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AI verdict

AI pick Rublev A win probability ~58% confidence Medium best odds 1.63

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Rublev A. Full breakdown below.

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US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge
US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge International
02.09.2026 15:00 UTC

Merida Aguilar D vs Rublev A — Tennis prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge
US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge grass 02.09.2026 15:00 UTC Not started
02.09.2026 15:00 UTC Not started
Merida Aguilar D
Merida Aguilar D
Rank #24 Elo 2080
64Average Form
W L W L L W W W
Rublev A
Rublev A
Rank #39 Elo 1157
66Average Form
L L W W W W W W
-:-
Coverage: grass
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Rublev A — 58%

1 · Merida Aguilar D41.7%
market 41%
2 · Rublev A58.3%
market 59%

Model estimate: win Merida Aguilar D 41.7%, win Rublev A 58.3%. Model favourite — Rublev A.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Merida Aguilar D - Rublev A September 2, 2026

Tennis math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Rublev A. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 2.30 / 2 1.63

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.3% 4 books · best price +1.2%
1 41.2%
2 58.8%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner P1 2.55 ↓ 2.30
Winner P2 1.52 ↑ 1.63

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Merida Aguilar D
41%
2.40
Rublev A
59%
1.63
Total
Over 37.5
50%
1.90
Under 37.5
50%
1.92

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

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Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Merida Aguilar D Rublev A
Win % 61.3% 64%
Hard % 60.3% 63.5%
Clay % 62.4% 65.8%
Grass % 33.3% 62.2%
Deciding set % 59.8% 60.1%
Tie-breaks % 48.3% 49.8%
Titles (total) 8 18
Last 10 WLWWLWWWWL LWLLWWWWWL

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

- Country -
#24 Rating #39
28 Age 21
1.88m Height (cm) 1.88m
75kg Weight (kg) 80kg
Right Hand Right
- Seed -
grass Coverage grass
0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

Merida Aguilar D Rublev A
Aces per match 6.94 3.11
Double faults per match 2.53 2.62
Breaks per match 1.64 2.48

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Andrey Rublev
Rank:24 Elo: 2080
W L W L L W W W
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Rank:39 Elo: 1157
L L W W W W W W
Elo favourite:Rublev A (edge +923 Elo)

Hard

Andrey RublevDaniel Merida Aguilar
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 58.8% 10 / 17 Matches 70.4% 19 / 27 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 48.0% 12 / 25 Matches 66.7% 22 / 33 Matches

Clay

Andrey RublevDaniel Merida Aguilar
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 72.2% 13 / 18 Matches 71.4% 20 / 28 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 72.2% 13 / 18 Matches 67.4% 29 / 43 Matches

Grass

Andrey RublevDaniel Merida Aguilar
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 0.0% 0 / 1 Matches 0.0% 0 / 1 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 0.0% 0 / 1 Matches 0.0% 0 / 1 Matches

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Andrey Rublev Daniel Merida Aguilar
H2H wins 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Sets 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Wins this year 63.6% 28 / 44 Matches 65.6% 40 / 61 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 57.7% 30 / 52 Matches 63.4% 52 / 82 Matches
Current rank 24 39

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Andrey Rublev Daniel Merida Aguilar
Prize money (career) $30,450,868 USD $79,610 USD
Rating 24 39
Age 28 21
Height 1.88m 1.88m
Weight 75kg 80kg
Playing hand Right-handed Right-handed

Win percentage (match / set)

Andrey Rublev Daniel Merida Aguilar
Match Wins 64 % 66 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 64 % 70 %
Match Wins (5 Sets) 71 % 0 %
Wins in Straight Sets 39 % 39 %
Wins From Behind 20 % 26 %
Won At Least 1 Set 80 % 84 %
Set 1 Win 64 % 61 %
Set 2 Win 52 % 61 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Andrey Rublev Daniel Merida Aguilar Match total
Average Games in a Set 9.89 9.31 9.6
Over 6.5 100 % 95 % 98 %
Over 7.5 94 % 84 % 89 %
Over 8.5 81 % 71 % 76 %
Over 9.5 53 % 36 % 45 %
Over 10.5 25 % 18 % 22 %
Over 11.5 25 % 18 % 22 %

