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ATP Montreal, Canada Men Singles
ATP Montreal, Canada Men Singles
2nd round 05.08.2026 15:05 UTC Match prediction

Bergs Z - Baez S

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis ATP Montreal, Canada Men Singles
ATP Montreal, Canada Men Singles 2nd round hard 05.08.2026 15:05 UTC Finished
05.08.2026 15:05 UTC 2nd round Finished
Bergs Z
Bergs Z Belgium
Rank #34 Elo 1340
L L W W W W W W
Baez S
Baez S Argentina
Rank #48 Elo 1000
W W W W W W L W
2:1
Stadium: IGA Stadium. Devyatyy kort Coverage: hard
Preview

About the athletes

Belgium Country Argentina
#34 Rating #48
27 Age 25
185 Height (cm) 170
88 Weight (kg) 70
Right Hand Right
31 Seed 1
hard Coverage hard
1 H2H 1

Serve and return stats

Bergs Z Baez S
Aces per match 6.29 1.51
Double faults per match 4.25 1.72
Breaks per match 1.46 2.32

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

Form over the last year

Bergs Z
52% 26 / 50
52% 26 / 50
Sintetika
no data
clay
3 iz 8
grass
7 iz 10
hard
16 iz 32
Baez S
50% 25 / 50
50% 25 / 50
Sintetika
no data
clay
11 iz 23
grass
0 iz 1
hard
14 iz 26

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Zizou Bergs
Rank:34 Elo: 1340
L L W W W W W W
Sebastian Baez
Rank:48 Elo: 1000
W W W W W W L W
Elo favourite:Bergs Z (edge +340 Elo)

Hard

Zizou BergsSebastian Baez
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 33.3% 3 / 9 Matches 70.0% 7 / 10 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 42.3% 11 / 26 Matches 47.6% 10 / 21 Matches

Clay

Zizou BergsSebastian Baez
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 44.4% 4 / 9 Matches 58.6% 17 / 29 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 44.4% 4 / 9 Matches 56.7% 17 / 30 Matches

Grass

Zizou BergsSebastian Baez
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 71.4% 5 / 7 Matches N/A 0 / 0 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 71.4% 5 / 7 Matches N/A 0 / 0 Matches

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Zizou Bergs Sebastian Baez
H2H wins 1 (100.0%) 0 (0.0%)
Sets 2 (100.0%) 0 (0.0%)
Wins this year 46.7% 14 / 30 Matches 58.1% 25 / 43 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 46.8% 22 / 47 Matches 50.9% 28 / 55 Matches
Current rank 34 48

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Zizou Bergs Sebastian Baez
Prize money (career) $1,398,033 USD $4,315,437 USD
Rating 34 48
Age 27 25
Height 1.85m 1.70m
Weight 85kg 70kg
Playing hand Right-handed Right-handed

Win percentage (match / set)

Zizou Bergs Sebastian Baez
Match Wins 47 % 58 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 48 % 62 %
Match Wins (5 Sets) 0 % 33 %
Wins in Straight Sets 27 % 44 %
Wins From Behind 16 % 10 %
Won At Least 1 Set 63 % 70 %
Set 1 Win 50 % 60 %
Set 2 Win 43 % 53 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Match stats (live, tennisstats)

Zizou Bergs Sebastian Baez
Aces 7 1
Double Faults 4 4
1st serve percentage 56% 66%
1st serve points won 81% (30/37) 59% (35/59)
2nd serve points won 59% (17/29) 55% (17/31)
Break Points Saved 0/2 8/12
1st return points won 41% (24/59) 35% (13/37)
2nd return points won 45% (14/31) 41% (12/29)
Break Points Converted 4/12 2/2
Service Points Won 71% (47/66) 58% (52/90)
Return Points Won 42% (38/90) 29% (19/66)
Total Points Won 54% (85/156) 46% (71/156)
Last 10 balls 4 6
Match points saved 0 1
Service games won 85% (11/13) 69% (9/13)
Return games won 31% (4/13) 15% (2/13)
Total games won 58% (15/26) 42% (11/26)

Source:tennisstats.com

Head-to-head history

2024
ATP Montreal, Canada Men Singles
  Bergs Z 0
  Baez S 0

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Zizou Bergs Sebastian Baez Match total
Average Games in a Set 9.9 9.98 9.94
Over 6.5 100 % 100 % 100 %
Over 7.5 92 % 90 % 91 %
Over 8.5 76 % 79 % 78 %
Over 9.5 44 % 64 % 54 %
Over 10.5 24 % 33 % 29 %
Over 11.5 24 % 33 % 29 %

Aces

Zizou Bergs Sebastian Baez Match total
Aces Per Match 6.29 1.51 7.80
Most Aces in a match 54 % 15 % N/A
1+ 96 % 79 % 99 %
2+ 88 % 41 % 96 %
3+ 75 % 15 % 91 %
4+ 67 % 8 % 82 %
5+ 63 % 8 % 66 %

