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World Tennis. Men. Spain
World Tennis. Men. Spain International
30.07.2026 08:00 UTC

Arce Fernandez M - Lopez Montagud C

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Lopez Montagud C — 73%

Pure model vs market (2 · Lopez Montagud C): model 48% · market 76% Δ −28 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Arce Fernandez M26.6%
market24%
2 · Lopez Montagud C ✓ Pick73.4%
market76%

Model estimate: win Arce Fernandez M 26.6%, win Lopez Montagud C 73.4%. Model favourite — Lopez Montagud C.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Arce Fernandez M - Lopez Montagud C July 30, 2026

Tennis math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Lopez Montagud C. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 3.85 / 2 1.20

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 9.3%
1 23.8%
2 ✓ Pick 76.2%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Pobeditel P1 5.80 ↓ 3.85
Pobeditel P2 1.09 ↑ 1.20

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Tennis World Tennis. Men. Spain
World Tennis. Men. Spain 30.07.2026 08:00 UTC Not started
30.07.2026 08:00 UTC Not started
Arce Fernandez M
Arce Fernandez M
Lopez Montagud C
Lopez Montagud C
-:-
Odds
P1 4.20 22.4% BetBoom
P2 1.21 77.6% BetBoom
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

- Country -
- Rating -
- Age -
- Height (cm) -
- Weight (kg) -
- Hand -
- Seed -
- Coverage -
0 H2H 0
Match center
Start 30.07.2026 08:00 UTC
Match center

Arce Fernandez M - Lopez Montagud C

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
Form Championat, Flashscore
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Overview Championat
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Arce Fernandez M 23.7% 26.6%
Lopez Montagud C 76.3% 73.4% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 26.6% / 73.4% probabilities
Rating 1,500 / 1,500 Arce Fernandez M / Lopez Montagud C
RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.20 Fonbet · no value · model 73.4%
1 3.85 Fonbet · no value · model 26.6%
Total
Over 19.5 1.86 market consensus · line only
Over 20.5 1.95 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Betcity
1.94 51.6%
1.88 53.2%
1.77 56.5%
1.82 55.0%

Total

Outcome Betcity
Over 19.5 1.86 53.8%
Over 20.5 1.95 51.3%
Under 19.5 1.84 54.4%
Under 20.5 1.76 56.8%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
4.20 23.8% 3.90 25.6% 3.85 26.0%
1.19 84.0% 1.21 82.6% 1.20 83.3%