Aces

Andrey Rublev Daniel Merida Aguilar Match total
Aces Per Match 6.94 3.11 10.05
Most Aces in a match 58 % 48 % N/A
1+ 100 % 89 % 98 %
2+ 83 % 73 % 94 %
3+ 78 % 54 % 89 %
4+ 78 % 30 % 76 %
5+ 64 % 18 % 66 %

Breaks

Andrey Rublev Daniel Merida Aguilar Match total
Breaks Per Match 1.64 2.48 4.12
Over 0.5 44 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 42 % 50 % 72 %
Over 2.5 33 % 50 % 43 %
Over 3.5 28 % 48 % 40 %
Over 4.5 6 % 48 % 38 %
Over 5.5 0 % 5 % 36 %

Tie-breaks

Andrey Rublev Daniel Merida Aguilar Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.47 0.23 0.35
Over 0.5 36 % 21 % 29 %
Over 1.5 8 % 2 % 5 %
Under 0.5 64 % 79 % 29 %
Under 1.5 92 % 98 % 5 %

Double faults

Andrey Rublev Daniel Merida Aguilar Match total
Double Faults Per Match 2.53 2.62 5.15
Over 0.5 (1+) 89 % 84 % 98 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 67 % 66 % 90 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 36 % 46 % 80 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 19 % 27 % 66 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 11 % 14 % 51 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 8 % 11 % 38 %

Net points

Andrey Rublev Daniel Merida Aguilar Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 6.12 6.58 12.7
Over 4.5 (5+) 67 % 33 % 50 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 53 % 20 % 37 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 50 % 11 % 31 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 37 % 7 % 22 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 33 % 7 % 20 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 30 % 4 % 17 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 2.40 40.5% BetBoom
P2 1.63 59.6% BetBoom

Merida Aguilar D take on Rublev A in tennis, in US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge, on 2 September 2026. Our Glicko-2 rating model leans to Rublev A: roughly 58% to win. The bookmaker consensus (4 books) implies about 59% for the same outcome.

Latest form: Merida Aguilar D 3 won and 2 lost; Rublev A 1 won and 4 lost. On the Glicko scale it is 1859 for Merida Aguilar D against 1725 for Rublev A - a gap of 134 points.

Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is moderate. That is a 1-point gap to the market. The favourite's edge is moderate, so a protective market (double chance or draw-no-bet) is steadier than a single outright bet. Key markers: an edge of 134 Glicko rating points, the model's 58% for Rublev A. Read on for team stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI AI prediction. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.

