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AI verdict

AI pick Lehecka J win probability ~69% confidence High best odds 1.35

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Lehecka J. Full breakdown below.

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US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge
US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge International
02.09.2026 15:00 UTC

Lehecka J vs Samuel T — Tennis prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge
US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge grass 02.09.2026 15:00 UTC Not started
02.09.2026 15:00 UTC Not started
Lehecka J
Lehecka J
Rank #19 Elo 2420
62Average Form
W L W L W W L W
Samuel T
Samuel T
Rank #110 Elo 567
73Good Form
L W W L L W W W
-:-
Coverage: grass
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Lehecka J — 69%

1 · Lehecka J ✓ Pick69.5%
market 70%
2 · Samuel T30.5%
market 30%

Model estimate: win Lehecka J 69.5%, win Samuel T 30.5%. Model favourite — Lehecka J.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick confident

Match winner — Lehecka J

Model confidence 70% ~79% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lehecka J - Samuel T September 2, 2026

Tennis math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Lehecka J. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.35 / 2 3.20

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.3% 3 books
1 ✓ Pick 70.3%
2 29.7%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Fonbet, Leon, Pinnacle). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner P1 1.37 ↓ 1.35
Winner P2 3.10 ↑ 3.20

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Lehecka J
71%
1.36
Samuel T
29%
3.46
Total
Over 38.5
50%
1.92
Under 38.5
50%
1.88

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

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Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Lehecka J Samuel T
Win % 59.1% 71.6%
Hard % 59.9% 75.9%
Clay % 56% 62.5%
Grass % 60% 40%
Deciding set % 59.5% 48.9%
Tie-breaks % 54.7% 62.5%
Titles (total) 2 11
Last 10 WLWLWWLLWW WWWWLWWWWW

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

- Country -
#19 Rating #110
24 Age 23
1.85m Height (cm) 1.91m
81kg Weight (kg) 80kg
Right Hand Right
- Seed -
grass Coverage grass
0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

Lehecka J Samuel T
Aces per match 7.94 4.30
Double faults per match 1.29 2.23
Breaks per match 2.54 3.14

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Jiri Lehecka
Rank:19 Elo: 2420
W L W L W W L W
Toby Samuel
Rank:110 Elo: 567
L W W L L W W W
Elo favourite:Lehecka J (edge +1853 Elo)

Hard

Jiri LeheckaToby Samuel
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 66.7% 14 / 21 Matches 83.3% 25 / 30 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 61.3% 19 / 31 Matches 89.1% 57 / 64 Matches

Clay

Jiri LeheckaToby Samuel
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 66.7% 6 / 9 Matches 70.0% 7 / 10 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 66.7% 6 / 9 Matches 70.0% 7 / 10 Matches

Grass

Jiri LeheckaToby Samuel
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 60.0% 3 / 5 Matches 55.6% 5 / 9 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 60.0% 3 / 5 Matches 55.6% 5 / 9 Matches

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Jiri Lehecka Toby Samuel
H2H wins 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Sets 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Wins this year 61.9% 26 / 42 Matches 72.6% 37 / 51 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 60.4% 32 / 53 Matches 81.2% 69 / 85 Matches
Current rank 19 110

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Jiri Lehecka Toby Samuel
Prize money (career) $4,062,816 USD $76,759 USD
Rating 19 110
Age 24 23
Height 1.85m 1.91m
Weight 81kg 80kg
Playing hand Right-handed Right-handed

Win percentage (match / set)

Jiri Lehecka Toby Samuel
Match Wins 62 % 73 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 66 % 76 %
Match Wins (5 Sets) 0 % 0 %
Wins in Straight Sets 38 % 55 %
Wins From Behind 20 % 33 %
Won At Least 1 Set 76 % 86 %
Set 1 Win 60 % 71 %
Set 2 Win 57 % 71 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Jiri Lehecka Toby Samuel Match total
Average Games in a Set 9.81 9.8 9.81
Over 6.5 100 % 94 % 97 %
Over 7.5 91 % 88 % 90 %
Over 8.5 80 % 69 % 75 %
Over 9.5 51 % 47 % 49 %
Over 10.5 20 % 31 % 26 %
Over 11.5 20 % 31 % 26 %