Breaks

Zizou Bergs Sebastian Baez Match total
Breaks Per Match 1.46 2.32 3.78
Over 0.5 8 % 97 % 100 %
Over 1.5 8 % 95 % 100 %
Over 2.5 4 % 18 % 56 %
Over 3.5 0 % 13 % 53 %
Over 4.5 0 % 5 % 33 %
Over 5.5 0 % 3 % 30 %

Tie-breaks

Zizou Bergs Sebastian Baez Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.4 0.21 0.3
Over 0.5 28 % 21 % 24 %
Over 1.5 12 % 0 % 6 %
Under 0.5 72 % 79 % 24 %
Under 1.5 88 % 100 % 6 %

Double faults

Zizou Bergs Sebastian Baez Match total
Double Faults Per Match 4.25 1.72 5.97
Over 0.5 (1+) 100 % 90 % 99 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 96 % 41 % 90 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 79 % 28 % 82 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 58 % 10 % 72 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 38 % 3 % 61 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 17 % 0 % 46 %

Net points

Zizou Bergs Sebastian Baez Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 5.03 5.71 10.74
Over 4.5 (5+) 60 % 54 % 57 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 35 % 43 % 39 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 30 % 29 % 30 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 30 % 14 % 22 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 15 % 14 % 15 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 15 % 11 % 13 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 1.65 58.8% BetBoom
P2 2.35 41.3% BetBoom

Bergs Z face Baez S on August 5, 2026 in the ATP Montreal, Canada Men Singles.

Recent form (W-D-L): Bergs Z 3-0-2, Baez S 3-0-2. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 57% to win. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Bergs Z — 57%

Pure model vs market (1 · Bergs Z): model 44% · market 59% Δ −15 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Bergs Z57.2%
2 · Baez S42.8%

Model estimate: win Bergs Z 57.2%, win Baez S 42.8%. Model favourite — Bergs Z.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Bergs Z (odds1.58) Score 2:1 confidence 58% ✓ outcome correct · exact score
  • • Bergs Z
  • • 🇧🇪 — Baes S
  • • 🇦🇷 (tennis)
  • • Bergs Z
  • • 🇧🇪: forma PPVVP (2-3)
  • • Baes S
  • • 🇦🇷: forma VPVVV (4-1)
  • • Model backs Bergs Z
  • • 🇧🇪: probability 58% vs 63% on the line (odds 1.58)
  • • no edge over the line (-5 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Bergs Z - Baez S August 5, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bergs Z.

Line favourite Fonbet: Bergs Z. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.65 / 2 2.25
  • Glicko: Bergs Z 57.2% / Baez S 42.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.1% 4 books · best price +2.2%
1 58.6%
2 41.4%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 1.60 ↑ 1.65
Winner 2 2.35 ↓ 2.25

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Bergs Z
59%
1.65
Baez S
41%
2.35
Total
Over 22.5
48%
2.04
Under 22.5
52%
1.83

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Bergs Z
7-3LWWWWWWLLW
scored 1.9conceded 1.3
Baez S

no data

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:2/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated05.08.2026 16:39 UTC
1 58% ✓ favourite
2 42%
Score2:1 Total games: Over 22.5 Bet:1
Per AI data H2H: 1:1
Claude updated05.08.2026 16:42 UTC
1 62% ✓ favourite
2 38%
Score2:0 Total games: Over 22.5 Bet:1 — win Bergsa (ot 1.70)

AI consensus:1

AI 1 2 Score Total games Bet
Google AI 58% 42% 2:1 Over 22.5
Claude 62% 38% 2:0 Over 22.5
Match center
Stadium IGA Stadium. Devyatyy kort
Start 05.08.2026 15:05 UTC
Market 1 57.7% @ 1.65 / 2 42.3% @ 2.25
Stage 2-y krug
Coverage hard
Form 9 matches
H2H 1
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Bergs Z 60%
📐 Math model Bergs Z 57%
💹 Market Bergs Z 59%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Bergs Z - Baez S

Onlayn translyatsiya tennisnogo matcha Zizu Bergs - Sebastyan Baes. Monreal. Vsya informatsiya: statistika, novosti, intervyu, foto