Playoff draw

Tournament bracket 2026 US Open, New York, USA, Qualifying

Qualification round 1
Gea, Arthur2
Nagal, Sumit0
Chidekh, Clement2
Coria, Federico0
Mikrut, Luka2
Sanchez Izquierdo, Nikolas0
Kouame, Moise1
Basavareddy, Nishesh2
Wong, Coleman2
Moller, Elmer1
Neumayer, Lukas2
McCabe, James0
Squire, Henri1
Jorda Sanchis, David2
Kwon, Soonwoo0
Lajovic, Dusan0
Gaston, Hugo2
Justo, Guido Ivan0
Ilagan, Andre2
Boyer, Tristan1
Kym, Jerome2
Added, Dan0
Smith, Colton2
Pellegrino, Andrea1
Fearnley, Jacob2
Carballes Baena, Roberto0
Pavlovic, Luka2
Varillas, Juan Pablo1
Dedura-Palomero, Diego0
Ferreira Silva, Frederico2
Coppejans, Kimmer0
Rodionov, Jurij2
Droguet, Titouan1
Rincon, Daniel2
Lajal, Mark1
Lee, Jordan2
Den Ouden, Guy1
Olivieri, Genaro Alberto2
Prado Angelo, Juan Carlos1
Barrios Vera, Tomas2
Mochizuki, Shintaro2
Milavsky, Daniel0
Shick, Braden2
Tabur, Clement0
Passaro, Francesco2
Gill, Felix0
Martin Tiffon, Pol0
Gentzsch, Tom2
Samuel, Toby2
Maestrelli, Francesco1
Bueno, Gonzalo0
Harris, Billy2
Roncadelli, Franco0
Ymer, Elias2
Johnson, Spencer1
Garin, Cristian2
Svrcina, Dalibor2
Meligeni Alves, Felipe0
Smith, Keegan0
Galarneau, Alexis2
Brancaccio, Raul0
Seyboth Wild, Thiago2
Napolitano, Stefano0
McDonald, Mackenzie2
Virtanen, Otto2
Blanchet, Ugo0
Pinnington Jones, Jack2
Svajda, Trevor0
Skatov, Timofey2
Bailly, Gilles Arnaud0
Giustino, Lorenzo0
Dimitrov, Grigor2
Jacquet, Kyrian2
Midon, Lautaro0
Gomez, Federico Agustin0
Dougaz, Aziz2
Guerrieri, Andrea2
Holmgren, August1
Schwaerzler, Joel2
Heide, Gustavo1
Bu, Yunchaokete2
Noguchi, Rio1
Kolar, Zdenek0
Gojo, Borna2
Nardi, Luca0
Cina, Federico0
Echargui, Moez0
Dellien, Hugo2
Piros, Zsombor2
Alcala Gurri, Max0
Martinez, Pedro0
Glinka, Daniil2
Kasnikowski, Maks1
Budkov Kjaer, Nicolai2
Sakellaridis, Stefanos0
O'Connell, Christopher2
Mejia, Nicolas1
Draxl, Liam2
Daniel, Taro1
Johnson, Andrew2
Secord, Jack0
Schoolkate, Tristan2
Hong, Seongchan2
Basilashvili, Nikoloz0
Gaubas, Vilius2
Feldbausch, Kilian0
Cecchinato, Marco2
Broady, Liam0
Bertola, Remy2
Moro Canas, Alejandro0
Wendelken, Harry2
Travaglia, Stefano1
Rocha, Henrique2
Mmoh, Michael0
Tomic, Bernard1
Harris, Lloyd2
Onclin, Gauthier0
Sachko, Vitaliy2
Bolt, Alex0
Llamas Ruiz, Pablo2
Ofner, Sebastian1
Nishikori, Kei2
Antonius, Michael2
Searle, Henry0
Clarke, Jay1
Sakamoto, Rei2
Djere, Laslo0
Muller, Alexandre2
Qualification round 2
Gea, Arthur2
Chidekh, Clement1
Mikrut, Luka0
Basavareddy, Nishesh2
Wong, Coleman2
Neumayer, Lukas0
Jorda Sanchis, David0
Lajovic, Dusan2
Gaston, Hugo2
Ilagan, Andre0
Kym, Jerome1
Smith, Colton2
Fearnley, Jacob2
Pavlovic, Luka1
Ferreira Silva, Frederico1
Rodionov, Jurij2
Rincon, Daniel2
Lee, Jordan1
Olivieri, Genaro Alberto0
Barrios Vera, Tomas2
Mochizuki, Shintaro2
Shick, Braden0
Passaro, Francesco2
Gentzsch, Tom0
Samuel, Toby2
Harris, Billy1
Ymer, Elias0
Garin, Cristian2
Svrcina, Dalibor2
Galarneau, Alexis0
Seyboth Wild, Thiago0
McDonald, Mackenzie2
Virtanen, Otto2
Pinnington Jones, Jack1
Skatov, Timofey0
Dimitrov, Grigor2
Jacquet, Kyrian1
Dougaz, Aziz2
Guerrieri, Andrea2
Schwaerzler, Joel1
Bu, Yunchaokete2
Gojo, Borna0
Cina, Federico2
Dellien, Hugo1
Piros, Zsombor2
Glinka, Daniil1
Budkov Kjaer, Nicolai0
O'Connell, Christopher2
Draxl, Liam2
Johnson, Andrew0
Schoolkate, Tristan2
Hong, Seongchan0
Gaubas, Vilius2
Cecchinato, Marco0
Bertola, Remy1
Wendelken, Harry2
Rocha, Henrique1
Harris, Lloyd2
Sachko, Vitaliy1
Llamas Ruiz, Pablo2
Nishikori, Kei2
Antonius, Michael0
Sakamoto, Rei2
Muller, Alexandre0
Qualification Final
Gea, Arthur0
Basavareddy, Nishesh2
Wong, Coleman2
Lajovic, Dusan0
Gaston, Hugo2
Smith, Colton1
Fearnley, Jacob1
Rodionov, Jurij2
Rincon, Daniel0
Barrios Vera, Tomas2
Mochizuki, Shintaro0
Passaro, Francesco2
Samuel, Toby0
Garin, Cristian0
Svrcina, Dalibor2
McDonald, Mackenzie1
Virtanen, Otto0
Dimitrov, Grigor0
Dougaz, Aziz0
Guerrieri, Andrea2
Bu, Yunchaokete1
Cina, Federico2
Piros, Zsombor0
O'Connell, Christopher0
Draxl, Liam1
Schoolkate, Tristan2
Gaubas, Vilius1
Wendelken, Harry2
Harris, Lloyd2
Llamas Ruiz, Pablo0
Nishikori, Kei0
Sakamoto, Rei2