Aces

Jiri Lehecka Toby Samuel Match total
Aces Per Match 7.94 4.30 12.24
Most Aces in a match 71 % 67 % N/A
1+ 100 % 93 % 98 %
2+ 94 % 84 % 96 %
3+ 85 % 79 % 92 %
4+ 79 % 65 % 85 %
5+ 79 % 42 % 81 %

Breaks

Jiri Lehecka Toby Samuel Match total
Breaks Per Match 2.54 3.14 5.68
Over 0.5 68 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 68 % 98 % 100 %
Over 2.5 12 % 98 % 84 %
Over 3.5 6 % 0 % 84 %
Over 4.5 0 % 0 % 80 %
Over 5.5 0 % 0 % 45 %

Tie-breaks

Jiri Lehecka Toby Samuel Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.63 0.31 0.47
Over 0.5 51 % 29 % 40 %
Over 1.5 9 % 2 % 5 %
Under 0.5 49 % 71 % 40 %
Under 1.5 91 % 98 % 5 %

Double faults

Jiri Lehecka Toby Samuel Match total
Double Faults Per Match 1.29 2.23 3.52
Over 0.5 (1+) 59 % 81 % 98 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 50 % 58 % 90 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 9 % 33 % 69 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 3 % 19 % 57 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 3 % 16 % 45 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 3 % 9 % 29 %

Net points

Jiri Lehecka Toby Samuel Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 7.77 8.48 16.25
Over 4.5 (5+) 87 % 89 % 88 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 77 % 85 % 81 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 71 % 70 % 71 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 68 % 56 % 62 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 58 % 41 % 50 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 48 % 30 % 39 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 1.35 70.3% BetBoom
P2 3.20 29.7% BetBoom

Lehecka J take on Samuel T in tennis, in US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge, on 2 September 2026. The PropickAI Glicko-2 model rates Lehecka J as the favourite at around 69%. Sportsbook prices (2 books) put that result at roughly 70%.

Recent form reads: Lehecka J have 3 won and 2 lost of their last 5; Samuel T have 4 won and 1 lost of 5. Samuel T come in having won their last matches. Glicko ratings: Lehecka J 1698, Samuel T 1940, a gap of 242 points.

Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is moderate. That is a 1-point gap to the market. For reliability the safer lean is a protected market on Lehecka J (double chance, say) rather than the outright win alone. Key markers: an edge of 242 Glicko rating points, the model's 69% for Lehecka J. Read on for team stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI AI prediction. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.

