4 Sets won
0.8 Sets lost
60% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyOstapenkov D - Bax F

Ostapenkov D
0 matches total
Bax F
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history