Who is the favourite in Mexico vs Cuba?

By the PropickAI model, Cuba is favoured — about 73% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Mexico vs Cuba?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Cuba. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

AI verdict

AI pick Mexico win probability ~73% confidence High best odds 7.70

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Mexico. Full breakdown below.

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Panamerican Cup. Mexico. Group stage

14.08.2026 02:00 UTC Match prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

14.08.2026 02:00 UTC

Finished

Panamerican Cup. Mexico. Group stage

Mexico - Cuba

Volleyball

Mexico

0 : 2

18:25 28:30

Finished

Cuba

Mexico face Cuba on August 14, 2026 in the Panamerican Cup. Mexico. Group stage.

Recent form (W-D-L): Mexico 5-0-0, Cuba 1-0-2. These sides have met 3 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 73% to win. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Mexico — 73%

1 · Mexico ✓ Pick73.1%

market 74%

2 · Cuba26.9%

market 26%

Model estimate: win Mexico 73.1%, win Cuba 26.9%. Model favourite — Mexico.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Mexico (odds1.23) Score 3:1 confidence 66% ✗ outcome missed

• Mexico: forma VVVPP (3-2)
• Cuba: forma PVPVP (2-3)
• ochnye 0-1 (za 1)
• Model backs Mexico: probability 66% vs 82% on the line (odds 1.23)
• no edge over the line (-15 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Mexico - Cuba August 14, 2026

Volleyball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Cuba.

Line favourite Fonbet: Cuba. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 7.70 / 2 1.05
Glicko: Mexico 73.1% / Cuba 26.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 8.0% 6 books · best price +521.0%

1 ✓ Pick 74.5%

2 25.5%

Odds source: consensus of 6 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner 1 1.20 ↑ 1.23

Winner 2 3.80 ↓ 3.60

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result

Mexico

75%

7.70

Cuba

25%

3.80

Total

Over 176.5

50%

1.85

Under 176.5

50%

2.10

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Standing in the tournament

League table

Mexico

#1GP 33-0

Cuba

#2GP 32-1

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

1Wins10

0.6Sets on average2.9

Head-to-head matches: 11 · average total 3.6 (sets)

Team form

Mexico

6-4LLWWWLLWWW

sets for 2.1sets against 1.5

Cuba

7-3LWWWLWLWWW

sets for 2.6sets against 1.3

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Volleyball stats

Form by set

Mexico

Last 5: 3W · 2L · sets 8:6 · 60%

2:1HDominican Republic

2:0HGvatemala

3:0HKyurasao

0:2HCuba

1:3APuerto-Riko

Cuba

Last 5: 2W · 3L · sets 9:8 · 40%

1:2HGvatemala

2:0HKyurasao

2:3HDominican Republic

2:0AMexico

2:3AColombia

Set scores in recent matches: green — win, red — loss. H — home, A — away. For reference.

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Match center

Start 14.08.2026 02:00 UTC

Market 1 12.0% @ 7.70 / 2 88.0% @ 1.05

Form 6 matches

H2H 1

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Mexico 73%

💹 Market Mexico 74%

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Match center

Mexico - Cuba

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 1 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 3/3 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Post-match / PropickAI database

Score 0:2

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

Set Mexico Cuba Result

Set 1 18 25 18:25

Set 2 28 30 28:30

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: form home - 73.1% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.068 / LogLoss 1.313

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: form home - 56.9% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.648 / LogLoss 0.842

Glicko-2: public filter Watch caution: sets and points are still being collected Data: form home - 56.9% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.648 / LogLoss 0.842

Glicko-2: precision filter Watch caution: sets and points are still being collected Data: form home - 56.9% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.648 / LogLoss 0.842

Market and Glicko

Volleyball math model. The volleyball model accounts for the winner, set score and points: 3:0 gives a stronger signal than 3:2. When data is available we separately look at serve, reception and market totals.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Mexico 74.5% 73.1% market and model agree

Cuba 25.5% 26.9%

1X2: 6 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Volleyball math model

