Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1 Hernandez Carles — 77%
Pure model vs market (1 · Hernandez Carles): model 51% · market 80% Δ −29 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Hernandez Carles 77.3%, win Machado M A 22.7%. Model favourite — Hernandez Carles.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.
Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | 1.48 67.6% | |
| 1.77 56.5% | 1.77 56.5% | 1.77 56.5% | |
| — | — | 2.30 43.5% | |
| 1.94 51.6% | 1.93 51.8% | — | |
| — | — | 2.45 40.8% | |
| — | — | 1.93 51.8% | |
| — | — | 1.55 64.5% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 18.5 | — | — | 1.68 59.5% |
| Over 19.5 | 1.93 51.8% | 1.92 52.1% | 1.92 52.1% |
| Over 20.5 | — | — | 2.20 45.5% |
| Under 18.5 | — | — | 2.05 48.8% |
| Under 19.5 | 1.78 56.2% | 1.78 56.2% | 1.78 56.2% |
| Under 20.5 | — | — | 1.60 62.5% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.15 87.0% | 1.13 88.5% | 1.14 87.7% | |
| 4.70 21.3% | 5.00 20.0% | 4.60 21.7% |
Hernandez Carles
Machado M A
Fuele M
Full head-to-head historyHernandez Carles - Machado M A
The Hernandez Carles - Machado M A breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.