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ITF Women - Singles: W75 Ourense (Spain), hard
ITF Women - Singles: W75 Ourense (Spain), hard
05.08.2026 11:00 UTC Match prediction

Toma M - Gao Xinyu

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis ITF Women - Singles: W75 Ourense (Spain), hard
ITF Women - Singles: W75 Ourense (Spain), hard hard 05.08.2026 11:00 UTC Finished
05.08.2026 11:00 UTC Finished
Toma M
Toma M
Gao Xinyu
Gao Xinyu
0:2
Odds
P1 11.00 8.5% BetBoom
P2 1.02 91.5% BetBoom
Coverage: hard
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

- Country -
- Rating -
- Age -
- Height (cm) -
- Weight (kg) -
- Hand -
- Seed -
hard Coverage hard
0 H2H 0

Toma M meet Gao Xinyu on August 5, 2026 in the ITF Women - Singles: W75 Ourense (Spain), hard.

PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 13% to win. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Gao Xinyu — 87%

Pure model vs market (2 · Gao Xinyu): model 48% · market 90% Δ −42 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Toma M12.9%
market10%
2 · Gao Xinyu ✓ Pick87.1%
market90%

Model estimate: win Toma M 12.9%, win Gao Xinyu 87.1%. Model favourite — Gao Xinyu.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Toma M - Gao Xinyu August 5, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Gao Xinyu.

Line favourite market consensus: Gao Xinyu. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 11.00 / 2 1.02
  • Glicko: Toma M 12.9% / Gao Xinyu 87.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.4% 3 books
1 9.5%
2 ✓ Pick 90.5%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Toma M

no data

Gao Xinyu
3-7WLLWLLLWLL
scored 1.0conceded 1.4

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Match center
Start 05.08.2026 11:00 UTC
Market 1 8.5% @ 11.00 / 2 91.5% @ 1.02
Coverage hard
Form 6 matches
Match center

Toma M - Gao Xinyu

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Movement Line history
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 0:2
Events 0
Statistics 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage away - 87.1% fact: away hit / ROI 2.0% / Brier 0.033 / LogLoss 0.138
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage away - 54.5% fact: away hit / ROI 2.0% / Brier 0.415 / LogLoss 0.608
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Toma M 8.5% 12.9%
Gao Xinyu 91.5% 87.1% market and model agree
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 12.9% / 87.1% probabilities
Rating 1,717 / 1,718 Toma M / Gao Xinyu
RD 177 / 146 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,362-2,071 / 1,427-2,009 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.01 market consensus · no value · model 87.1%
1 9.50 market consensus · no value · model 12.9%
Total
Over 16.5 1.82 market consensus · line only
Under 16.5 1.87 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
1.95 51.3% 1.90 52.6% 1.87 53.5%
1.76 56.8% 1.81 55.3% 1.77 56.5%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
Over 16.5 1.85 54.1% 1.81 55.3% 1.79 55.9%
Under 16.5 1.85 54.1% 1.90 52.6% 1.85 54.1%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
11.00 9.1% 9.70 10.3% 9.30 10.8%
1.01 99.0% 1.02 98.0% 1.01 99.0%
Match center
Toma M
W W L L L
03.08 09:10 UTC+0 World Tennis. Women. Orense
Toma M 2:0 Lopes-Alkaras E
02.08 09:12 UTC+0 World Tennis. Women. Orense
Toma M 2:0 Martines-Kintana A
27.07 09:08 UTC+0 World Tennis. Women. Khekhingen
Toma M 1:2 Khanatani N
22.07 08:30 UTC+0 World Tennis. Women. Khorb
Toma M 1:2 Torner Sensano N. 🇪🇸
22.07 06:30 UTC+0 ITF Women - Singles: W50 Horb (Germany), clay
Toma M 1:2 Torner Sensano N. 🇪🇸
2 Wins
3 Losses
1.4 Sets won
1.2 Sets lost
40% Win percentage
Gao Xinyu
L W W L W
21.07 08:30 UTC+0 WTA - Singles: Livesport Prague Open (Czechia), hard
Gao Xinyu 0:2 Tagger L. 🇦🇹Tagger L. 🇦🇹
19.07 07:00 UTC+0 WTA - Singles: Livesport Prague Open (Czechia) - Qualifying, hard
Gao Xinyu 2:1 Frukhvirtova L. 🇨🇿Frukhvirtova L. 🇨🇿
18.07 07:00 UTC+0 WTA - Singles: Livesport Prague Open (Czechia) - Qualifying, hard
Gao Xinyu 2:0 Bandechchi S. 🇨🇭Bandechchi S. 🇨🇭
16.07 11:30 UTC+0 Challenger Women - Singles: Istanbul 2 (Turkey), hard
Gao Xinyu 0:2 Valdmannova V. 🇨🇿Valdmannova V. 🇨🇿
14.07 11:00 UTC+0 Challenger Women - Singles: Istanbul 2 (Turkey), hard
Gao Xinyu 2:1 Frukhvirtova L. 🇨🇿Frukhvirtova L. 🇨🇿
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.2 Sets won
1.2 Sets lost
60% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyToma M - Gao Xinyu

Toma M
0 matches total
Gao Xinyu
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history