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ATP Challenger. Todi
ATP Challenger. Todi International
10.08.2026 08:00 UTC Match prediction

Vanshelboim E - Mecarelli M

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis ATP Challenger. Todi
ATP Challenger. Todi 10.08.2026 08:00 UTC Finished
10.08.2026 08:00 UTC Finished
Vanshelboim E
Vanshelboim E
Rank #420 Elo 114
63Average Form
W L W W W W W W
Mecarelli M
Mecarelli M
Rank #950 Elo 23
52Average Form
W W W W W W W W
0:2 3:6 0:6
1 2 GP
Vanshelboim E 3 0 0
Mecarelli M 6 6 2
1 2
Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Vanshelboim E Mecarelli M
Win % 62.9% 46.8%
Hard % 61.9% 66.7%
Clay % 62.9% 37.5%
Grass % 33.3% 0%
Deciding set % 70% 53.3%
Tie-breaks % 58.9% 27.3%
Titles (total) 5 0
Last 10 WLWWWLWWWW WLWLLWWLLW

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

- Country -
#420 Rating #950
25 Age -
1.88m Height (cm) -
87kg Weight (kg) -
- Hand -
- Seed -
- Coverage -
0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

Vanshelboim E Mecarelli M
Aces per match 1.36 1.80
Double faults per match 1.64 3
Breaks per match 2.68 3.5

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Eric Vanshelboim
Rank:420 Elo: 114
W L W W W W W W
Michele Mecarelli
Rank:950 Elo: 23
W W W W W W W W
Elo favourite:Vanshelboim E (edge +91 Elo)

Hard

Eric VanshelboimMichele Mecarelli
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 37.5% 3 / 8 Matches 70.0% 7 / 10 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 51.9% 14 / 27 Matches 64.3% 9 / 14 Matches
Aces Per Match 1.83 4.00
Most Aces in a match 67 % 50 %

Clay

Eric VanshelboimMichele Mecarelli
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 71.0% 22 / 31 Matches 40.0% 6 / 15 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 66.7% 26 / 39 Matches 36.4% 8 / 22 Matches
Aces Per Match 0.80 0.33
Most Aces in a match 20 % 0 %

Grass

Eric VanshelboimMichele Mecarelli
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year N/A 0 / 0 Matches N/A 0 / 0 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months N/A 0 / 0 Matches N/A 0 / 0 Matches
Aces Per Match N/A N/A
Most Aces in a match N/A N/A

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Eric Vanshelboim Michele Mecarelli
H2H wins 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Sets 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Wins this year 62.5% 25 / 40 Matches 51.6% 16 / 31 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 59.7% 40 / 67 Matches 47.6% 20 / 42 Matches
Current rank 420 950

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Eric Vanshelboim Michele Mecarelli
Prize money (career) $105,196 USD $0 USD
Rating 420 950
Age 25 —
Height 1.88m —
Weight 87kg —

Win percentage (match / set)

Eric Vanshelboim Michele Mecarelli
Match Wins 63 % 52 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 64 % 52 %
Wins in Straight Sets 35 % 29 %
Wins From Behind 35 % 21 %
Won At Least 1 Set 70 % 65 %
Set 1 Win 45 % 48 %
Set 2 Win 60 % 47 %
Set 3 Win 79 % 64 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Eric Vanshelboim Michele Mecarelli Match total
Average Games in a Set 9.2 8.84 9.02
Over 6.5 97 % 92 % 95 %
Over 7.5 79 % 72 % 76 %
Over 8.5 67 % 60 % 64 %
Over 9.5 41 % 44 % 43 %
Over 10.5 18 % 8 % 13 %
Over 11.5 18 % 8 % 13 %

Aces

Eric Vanshelboim Michele Mecarelli Match total
Aces Per Match 1.36 1.80 3.16
Most Aces in a match 45 % 20 % N/A
1+ 73 % 40 % 96 %
2+ 36 % 20 % 87 %
3+ 18 % 20 % 43 %
4+ 9 % 20 % 38 %
5+ 0 % 20 % 24 %