Playoff draw

Tournament bracket 2026 US Open, New York, USA, Qualifying

Qualification round 1
Gea, Arthur2
Nagal, Sumit0
Chidekh, Clement2
Coria, Federico0
Mikrut, Luka2
Sanchez Izquierdo, Nikolas0
Kouame, Moise1
Basavareddy, Nishesh2
Wong, Coleman2
Moller, Elmer1
Neumayer, Lukas2
McCabe, James0
Squire, Henri1
Jorda Sanchis, David2
Kwon, Soonwoo0
Lajovic, Dusan0
Gaston, Hugo2
Justo, Guido Ivan0
Ilagan, Andre2
Boyer, Tristan1
Kym, Jerome2
Added, Dan0
Smith, Colton2
Pellegrino, Andrea1
Fearnley, Jacob2
Carballes Baena, Roberto0
Pavlovic, Luka2
Varillas, Juan Pablo1
Dedura-Palomero, Diego0
Ferreira Silva, Frederico2
Coppejans, Kimmer0
Rodionov, Jurij2
Droguet, Titouan1
Rincon, Daniel2
Lajal, Mark1
Lee, Jordan2
Den Ouden, Guy1
Olivieri, Genaro Alberto2
Prado Angelo, Juan Carlos1
Barrios Vera, Tomas2
Mochizuki, Shintaro2
Milavsky, Daniel0
Shick, Braden2
Tabur, Clement0
Passaro, Francesco2
Gill, Felix0
Martin Tiffon, Pol0
Gentzsch, Tom2
Samuel, Toby2
Maestrelli, Francesco1
Bueno, Gonzalo0
Harris, Billy2
Roncadelli, Franco0
Ymer, Elias2
Johnson, Spencer1
Garin, Cristian2
Svrcina, Dalibor2
Meligeni Alves, Felipe0
Smith, Keegan0
Galarneau, Alexis2
Brancaccio, Raul0
Seyboth Wild, Thiago2
Napolitano, Stefano0
McDonald, Mackenzie2
Virtanen, Otto2
Blanchet, Ugo0
Pinnington Jones, Jack2
Svajda, Trevor0
Skatov, Timofey2
Bailly, Gilles Arnaud0
Giustino, Lorenzo0
Dimitrov, Grigor2
Jacquet, Kyrian2
Midon, Lautaro0
Gomez, Federico Agustin0
Dougaz, Aziz2
Guerrieri, Andrea2
Holmgren, August1
Schwaerzler, Joel2
Heide, Gustavo1
Bu, Yunchaokete2
Noguchi, Rio1
Kolar, Zdenek0
Gojo, Borna2
Nardi, Luca0
Cina, Federico0
Echargui, Moez0
Dellien, Hugo2
Piros, Zsombor2
Alcala Gurri, Max0
Martinez, Pedro0
Glinka, Daniil2
Kasnikowski, Maks1
Budkov Kjaer, Nicolai2
Sakellaridis, Stefanos0
O'Connell, Christopher2
Mejia, Nicolas1
Draxl, Liam2
Daniel, Taro1
Johnson, Andrew2
Secord, Jack0
Schoolkate, Tristan2
Hong, Seongchan2
Basilashvili, Nikoloz0
Gaubas, Vilius2
Feldbausch, Kilian0
Cecchinato, Marco2
Broady, Liam0
Bertola, Remy2
Moro Canas, Alejandro0
Wendelken, Harry2
Travaglia, Stefano1
Rocha, Henrique2
Mmoh, Michael0
Tomic, Bernard1
Harris, Lloyd2
Onclin, Gauthier0
Sachko, Vitaliy2
Bolt, Alex0
Llamas Ruiz, Pablo2
Ofner, Sebastian1
Nishikori, Kei2
Antonius, Michael2
Searle, Henry0
Clarke, Jay1
Sakamoto, Rei2
Djere, Laslo0
Muller, Alexandre2
Qualification round 2
Gea, Arthur2
Chidekh, Clement1
Mikrut, Luka0
Basavareddy, Nishesh2
Wong, Coleman2
Neumayer, Lukas0
Jorda Sanchis, David0
Lajovic, Dusan2
Gaston, Hugo2
Ilagan, Andre0
Kym, Jerome1
Smith, Colton2
Fearnley, Jacob2
Pavlovic, Luka1
Ferreira Silva, Frederico1
Rodionov, Jurij2
Rincon, Daniel2
Lee, Jordan1
Olivieri, Genaro Alberto0
Barrios Vera, Tomas2
Mochizuki, Shintaro2
Shick, Braden0
Passaro, Francesco2
Gentzsch, Tom0
Samuel, Toby2
Harris, Billy1
Ymer, Elias0
Garin, Cristian2
Svrcina, Dalibor2
Galarneau, Alexis0
Seyboth Wild, Thiago0
McDonald, Mackenzie2
Virtanen, Otto2
Pinnington Jones, Jack1
Skatov, Timofey0
Dimitrov, Grigor2
Jacquet, Kyrian1
Dougaz, Aziz2
Guerrieri, Andrea2
Schwaerzler, Joel1
Bu, Yunchaokete2
Gojo, Borna0
Cina, Federico2
Dellien, Hugo1
Piros, Zsombor2
Glinka, Daniil1
Budkov Kjaer, Nicolai0
O'Connell, Christopher2
Draxl, Liam2
Johnson, Andrew0
Schoolkate, Tristan2
Hong, Seongchan0
Gaubas, Vilius2
Cecchinato, Marco0
Bertola, Remy1
Wendelken, Harry2
Rocha, Henrique1
Harris, Lloyd2
Sachko, Vitaliy1
Llamas Ruiz, Pablo2
Nishikori, Kei2
Antonius, Michael0
Sakamoto, Rei2
Muller, Alexandre0
Qualification Final
Gea, Arthur0
Basavareddy, Nishesh2
Wong, Coleman2
Lajovic, Dusan0
Gaston, Hugo2
Smith, Colton1
Fearnley, Jacob1
Rodionov, Jurij2
Rincon, Daniel0
Barrios Vera, Tomas2
Mochizuki, Shintaro0
Passaro, Francesco2
Samuel, Toby0
Garin, Cristian0
Svrcina, Dalibor2
McDonald, Mackenzie1
Virtanen, Otto0
Dimitrov, Grigor0
Dougaz, Aziz0
Guerrieri, Andrea2
Bu, Yunchaokete1
Cina, Federico2
Piros, Zsombor0
O'Connell, Christopher0
Draxl, Liam1
Schoolkate, Tristan2
Gaubas, Vilius1
Wendelken, Harry2
Harris, Lloyd2
Llamas Ruiz, Pablo0
Nishikori, Kei0
Sakamoto, Rei2

Playoff draw: gismo. For reference.

