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AI verdict

AI pick Faria J win probability ~50% best odds 7.00

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Faria J. Full breakdown below.

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US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge
US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge International
02.09.2026 15:00 UTC

Faria J vs Alcaraz C — Tennis prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge
US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge 02.09.2026 15:00 UTC Not started
02.09.2026 15:00 UTC Not started
Faria J
Faria J
W L W W W
Alcaraz C
Alcaraz C
W W L W W
-:-
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Faria J — 50%

1 · Faria J50.1%
2 · Alcaraz C49.9%

Model estimate: win Faria J 50.1%, win Alcaraz C 49.9%. Model favourite — Faria J.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick banker

Match winner — Alcaraz C

Model confidence 86% ~95% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Faria J - Alcaraz C September 2, 2026

Tennis math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Alcaraz C. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 7.00 / 2 1.10

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.2% 4 books · best price +1.8%
1 14.1%
2 85.9%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner P1 6.40 → 6.40
Winner P2 1.12 → 1.12

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Faria J
14%
7.00
Alcaraz C
86%
1.12
Total
Over 34.5
51%
1.89
Under 34.5
49%
1.95

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

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Preview

About the athletes

- Country -
- Rating -
- Age -
- Height (cm) -
- Weight (kg) -
- Hand -
- Seed -
- Coverage -
0 H2H 0
Odds
P1 6.40 14.9% BetBoom
P2 1.12 85.1% BetBoom

Faria J take on Alkaras K. (Isp) in tennis, in US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge, on 2 September 2026. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model makes Faria J the favourite, with a win probability of about 50%. Sportsbook prices (1 book) put that result at roughly 15%.

Latest form: Faria J 4 won and 1 lost; Alkaras K. (Isp) 2 won and 0 lost. Alkaras K. (Isp) come in having won their last matches. On the Glicko scale it is 1730 for Faria J against 1797 for Alkaras K. (Isp) - a gap of 67 points.

Our model is notably more confident in the favourite than the market. Model confidence in the favourite is low. That is a 35-point gap to the market. The match is close, and the model flags no clear safer edge. Key markers: an edge of 67 Glicko rating points, the model's 50% for Faria J. Read on for team stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI AI prediction. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Faria J
6-4WLLLWWWWWL
sets for 1.4sets against 0.9
Alcaraz C
7-3WLWLWWWWLW
sets for 1.5sets against 0.7