P1 / P2 73.1% / 26.9% probabilities

Rating 1,546 / 1,490 Mexico / Cuba

RD 133 / 105 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,280-1,811 / 1,281-1,700 strength interval

The volleyball model accounts for the winner, set score and points: 3:0 gives a stronger signal than 3:2. When data is available we separately look at serve, reception and market totals.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.05 Fonbet · no value · model 26.9%

1 7.70 Fonbet · weak value +462.8% · model 73.1%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.83 Fonbet · line only

2 +0.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only

1 -0.5 1.87 Fonbet · line only

1 +0.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 133.5 1.62 Fonbet · line only

Over 134.5 1.60 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
1.88 53.2%	1.88 53.2%	—
—	—	1.85 54.1%
—	—	2.00 50.0%
—	—	3.45 29.0%
1.79 55.9%	1.78 56.2%	2.65 37.7%
—	—	2.25 44.4%
—	—	2.20 45.5%
—	—	2.15 46.5%
—	—	1.83 54.6%
—	—	1.90 52.6%
—	—	1.87 53.5%
—	—	1.80 55.6%
—	—	2.00 50.0%
—	—	1.80 55.6%
—	—	1.80 55.6%

Match winner (volleyball)

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet	Kambi BetMGM	Kambi Unibet	Leon
	1.20 83.3%	1.23 81.3%	7.70 13.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.23 81.3%
	3.80 26.3%	3.59 27.9%	1.05 95.2%	3.65 27.4%	3.65 27.4%	3.79 26.4%

Total

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
Over 133.5	—	—	1.62 61.7%
Over 134.5	—	—	1.60 62.5%
Over 135.5	—	—	1.83 54.6%
Over 137.5	—	—	1.85 54.1%
Over 138.5	—	—	1.62 61.7%
Over 139.5	—	—	1.63 61.4%
Over 141.5	—	—	2.13 47.0%
Over 145.5	—	—	1.65 60.6%
Over 146.5	—	—	1.63 61.4%
Over 149.5	—	—	1.80 55.6%
Over 150.5	—	—	1.80 55.6%
Over 151.5	—	—	1.65 60.6%
Over 153.5	—	—	1.65 60.6%
Over 154.5	—	—	1.85 54.1%
Over 177.5	1.85 54.1%	1.85 54.1%	—
Under 177.5	1.82 55.0%	1.81 55.3%	—

Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 1-0-5

2026-08-14 · Mexico 1:3 Cuba

2026-07-30 · Mexico 0:3 Cuba

2023-10-30 · Mexico 2:3 Cuba

2023-06-30 · Mexico 1:3 Cuba

2018-08-02 · Mexico 3:2 Cuba

Source: ruscore

Mexico

W W W

2026-08-12 Pan American Cup 2026

Mexico Mexico 3:1 Dominican Republic

2026-08-11 Pan American Cup 2026

Mexico Mexico 3:0 Guatemala

2026-08-10 Pan American Cup 2026

Mexico Mexico 3:0 Curacao

3 Wins

0 Losses

3.0 Scored

0.3 Conceded

100% Win percentage

Cuba

L W L

13.08 02:00 UTC World: Pan-American Cup

Cuba 1:2 Gvatemala

11.08 00:00 UTC World: Pan-American Cup

Cuba 2:0 Kyurasao

10.08 00:00 UTC World: Pan-American Cup

Cuba 2:3 Dominican Republic

1 Wins

2 Losses

1.7 Scored

1.7 Conceded

33% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head historyMexico - Cuba

Mexico

3 matches total

Cuba

Mexico: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Cuba: 3 (100%)

Biggest win Cuba 0:3 (2026-07-30) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 5 goals (3:2, 2023-10-30) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 9

9 Goals conceded 3

Match history

2026-07-30 Pan American Cup 2026

Mexico 0:3 Cuba

2023-10-30 Pan American Cup 2026

Cuba 3:2 Mexico

2023-06-30 Pan American Cup 2026

Cuba 3:1 Mexico

Mexico - Cuba

AI match prediction Mexico - Cuba August 14, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Line movement

Forecast by market

League table