Who is the favourite in USA vs Colombia?

By the PropickAI model, USA is favoured — about 86% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for USA vs Colombia?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to USA. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for USA vs Colombia?

Live odds for USA vs Colombia from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

AI verdict

AI pick USA win probability ~86% confidence High best odds 1.01

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to USA. Full breakdown below.

Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →

Full Access Go deeper than the free pick Your free pick and probability are below. Full Access adds the full 7-AI consensus, every value-edge pick, math-model probabilities and complete reports for every match.

Get Full Access →

America: World Championship - Qualification - Second Krug

31.08.2026 23:00 UTC Match prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

31.08.2026 23:00 UTC

Finished

America: World Championship - Qualification - Second Krug

USA vs Colombia — Basketball prediction

Basketball

USA

104 : 80

Finished

Colombia

USA host Colombia in basketball, in America: World Championship - Qualification - Second Krug, on 31 August 2026. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model makes USA the favourite, with a win probability of about 86%. The bookmaker consensus (2 books) implies about 87% for the same outcome.

Recent form reads: USA have 3 won and 0 lost of their last 3; Colombia have 2 won and 3 lost of 5. USA arrive on a winning run. Glicko ratings: USA 2007, Colombia 1282, a gap of 725 points.

Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is high. That is a 1-point gap to the market. For reliability the safer lean is a protected market on USA (double chance, say) rather than the outright win alone. Key markers: an edge of 725 Glicko rating points, the model's 86% for USA. Below on this page: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 USA — 86%

1 · USA ✓ Pick85.5%

market 88%

2 · Colombia14.5%

market 12%

Model estimate: win USA 85.5%, win Colombia 14.5%. Model favourite — USA.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick banker

Match winner — USA

Model confidence 92% ~91% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction USA - Colombia August 31, 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like USA.

Line favourite Fonbet: USA. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / 2 11.00
Glicko: USA 85.5% / Colombia 14.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 8.1% 3 books · best price +2.3%

1 ✓ Pick 87.6%

2 12.4%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Fonbet, Leon, Pinnacle). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result

USA

87%

1.08

Colombia

13%

11.00

Total

Over 184.5

50%

3.05

Under 184.5

50%

1.86

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Standing in the tournament

League table

USA

#22 ptsGP 11-0

Colombia

#61 ptsGP 10-1

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

1Wins1

82.5Points on average88.0

Head-to-head matches: 2 · average total 170.5 (points)

Team form

USA

8-2WLWWWLWWWW

points for 94.2points against 82.7

Colombia

4-6WLLWWLLLWL

points for 81.3points against 90.4

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Unlock the full AI analysis

Get the 7-AI consensus, math-model probabilities, value picks and full reports for every match with Full Access.

Get Full Access →

Match center

Start 31.08.2026 23:00 UTC

Market 1 91.6% @ 1.01 / 2 8.4% @ 11.00

Form 6 matches

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model USA 86%

💹 Market USA 88%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

🏦 Virtual bank $10,000

$10,000Virtual balance

Play free: you start with $10,000 in virtual money. Bet on this match at our odds, then track your profit and climb the global leaderboard. No real money, no sign-up.

Stake ($)

My virtual bank & leaderboard →

Match center

USA - Colombia

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Post-match / PropickAI database

Score 104:80

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 85.5% fact: home hit / ROI 8.0% / Brier 0.042 / LogLoss 0.156

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 64.2% fact: home hit / ROI 8.0% / Brier 0.256 / LogLoss 0.443

Glicko-2: public filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 64.2% fact: home hit / ROI 8.0% / Brier 0.256 / LogLoss 0.443

Glicko-2: precision filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 64.2% fact: home hit / ROI 8.0% / Brier 0.256 / LogLoss 0.443

Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

USA 87.1% 85.5% market and model agree

Colombia 12.9% 14.5%

1X2: 2 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model

P1 / P2 85.5% / 14.5% probabilities

Rating 2,007 / 1,282 USA / Colombia

RD 229 / 196 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,549-2,465 / 890-1,675 strength interval