Playoff draw: gismo. For reference.

Match center
Start 02.09.2026 15:00 UTC
Market 1 41.5% @ 2.30 / 2 58.5% @ 1.63
Coverage grass
Form 6 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Rublev A 58%
💹 Market Rublev A 59%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Merida Aguilar D - Rublev A

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Merida Aguilar D 41.2% 41.5% market and model agree
Rublev A 58.8% 58.5% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko41.7% · +Elo prior (weight0.26).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 41.7% / 58.3% probabilities
Rating 1,859 / 1,725 Merida Aguilar D / Rublev A
RD 136 / 141 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,587-2,130 / 1,443-2,007 strength interval

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.63 Fonbet · no value · model 58.3%
1 2.30 Fonbet · no value · model 41.7%
Total
Over 37.5 1.88 Fonbet · line only
Under 37.5 1.92 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
1.91 52.4% — 1.90 52.6% 1.93 51.8%
— 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.82 55.0%
— — 1.85 54.1% —
— — 1.92 52.1% —
1.87 53.5% — — 1.84 54.4%
— 1.98 50.5% — 1.95 51.3%

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
3.25 30.8%
5.70 17.5%
1.32 75.8%
1.11 90.1%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
Over 37.5 1.87 53.5% 1.90 52.6% 1.88 53.2% 1.87 53.5%
Under 37.5 1.91 52.4% 1.90 52.6% 1.92 52.1% 1.90 52.6%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 3.5 1.50 66.7%
Under 3.5 2.50 40.0%
Match center
Merida Aguilar D
W L W W L
2026-08-30 2026 US Open, New York, USA
Merida Aguilar D Merida Aguilar D 3:0 Fucsovics M
2026-08-18 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Merida Aguilar D Fritz T 2:0 Merida Aguilar D
2026-08-16 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Merida Aguilar D Merida Aguilar D 2:0 Bergs Z
2026-08-14 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Merida Aguilar D Merida Aguilar D 2:1 Cilic M
2026-08-11 2026 Montreal, Canada
Merida Aguilar D Merida Aguilar D 0:2 Tien L
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.4 Sets won
1.0 Sets lost
60% Win percentage
Rublev A
W L W L L
2026-08-31 2026 US Open, New York, USA
Virtanen O 2:3 Rublev A Rublev A
2026-08-18 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Rublev A 0:2 Borges N Rublev A
2026-08-16 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Rublev A 2:0 Carreno Busta P Rublev A
2026-08-04 2026 Montreal, Canada
Shang Juncheng 2:1 Rublev A Rublev A
2026-07-24 2026 Estoril, Portugal
Rublev A 1:2 Van Assche L Rublev A
2 Wins
3 Losses
1.4 Sets won
1.6 Sets lost
40% Win percentage

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Frequently asked questions

What does PropickAI predict for Merida Aguilar D vs Rublev A?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Rublev A. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Merida Aguilar D vs Rublev A?

Live odds for Merida Aguilar D vs Rublev A from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

When does Merida Aguilar D vs Rublev A start?

September 2, 2026.