Match center
Start 02.09.2026 15:00 UTC
Market 1 70.3% @ 1.35 / 2 29.7% @ 3.20
Coverage grass
Form 6 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Lehecka J 69%
💹 Market Lehecka J 70%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Lehecka J - Samuel T

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Lehecka J 70.2% 69.2% market and model agree
Samuel T 29.8% 30.8% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko69.5% · +Elo prior (weight0.30).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 69.5% / 30.5% probabilities
Rating 1,698 / 1,940 Lehecka J / Samuel T
RD 159 / 138 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,381-2,016 / 1,664-2,217 strength interval

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.20 Fonbet · no value · model 30.5%
1 1.35 Fonbet · no value · model 69.5%
Total
Over 3.5 1.55 Fonbet · line only
Over 35.5 1.60 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet Leon
1.40 71.4% —
1.50 66.7% —
1.62 61.7% —
1.85 54.1% 1.87 53.5%
2.10 47.6% —
2.65 37.7% —
— 1.90 52.6%
2.70 37.0% —
2.40 41.7% —
2.15 46.5% —
1.90 52.6% —
1.65 60.6% —
1.43 69.9% —

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.75 57.1%
2.95 33.9%
2.05 48.8%
1.38 72.5%

Total

Outcome Fonbet Leon Pinnacle
Over 3.5 — — 1.59 63.1%
Over 35.5 1.60 62.5% — —
Over 36.5 1.68 59.5% — —
Over 37.5 1.75 57.1% — —
Over 38.5 1.92 52.1% 1.90 52.6% —
Over 39.5 2.00 50.0% 1.92 52.1% —
Over 40.5 2.15 46.5% — —
Under 3.5 — — 2.51 39.8%
Under 35.5 2.20 45.5% — —
Under 36.5 2.07 48.3% — —
Under 37.5 1.95 51.3% — —
Under 38.5 1.88 53.2% 1.87 53.5% —
Under 39.5 1.72 58.1% 1.86 53.8% —
Under 40.5 1.63 61.4% — —

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 3.5 1.55 64.5%
Under 3.5 2.40 41.7%
Match center

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.44 (Betcity) · 2 3.2 (Fonbet)
Bookmaker12
Pari 1.35 3.15
Winline 1.36 3.15
Fonbet 1.35 3.2
Betcity 1.44 2.8
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Lehecka J
W L W L W
2026-08-30 2026 US Open, New York, USA
Lehecka J Lehecka J 3:1 Carreno Busta P
2026-08-18 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Lehecka J Lehecka J 1:2 Fils A
2026-08-15 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Lehecka J Lehecka J 2:1 Berrettini M
2026-08-09 2026 Montreal, Canada
Lehecka J Lehecka J 0:2 Jodar R
2026-08-06 2026 Montreal, Canada
Lehecka J Lehecka J 2:0 Blockx A
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.6 Sets won
1.2 Sets lost
60% Win percentage
Samuel T
W W W W W
2026-08-30 2026 US Open, New York, USA
Samuel T 3:0 Machac T Samuel T
2026-08-27 2026 US Open, New York, USA, Qualifying
Samuel T 2:1 Garin C Samuel T
2026-08-26 2026 US Open, New York, USA, Qualifying
Samuel T 2:1 Harris B Samuel T
2026-08-24 2026 US Open, New York, USA, Qualifying
Samuel T 2:1 Maestrelli F Samuel T
2026-07-29 2026 Vancouver, Canada
Pinnington Jones J 0:2 Samuel T Samuel T
5 Wins
0 Losses
2.2 Sets won
0.6 Sets lost
100% Win percentage

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Frequently asked questions

What does PropickAI predict for Lehecka J vs Samuel T?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Lehecka J. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Lehecka J vs Samuel T?

Live odds for Lehecka J vs Samuel T from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

When does Lehecka J vs Samuel T start?

September 2, 2026.