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Championat match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Donor check 2 block. lineup_availability, officials
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Movement
More needed
Lineup / squad source needed
Referees source needed
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 2:1
Events 0
Statistics 20
Metric Bergs Z Baez S SStats
Breyk-poynty realizovany 4/12 2/2 final
Points na prieme 42% (38/90) 29% (19/66) final
Eysy 7 1 final
Breyk-poynty otygrany 0/2 8/12 final
Dvoynye oshibki 4 4 final
Pervaya podacha, % 56% 66% final
Points na pervoy podache 81% (30/37) 59% (35/59) final
Points na vtoroy podache 59% (17/29) 55% (17/31) final
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H home - 57.2% fact: home hit / ROI 65.0% / Brier 0.366 / LogLoss 0.559
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H home - 50.9% fact: home hit / ROI 65.0% / Brier 0.483 / LogLoss 0.676
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Bergs Z 58.6% 56.0% market and model agree
Baez S 41.4% 44.0% market and model agree
1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko57.2% · +Elo prior (weight0.32).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 57.2% / 42.8% probabilities
Rating 1,632 / 1,863 Bergs Z / Baez S
RD 181 / 130 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,269-1,995 / 1,603-2,122 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.25 Fonbet · no value · model 42.8%
1 1.65 Fonbet · no value · model 57.2%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.10 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 2.25 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.65 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 1.55 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 19.5 1.38 Fonbet · line only
Over 20.5 1.53 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
— — 1.65 60.6%
— 1.82 55.0% 1.75 57.1%
1.87 53.5% 1.97 50.8% 1.95 51.3%
— — 2.25 44.4%
— — 2.25 44.4%
— 2.00 50.0% 2.45 40.8%
1.91 52.4% 1.84 54.4% 2.75 36.4%
— — 2.10 47.6%
— — 1.95 51.3%
— — 1.80 55.6%
— — 1.57 63.7%
— — 1.38 72.5%

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.25 80.0%
2.55 39.2%
1.48 67.6%
3.65 27.4%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 19.5 — — 1.38 72.5%
Over 20.5 — — 1.53 65.4%
Over 21.5 — — 1.70 58.8%
Over 22.5 1.99 50.3% 2.04 49.0% 1.98 50.5%
Over 23.5 — — 2.13 47.0%
Over 24.5 — — 2.25 44.4%
Over 25.5 — — 2.45 40.8%
Over 26.5 — — 2.80 35.7%
Over 27.5 — — 2.85 35.1%
Under 19.5 — — 2.80 35.7%
Under 20.5 — — 2.35 42.6%
Under 21.5 — — 2.02 49.5%
Under 22.5 1.80 55.6% 1.78 56.2% 1.83 54.6%
Under 23.5 — — 1.63 61.4%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 2.5 2.30 43.5%
Under 2.5 1.58 63.3%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 2-0-0
2026-08-05 · Zizu Bergs 2:1 Sebastyan Baes
2024-10-17 · Zizu Bergs 2:0 Sebastyan Baes
Source: ruscore

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.57 (Winline) · 2 2.5 (Pari)
Bookmaker12
Pari 1.55 2.5
Winline 1.57 2.4
Fonbet 1.55 2.5
Betcity 1.54 2.48
Source: ruscore · line comparison

Match stats

7 Eysy 1
4 Dvoynye oshibki 4
12 Vsego breyk-poyntov 2
4 Vyigrannye breyk-poynty 2
85 Vyigrannye Points 71
47 Points na podache 52
19 Poteryannye Points na podache 38
37 Uspeshnaya 1-ya podacha 60
25 Uspeshnaya 2-ya podacha 26
30 Vyigrysh 1-y podachi 35
17 Vyigrysh 2-y podachi 17
8 Maks. ochkov podryad 4
4 Points, vyigrannye iz poslednikh 10 rozygryshey 6
11 Geymy na podache 9
15 Vyigrannye geymy 11
3 Maks. geymov podryad 3
0 Tay-breyk 0
Source: ruscore
Bergs Z
L L W W W
2026-07-27 2026 Washington, USA
Bergs Z Fritz T 2:0 Bergs Z
2026-07-04 2026 Wimbledon, London, Great Britain
Bergs Z Bergs Z 2:3 Fery A
2026-07-02 2026 Wimbledon, London, Great Britain
Bergs Z Bergs Z 3:1 Faria J
2026-06-30 2026 Wimbledon, London, Great Britain
Bergs Z Humbert U 2:3 Bergs Z
2026-06-27 2026 Eastbourne, Great Britain
Bergs Z Bergs Z 2:1 Humbert U
3 Wins
2 Losses
2.0 Sets won
1.8 Sets lost
60% Win percentage
Baez S
W L W W L
2026-08-04 2026 Montreal, Canada
Baez S 2:0 Bellucci M Baez S
2026-07-23 2026 Kitzbuhel, Austria
Hanfmann Y 2:0 Baez S Baez S
2026-07-22 2026 Kitzbuhel, Austria
Baez S 2:1 Rinderknech A Baez S
2026-07-21 2026 Kitzbuhel, Austria
Baez S 2:1 Kecmanovic M Baez S
2026-07-17 2026 Bastad, Sweden
Rublev A 2:0 Baez S Baez S
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.2 Sets won
1.2 Sets lost
60% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyBergs Z - Baez S

Bergs Z
0 matches total
Baez S
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Event
2024 Antverpen hard 2-y krug Z. Zizu Bergs Zizu Bergs (Belgium) 2 6 S. Sebastyan Baes Sebastyan Baes (Argentina) 0 3 4 ; ; CHAMP('m