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ATP Challenger. Samsun
ATP Challenger. Samsun
28.07.2026 07:00 UTC Match prediction

Miyoshi K - Nakagawa S

Tennis ATP Challenger. Samsun
ATP Challenger. Samsun hard 28.07.2026 07:00 UTC Finished
28.07.2026 07:00 UTC Finished
M
Miyoshi K
N
Nakagawa S
2:0
Odds
P1 1.13 82.2% BetBoom
P2 5.20 17.9% BetBoom
Coverage: hard
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

- Country -
- Rating -
- Age -
- Height (cm) -
- Weight (kg) -
- Hand -
- Seed -
hard Coverage hard
0 H2H 0
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Miyoshi K — 79%

Pure model vs market (1 · Miyoshi K): model 57% · market 92% Δ −35 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Miyoshi K ✓ Pick79.4%
market92%
2 · Nakagawa S20.6%
market8%

Model estimate: win Miyoshi K 79.4%, win Nakagawa S 20.6%. Model favourite — Miyoshi K.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Miyoshi K (odds1.21) Score 2:1 confidence 57% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Miyoshi K
  • • 🇯🇵 — Nakagawa S
  • • 🇯🇵 (tennis)
  • • Miyoshi K
  • • 🇯🇵: forma VVPVV (4-1)
  • • Nakagawa S
  • • 🇯🇵: forma VVP (2-1)
  • • Model backs Miyoshi K
  • • 🇯🇵: probability 57% vs 83% on the line (odds 1.21)
  • • no edge over the line (-26 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Miyoshi K - Nakagawa S July 28, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Miyoshi K.

Line favourite Fonbet: Miyoshi K. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.02 / 2 11.00
  • Glicko: Miyoshi K 79.4% / Nakagawa S 20.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 7.1%
1 ✓ Pick 91.5%
2 8.5%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 1.12 → 1.12
Winner 2 5.00 → 5.00

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Match center
Start 28.07.2026 07:00 UTC
Coverage hard
Form 6 matches
Match center

Miyoshi K - Nakagawa S

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/3 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 2:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage home - 79.4% fact: home hit / ROI 13.0% / Brier 0.085 / LogLoss 0.230
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage home - 53.5% fact: home hit / ROI 13.0% / Brier 0.432 / LogLoss 0.625
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Miyoshi K 81.9% 79.4% market and model agree
Nakagawa S 18.1% 20.6%
1X2: 2 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 79.4% / 20.6% probabilities
Rating 1,869 / 1,731 Miyoshi K / Nakagawa S
RD 176 / 238 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,517-2,222 / 1,256-2,207 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.20 market consensus · no value · model 20.6%
1 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 79.4%
Total
Over 16.5 1.63 Fonbet · line only
Over 17.5 7.90 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet Leon
1.32 75.8% —
1.53 65.4% —
1.20 83.3% 1.95 51.3%
1.04 96.2% —
2.13 47.0% —
— 1.80 55.6%
3.10 32.3% —
2.35 42.6% —
4.05 24.7% —
8.00 12.5% —
1.63 61.4% —

Total

Outcome Fonbet Leon
Over 16.5 1.63 61.4% —
Over 17.5 7.90 12.7% —
Over 18.5 2.60 38.5% —
Over 19.5 2.10 47.6% 1.83 54.6%
Over 20.5 2.10 47.6% —
Over 21.5 2.30 43.5% —
Over 22.5 2.65 37.7% —
Under 16.5 2.15 46.5% —
Under 17.5 1.04 96.2% —
Under 18.5 1.45 69.0% —
Under 19.5 1.65 60.6% 1.91 52.4%
Under 20.5 1.65 60.6% —
Under 21.5 1.55 64.5% —
Under 22.5 1.40 71.4% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet Leon
1.02 98.0% 1.13 88.5%
11.00 9.1% 5.20 19.2%
Match center
Miyoshi K
W W L W W
27.07 06:30 UTC+0 Challenger Men - Singles: Samsun (Turkey) - Qualifying, hard
Miyoshi K 2:0 Anavatan M. 🇹🇷Anavatan M. 🇹🇷
26.07 05:30 UTC+0 Challenger Men - Singles: Samsun (Turkey) - Qualifying, hard
Miyoshi K 2:0 Chekhov A. (World)
19.07 18:00 UTC+0 Challenger Men - Singles: Winnipeg (Canada) - Qualifying, hard
Miyoshi K 1:2 Tokuda R. 🇯🇵Tokuda R. 🇯🇵
12.07 19:00 UTC+0 Challenger Men - Singles: Granbi (Canada) - Qualifying, hard
Miyoshi K 2:0 Kuzukhara B. 🇺🇸Kuzukhara B. 🇺🇸
10.07 20:00 UTC+0 ITF Men - Singles: M25 Laval (Canada), hard
Miyoshi K 2:0 Poling K. 🇺🇸Poling K. 🇺🇸
4 Wins
1 Losses
1.8 Sets won
0.4 Sets lost
80% Win percentage
Nakagawa S
W W L
27.07 06:30 UTC+0 Challenger Men - Singles: Samsun (Turkey) - Qualifying, hard
Nakagawa S 2:1 Bashich M. (Big)
26.07 08:30 UTC+0 Challenger Men - Singles: Samsun (Turkey) - Qualifying, hard
Nakagawa S 2:0 Purtseladze S. 🇬🇪
02.06 23:30 UTC+0 ITF Men - Singles: M15 Harmon (Guam), hard
Nakagawa S 0:2 Sinkler K. 🇲🇦
2 Wins
1 Losses
1.3 Sets won
1.0 Sets lost
67% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMiyoshi K - Nakagawa S

Miyoshi K
0 matches total
Nakagawa S
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history