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Playoff draw

Tournament bracket 2026 US Open, New York, USA, Qualifying

Qualification round 1
Gea, Arthur2
Nagal, Sumit0
Chidekh, Clement2
Coria, Federico0
Mikrut, Luka2
Sanchez Izquierdo, Nikolas0
Kouame, Moise1
Basavareddy, Nishesh2
Wong, Coleman2
Moller, Elmer1
Neumayer, Lukas2
McCabe, James0
Squire, Henri1
Jorda Sanchis, David2
Kwon, Soonwoo0
Lajovic, Dusan0
Gaston, Hugo2
Justo, Guido Ivan0
Ilagan, Andre2
Boyer, Tristan1
Kym, Jerome2
Added, Dan0
Smith, Colton2
Pellegrino, Andrea1
Fearnley, Jacob2
Carballes Baena, Roberto0
Pavlovic, Luka2
Varillas, Juan Pablo1
Dedura-Palomero, Diego0
Ferreira Silva, Frederico2
Coppejans, Kimmer0
Rodionov, Jurij2
Droguet, Titouan1
Rincon, Daniel2
Lajal, Mark1
Lee, Jordan2
Den Ouden, Guy1
Olivieri, Genaro Alberto2
Prado Angelo, Juan Carlos1
Barrios Vera, Tomas2
Mochizuki, Shintaro2
Milavsky, Daniel0
Shick, Braden2
Tabur, Clement0
Passaro, Francesco2
Gill, Felix0
Martin Tiffon, Pol0
Gentzsch, Tom2
Samuel, Toby2
Maestrelli, Francesco1
Bueno, Gonzalo0
Harris, Billy2
Roncadelli, Franco0
Ymer, Elias2
Johnson, Spencer1
Garin, Cristian2
Svrcina, Dalibor2
Meligeni Alves, Felipe0
Smith, Keegan0
Galarneau, Alexis2
Brancaccio, Raul0
Seyboth Wild, Thiago2
Napolitano, Stefano0
McDonald, Mackenzie2
Virtanen, Otto2
Blanchet, Ugo0
Pinnington Jones, Jack2
Svajda, Trevor0
Skatov, Timofey2
Bailly, Gilles Arnaud0
Giustino, Lorenzo0
Dimitrov, Grigor2
Jacquet, Kyrian2
Midon, Lautaro0
Gomez, Federico Agustin0
Dougaz, Aziz2
Guerrieri, Andrea2
Holmgren, August1
Schwaerzler, Joel2
Heide, Gustavo1
Bu, Yunchaokete2
Noguchi, Rio1
Kolar, Zdenek0
Gojo, Borna2
Nardi, Luca0
Cina, Federico0
Echargui, Moez0
Dellien, Hugo2
Piros, Zsombor2
Alcala Gurri, Max0
Martinez, Pedro0
Glinka, Daniil2
Kasnikowski, Maks1
Budkov Kjaer, Nicolai2
Sakellaridis, Stefanos0
O'Connell, Christopher2
Mejia, Nicolas1
Draxl, Liam2
Daniel, Taro1
Johnson, Andrew2
Secord, Jack0
Schoolkate, Tristan2
Hong, Seongchan2
Basilashvili, Nikoloz0
Gaubas, Vilius2
Feldbausch, Kilian0
Cecchinato, Marco2
Broady, Liam0
Bertola, Remy2
Moro Canas, Alejandro0
Wendelken, Harry2
Travaglia, Stefano1
Rocha, Henrique2
Mmoh, Michael0
Tomic, Bernard1
Harris, Lloyd2
Onclin, Gauthier0
Sachko, Vitaliy2
Bolt, Alex0
Llamas Ruiz, Pablo2
Ofner, Sebastian1
Nishikori, Kei2
Antonius, Michael2
Searle, Henry0
Clarke, Jay1
Sakamoto, Rei2
Djere, Laslo0
Muller, Alexandre2
Qualification round 2
Gea, Arthur2
Chidekh, Clement1
Mikrut, Luka0
Basavareddy, Nishesh2
Wong, Coleman2
Neumayer, Lukas0
Jorda Sanchis, David0
Lajovic, Dusan2
Gaston, Hugo2
Ilagan, Andre0
Kym, Jerome1
Smith, Colton2
Fearnley, Jacob2
Pavlovic, Luka1
Ferreira Silva, Frederico1
Rodionov, Jurij2
Rincon, Daniel2
Lee, Jordan1
Olivieri, Genaro Alberto0
Barrios Vera, Tomas2
Mochizuki, Shintaro2
Shick, Braden0
Passaro, Francesco2
Gentzsch, Tom0
Samuel, Toby2
Harris, Billy1
Ymer, Elias0
Garin, Cristian2
Svrcina, Dalibor2
Galarneau, Alexis0
Seyboth Wild, Thiago0
McDonald, Mackenzie2
Virtanen, Otto2
Pinnington Jones, Jack1
Skatov, Timofey0
Dimitrov, Grigor2
Jacquet, Kyrian1
Dougaz, Aziz2
Guerrieri, Andrea2
Schwaerzler, Joel1
Bu, Yunchaokete2
Gojo, Borna0
Cina, Federico2
Dellien, Hugo1
Piros, Zsombor2
Glinka, Daniil1
Budkov Kjaer, Nicolai0
O'Connell, Christopher2
Draxl, Liam2
Johnson, Andrew0
Schoolkate, Tristan2
Hong, Seongchan0
Gaubas, Vilius2
Cecchinato, Marco0
Bertola, Remy1
Wendelken, Harry2
Rocha, Henrique1
Harris, Lloyd2
Sachko, Vitaliy1
Llamas Ruiz, Pablo2
Nishikori, Kei2
Antonius, Michael0
Sakamoto, Rei2
Muller, Alexandre0
Qualification Final
Gea, Arthur0
Basavareddy, Nishesh2
Wong, Coleman2
Lajovic, Dusan0
Gaston, Hugo2
Smith, Colton1
Fearnley, Jacob1
Rodionov, Jurij2
Rincon, Daniel0
Barrios Vera, Tomas2
Mochizuki, Shintaro0
Passaro, Francesco2
Samuel, Toby0
Garin, Cristian0
Svrcina, Dalibor2
McDonald, Mackenzie1
Virtanen, Otto0
Dimitrov, Grigor0
Dougaz, Aziz0
Guerrieri, Andrea2
Bu, Yunchaokete1
Cina, Federico2
Piros, Zsombor0
O'Connell, Christopher0
Draxl, Liam1
Schoolkate, Tristan2
Gaubas, Vilius1
Wendelken, Harry2
Harris, Lloyd2
Llamas Ruiz, Pablo0
Nishikori, Kei0
Sakamoto, Rei2