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 7.24 market consensus · no value · model 14.5%

1 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 85.5%

Total

Over 176.5 1.27 Fonbet · line only

Over 177.5 1.40 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome	Fonbet
	2.45 40.8%
	2.20 45.5%
	2.02 49.5%
	1.85 54.1%
	2.65 37.7%
	2.40 41.7%
	2.18 45.9%
	2.02 49.5%
	1.85 54.1%
	2.70 37.0%
	2.90 34.5%
	2.90 34.5%
	1.87 53.5%
	1.70 58.8%
	1.88 53.2%
	1.95 51.3%
	1.85 54.1%
	1.38 72.5%

Total

Outcome	Fonbet
Over 176.5	1.27 78.7%
Over 177.5	1.40 71.4%
Over 178.5	1.53 65.4%
Over 179.5	1.55 64.5%
Over 180.5	1.95 51.3%
Over 181.5	1.75 57.1%
Over 182.5	1.67 59.9%
Over 183.5	1.88 53.2%
Over 184.5	3.05 32.8%
Over 185.5	2.70 37.0%
Over 186.5	3.10 32.3%
Over 187.5	2.70 37.0%
Over 188.5	2.20 45.5%
Over 189.5	2.45 40.8%
Over 190.5	2.75 36.4%
Over 191.5	2.70 37.0%
Over 192.5	2.35 42.6%
Over 193.5	2.55 39.2%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Fonbet	Leon	Pinnacle
	1.01 99.0%	1.08 92.6%	1.06 94.7%
	11.00 9.1%	7.60 13.2%	6.88 14.5%

Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 3-0-0

2026-08-31 · USA 104:80 Colombia

2022-11-15 · USA 88:81 Colombia

2022-08-30 · USA 95:77 Colombia

Source: ruscore

USA

W W W W L

2026-08-27 FIBA World Cup 2027, Americas Qualifiers, Group E

USA Chile 71:89 USA

2026-07-07 FIBA World Cup 2027, Americas Qualifiers, Group A

USA Mexico 93:94 USA

2026-07-04 FIBA World Cup 2027, Americas Qualifiers, Group A

USA Dominican Republic 81:82 USA

2026-03-02 FIBA World Cup 2027, Americas Qualifiers, Group A

USA USA 123:88 Mexico

2026-02-27 FIBA World Cup 2027, Americas Qualifiers, Group A

USA USA 79:87 Dominican Republic

4 Wins

1 Losses

93.4 Scored

84.0 Conceded

80% Win percentage

Colombia

L W L L L

2026-08-28 FIBA World Cup 2027, Americas Qualifiers, Group E

Mexico 112:86 Colombia Colombia

2026-07-09 FIBA World Cup 2027, Americas Qualifiers, Group C

Venezuela 86:102 Colombia Colombia

2026-07-07 FIBA World Cup 2027, Americas Qualifiers, Group C

Colombia 80:104 Brazil Colombia

2026-07-03 FIBA World Cup 2027, Americas Qualifiers, Group C

Colombia 79:81 Chile Colombia

2026-03-02 FIBA World Cup 2027, Americas Qualifiers, Group C

Brazil 101:72 Colombia Colombia

1 Wins

4 Losses

83.8 Scored

96.8 Conceded

20% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head history: USA - Colombia

USA

2 matches total

Colombia

USA: 2 (100%)

Colombia: 0 (0%)

Biggest win USA 77:95 (2022-08-30) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 172 points (77:95, 2022-08-30) most points in a game

Match history

2022-11-15 World Cup Qualification, Americas 2026

USA 88:81 Colombia

2022-08-30 World Cup Qualification, Americas 2026

Colombia 77:95 USA

USA vs Colombia — Basketball prediction

AI match prediction USA - Colombia August 31, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Forecast by market

League table

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

Team form

Unlock the full AI analysis

USA - Colombia

Match markets

Handicap

Total

Outcome (1X2)

Form & head-to-head

Match history

More predictions

Frequently asked questions