Breaks

Eric Vanshelboim Michele Mecarelli Match total
Breaks Per Match 2.68 3.5 6.18
Over 0.5 64 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 64 % 100 % 100 %
Over 2.5 55 % 100 % 100 %
Over 3.5 45 % 100 % 87 %
Over 4.5 45 % 100 % 82 %
Over 5.5 45 % 0 % 78 %

Tie-breaks

Eric Vanshelboim Michele Mecarelli Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.15 0.2 0.18
Over 0.5 13 % 16 % 14 %
Over 1.5 3 % 4 % 3 %
Under 0.5 87 % 84 % 14 %
Under 1.5 97 % 96 % 3 %

Double faults

Eric Vanshelboim Michele Mecarelli Match total
Double Faults Per Match 1.64 3 4.64
Over 0.5 (1+) 73 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 45 % 80 % 96 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 27 % 40 % 82 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 9 % 20 % 48 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 9 % 20 % 38 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 0 % 20 % 29 %

Net points

Eric Vanshelboim Michele Mecarelli Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 11.89 9 20.89
Over 4.5 (5+) 67 % 50 % 59 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 67 % 0 % 34 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 67 % 0 % 34 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 56 % 0 % 28 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 44 % 0 % 22 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 44 % 0 % 22 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 1.73 61.0% BetBoom
P2 2.70 39.1% BetBoom

Vanshelboim E take on Mecarelli M on August 10, 2026 in the ATP Challenger. Todi, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Vanshelboim E 1-0-4, Mecarelli M 2-1-2. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 60% to win. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Vanshelboim E — 60%

Pure model vs market (1 · Vanshelboim E): model 61% · market 60% Δ +1 pp model estimate matches the market

1 · Vanshelboim E ✓ Pick60.4%
market60%
2 · Mecarelli M39.6%
market40%

Model estimate: win Vanshelboim E 60.4%, win Mecarelli M 39.6%. Model favourite — Vanshelboim E.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Vanshelboim E (odds1.55) Score 2:1 confidence 60% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Vanshelboym E: forma VPVVV (4-1)
  • • Mekarelli M: forma VPVPV (3-2)
  • • Model backs Vanshelboym E: probability 60% vs 64% on the line (odds 1.55)
  • • no edge over the line (-4 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Vanshelboim E - Mecarelli M August 10, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Mecarelli M.

Line favourite Fonbet: Mecarelli M. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 11.00 / 2 1.01
  • Glicko: Vanshelboim E 60.4% / Mecarelli M 39.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.0% 6 books · best price +616.6%
1 ✓ Pick 60.3%
2 39.7%

Odds source: consensus of 6 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 1.55 ↑ 1.73
Winner 2 2.30 ↓ 2.05

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Vanshelboim E
60%
11.00
Mecarelli M
40%
2.70
Total
Over 21.5
48%
2.15
Under 21.5
52%
1.77

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Vanshelboim E
5-5WWWLWLLLLW
scored 1.2conceded 1.3
Mecarelli M

no data

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Match center
Start 10.08.2026 08:00 UTC
Market 1 8.4% @ 11.00 / 2 91.6% @ 1.01
Form 6 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Vanshelboim E 60%
💹 Market Vanshelboim E 60%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Vanshelboim E - Mecarelli M