Playoff draw: gismo. For reference.

Match center
Start 02.09.2026 15:00 UTC
Market 1 13.6% @ 7.00 / 2 86.4% @ 1.10
Form 5 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Faria J 50%
💹 Market Alcaraz C 86%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Faria J - Alcaraz C

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Faria J 14.9% 50.1% Glicko contrarian
Alcaraz C 85.1% 49.9% market favourite

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 50.1% / 49.9% probabilities
Rating 1,730 / 1,797 Faria J / Alkaras K. (Isp)
RD 116 / 226 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,498-1,962 / 1,346-2,248 strength interval

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.10 Fonbet · no value · model 49.9%
1 7.00 Fonbet · weak value +250.6% · model 50.1%
Total
Over 34.5 1.87 Fonbet · line only
Under 34.5 1.93 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
1.91 52.4% 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% 2.01 49.8%
— — 1.85 54.1% —
1.87 53.5% 1.90 52.6% — 1.78 56.2%

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
9.50 10.5%
13.00 7.7%
1.03 97.1%
1.01 99.0%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
Over 34.5 1.86 53.8% 1.85 54.1% 1.87 53.5% 1.89 52.9%
Under 34.5 1.93 51.8% 1.95 51.3% 1.93 51.8% 1.89 52.9%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 3.5 1.92 52.1%
Under 3.5 1.85 54.1%
Match center
Faria J
W L W W W
2026-08-30 2026 US Open, New York, USA
Faria J Faria J 3:2 Brooksby J
2026-08-20 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Faria J Faria J 0:2 Musetti L
2026-08-18 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Faria J Faria J 2:1 Walton A
2026-08-16 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Faria J Shelton B 0:2 Faria J
2026-08-14 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Faria J Faria J 2:0 Brooksby J
4 Wins
1 Losses
1.8 Sets won
1.0 Sets lost
80% Win percentage
Alcaraz C
W W L W W
2026-08-31 2026 US Open, New York, USA
Safiullin R 0:3 Alcaraz C Alcaraz C
2026-04-14 2026 Barcelona, Spain
Alcaraz C 2:0 Virtanen O Alcaraz C
2026-04-12 2026 Monte Carlo, Monaco
Alcaraz C 0:2 Sinner J Alcaraz C
2026-04-11 2026 Monte Carlo, Monaco
Alcaraz C 2:0 Vacherot V Alcaraz C
2026-04-10 2026 Monte Carlo, Monaco
Alcaraz C 2:0 Bublik A Alcaraz C
4 Wins
1 Losses
1.8 Sets won
0.4 Sets lost
80% Win percentage

More predictions

Faria J – Alkaras K. (Isp) 02.09 Basavareddi N – Schoolkate T 01.09 Bellucci M – Piros Z 01.09 Misolich F. (Avt) – Cerundolo F 01.09 Fritz T – Blanch Darwin 01.09 Cerundolo J M – Gea A 01.09

Frequently asked questions

What does PropickAI predict for Faria J vs Alcaraz C?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Alcaraz C. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Faria J vs Alcaraz C?

Live odds for Faria J vs Alcaraz C from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

When does Faria J vs Alcaraz C start?

September 2, 2026.