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ITF Men - Singles: M25 Fano (Italy), clay
ITF Men - Singles: M25 Fano (Italy), clay
03.08.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction

Baragiola Mordini T C - Serafini M

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis ITF Men - Singles: M25 Fano (Italy), clay
ITF Men - Singles: M25 Fano (Italy), clay clay 03.08.2026 18:45 UTC Finished
03.08.2026 18:45 UTC Finished
B
Baragiola Mordini T C
S
Serafini M
0:2 3:6 6:7
1 2 GP
Baragiola Mordini T C 3 6 0
Serafini M 6 7 2
1 2
Odds
P1 3.80 24.6% BetBoom
P2 1.24 75.4% BetBoom
Coverage: clay
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

- Country -
- Rating -
- Age -
- Height (cm) -
- Weight (kg) -
- Hand -
- Seed -
clay Coverage clay
0 H2H 0

Baragiola Mordini T C face Serafini M on August 3, 2026 in the ITF Men - Singles: M25 Fano (Italy), clay.

PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 28% to win. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Serafini M — 72%

Pure model vs market (2 · Serafini M): model 49% · market 76% Δ −27 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Baragiola Mordini T C27.6%
market24%
2 · Serafini M ✓ Pick72.4%
market76%

Model estimate: win Baragiola Mordini T C 27.6%, win Serafini M 72.4%. Model favourite — Serafini M.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Serafini M (odds1.40) Score 1:2 confidence 64% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Baragiola Mordini T
  • • C
  • • 🇮🇹 — Serafini M
  • • 🇮🇹 (tennis)
  • • Baragiola Mordini T
  • • C
  • • 🇮🇹: forma PPVPP (1-4)
  • • Serafini M
  • • 🇮🇹: forma VPP (1-2)
  • • Model backs Serafini M
  • • 🇮🇹: probability 64% vs 71% on the line (odds 1.40)
  • • no edge over the line (-7 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Baragiola Mordini T C - Serafini M August 3, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Serafini M.

Line favourite Fonbet: Serafini M. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 8.50 / 2 1.02
  • Glicko: Baragiola Mordini T C 27.6% / Serafini M 72.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.4% 3 books
1 24.5%
2 ✓ Pick 75.6%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Baragiola Mordini T C
4-6LWLLLLWWWL
scored 0.9conceded 1.5
Serafini M

no data

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Match center
Start 03.08.2026 18:45 UTC
Market 1 10.7% @ 8.50 / 2 89.3% @ 1.02
Coverage clay
Form 6 matches
Match center

Baragiola Mordini T C - Serafini M

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/3 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Movement Line history
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 0:2
Events 0
Statistics 0
Set Baragiola Mordini T C Serafini M Result
Set 1 3 6 3:6
Set 2 6 7 6:7
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage away - 72.4% fact: away hit / ROI 24.0% / Brier 0.152 / LogLoss 0.323
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage away - 52.7% fact: away hit / ROI 24.0% / Brier 0.448 / LogLoss 0.641
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Baragiola Mordini T C 25.0% 27.6%
Serafini M 75.0% 72.4% market and model agree
1X2: 2 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 27.6% / 72.4% probabilities
Rating 1,348 / 1,397 Baragiola Mordini T C / Serafini M
RD 201 / 216 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 946-1,750 / 966-1,828 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 72.4%
1 8.50 Fonbet · no value · model 27.6%
Total
Over 17.5 1.75 Fonbet · line only
Over 18.5 1.48 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Betcity Fonbet
— 1.80 55.6%
— 2.02 49.5%
— 2.90 34.5%
1.90 52.6% 1.04 96.2%
— 1.27 78.7%
— 1.78 56.2%
— 1.90 52.6%
— 1.70 58.8%
— 1.35 74.1%
— 6.80 14.7%
— 3.25 30.8%
— 1.92 52.1%
1.80 55.6% —

Total

Outcome Betcity Fonbet
Over 17.5 — 1.75 57.1%
Over 18.5 — 1.48 67.6%
Over 19.5 — 2.35 42.6%
Over 20.5 1.87 53.5% 1.90 52.6%
Over 21.5 — 1.90 52.6%
Over 22.5 — 4.00 25.0%
Over 24.5 — 1.85 54.1%
Over 26.5 — 1.88 53.2%
Over 27.5 — 1.95 51.3%
Over 28.5 — 1.78 56.2%
Under 17.5 — 1.95 51.3%
Under 18.5 — 2.45 40.8%
Under 19.5 — 1.52 65.8%
Under 20.5 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6%
Under 21.5 — 1.80 55.6%
Under 22.5 — 1.19 84.0%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
3.60 27.8% 3.80 26.3% 8.50 11.8%
1.24 80.7% 1.23 81.3% 1.02 98.0%
Match center
Baragiola Mordini T C
L L W L L
29.07 11:30 UTC+0 ITF Men - Singles: M15 Wels (Austria), clay
Baragiola Mordini T C 0:2 Ujvary M. 🇦🇹Ujvary M. 🇦🇹
22.07 06:00 UTC+0 ITF Men - Singles: M15 Segrate (Italy), clay
Baragiola Mordini T C 1:2 Martin Manzano J. C. 🇮🇹
21.07 06:00 UTC+0 ITF Men - Singles: M15 Segrate (Italy), clay
Baragiola Mordini T C 2:0 Katalano F
09.07 07:30 UTC+0 ITF Men - Singles: M15 Lodz (Poland), clay
Baragiola Mordini T C 1:2 Tsitsipas P. 🇬🇷
14.06 06:00 UTC+0 Challenger Men - Singles: Parma (Italy) - Qualifying, clay
Baragiola Mordini T C 0:2 Kompanuchchi T. 🇮🇹
1 Wins
4 Losses
0.8 Sets won
1.6 Sets lost
20% Win percentage
Serafini M
W L L
29.07 10:00 UTC+0 ITF Men - Singles: M15 Wels (Austria), clay
Serafini M 2:1 Gschiel A. 🇦🇹
16.07 17:00 UTC+0 ITF Men - Singles: M15 Gubbio (Italy), clay
Serafini M 1:2 Basile P. 🇮🇹Basile P. 🇮🇹
08.07 06:00 UTC+0 ITF Men - Singles: M15 Lodz (Poland), clay
Serafini M 0:2 Rossi L. 🇮🇹Rossi L. 🇮🇹
1 Wins
2 Losses
1.0 Sets won
1.7 Sets lost
33% Win percentage