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 0:2
Events 0
Statistics 20
Set Vanshelboim E Mecarelli M Result
Set 1 3 6 3:6
Set 2 0 6 0:6
Metric Vanshelboim E Mecarelli M SStats
Breyk-poynty realizovany 0/0 0/0 final
Points na prieme 100% (1/1) 0% (0/0) final
Eysy 0 0 final
Breyk-poynty otygrany 0/0 0/0 final
Dvoynye oshibki 0 0 final
Pervaya podacha, % 0% 100% final
Points na pervoy podache 0% (0/0) 0% (0/1) final
Points na vtoroy podache 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0) final
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form home - 60.4% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.728 / LogLoss 0.925
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form home - 51.2% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.525 / LogLoss 0.718
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Vanshelboim E 60.3% 57.3% market and model agree
Mecarelli M 39.7% 42.7% market and model agree
1X2: 6 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko60.4% · +Elo prior (weight0.32).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 60.4% / 39.6% probabilities
Rating 1,810 / 1,571 Vanshelboim E / Mecarelli M
RD 148 / 163 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,514-2,107 / 1,245-1,896 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 39.6%
1 1.50 market consensus · no value · model 60.4%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.82 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.78 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.88 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 1.92 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 15.5 1.35 Fonbet · line only
Over 16.5 1.93 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
1.88 53.2% 1.87 53.5% —
— — 1.78 56.2%
— — 1.70 58.8%
— — 1.67 59.9%
1.82 55.0% 1.83 54.6% 1.47 68.0%
— — 1.55 64.5%
— — 1.50 66.7%
— — 1.78 56.2%
— — 1.77 56.5%
— — 1.82 55.0%
— — 1.82 55.0%
— — 1.90 52.6%
— — 1.68 59.5%
— — 1.65 60.6%
— — 1.65 60.6%

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
11.00 9.1%
10.00 10.0%
1.02 98.0%
1.01 99.0%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 15.5 — — 1.35 74.1%
Over 16.5 — — 1.93 51.8%
Over 17.5 — — 1.90 52.6%
Over 18.5 — — 2.40 41.7%
Over 19.5 — — 2.40 41.7%
Over 20.5 1.76 56.8% 1.81 55.3% 1.68 59.5%
Over 21.5 1.94 51.6% — 2.15 46.5%
Over 22.5 — — 1.90 52.6%
Over 23.5 — — 1.95 51.3%
Under 15.5 — — 2.90 34.5%
Under 16.5 — — 1.77 56.5%
Under 17.5 — — 1.80 55.6%
Under 20.5 1.95 51.3% 1.90 52.6% —
Under 21.5 1.77 56.5% — —

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 2.5 11.00 9.1%
Under 2.5 1.01 99.0%
Match center
Vanshelboim E
W L L L L
2026-08-09 2026 Todi, Italy, Qualifying
Vanshelboim E Vanshelboim E 2:1 Buldorini P
2026-04-13 2026 Santa Cruz, Bolivia
Vanshelboim E Vanshelboim E 1:2 Rodriguez Taverna S F
2026-04-05 2026 Campinas, Brazil, Qualifying
Vanshelboim E Vanshelboim E 0:2 Zanellato N
2026-03-30 2026 Menorca, Spain, Qualifying
Vanshelboim E Donski A 2:1 Vanshelboim E
2026-03-22 2026 Montemar, Spain, Qualifying
Vanshelboim E Brancaccio R 1:0 Vanshelboim E
1 Wins
4 Losses
0.8 Sets won
1.6 Sets lost
20% Win percentage
Mecarelli M
W L L D W
2026-08-09 2026 Todi, Italy, Qualifying
Mecarelli M 2:0 Vasa E Mecarelli M
2026-06-14 2026 Parma, Italy, Qualifying
Mecarelli M 0:2 Paul J Mecarelli M
2026-06-07 2026 Cattolica, Italy, Qualifying
Nesterov P 2:0 Mecarelli M Mecarelli M
2026-02-04 2026 Cesenatico, Italy
Mecarelli M 1:1 Iannaccone F Mecarelli M
2026-02-02 2026 Cesenatico, Italy, Qualifying
Mecarelli M 2:1 Simundza J Mecarelli M
2 Wins
2 Losses
1.0 Sets won
1.2 Sets lost
40% Win percentage