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Argentina. Torneo Federal. Quarter-finals. Best of 3
Argentina. Torneo Federal. Quarter-finals. Best of 3 International
23.07.2026 23:30 UTC Match prediction
23.07.2026 23:30 UTC
Finished

Argentina. Torneo Federal. Quarter-finals. Best of 3

Presidente Derqui - River Plate

International Basketball
Presidente Derqui
Presidente Derqui
60 : 70
Finished
River Plate
River Plate
Match signals

Two independent model estimates. Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🔒 «Formula lock»

1Presidente Derqui — 53%

The formula agrees with the market favourite in the moderate-odds zone — historically the most profitable slice (basketball/football/hockey). NOT a profit guarantee.

💎 «Value»

2River Plate — odds 2.30 · edge +3.8% · 4 bookies

The model rates the probability higher than the price implies. Elevated risk/variance; the signal is not confirmed on a large sample.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Presidente Derqui (odds1.76) Score 81:79 Over 141.5 (odds1.85) ✗ Handicap H1 -1.5 (odds1.85) ✓ confidence 53% ✗ outcome missed
  • • River Pleyt: forma PV (1)
  • • Model backs Presidente Derki: probability 53% vs 57% on the line (odds 1.76)
  • • no edge over the line (-4 pp) — informational only
  • • Total: Over 141.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
  • • at line 141.5 (odds 1.85)
  • • Handicap F1 -1.5: score forecast 81:79 (diff +2) covers the line (odds 1.85).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Presidente Derqui - River Plate July 23, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: River Plate. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 11.00 / 2 1.01

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.1%
1 8.4%
2 91.6%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 23.07.2026 23:30 UTC
Match center

Presidente Derqui - River Plate

Form 0/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form home - 55.5% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.616 / LogLoss 0.810
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form home - 52.2% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.545 / LogLoss 0.738
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.01 Fonbet · line only
1 1.64 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 126.5 1.60 Fonbet · line only
Over 127.5 1.95 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
1.81 55.3% 1.80 55.6% —
1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1% —
1.84 54.4% 1.86 53.8% —
1.82 55.0% 1.83 54.6% —
1.87 53.5% 1.85 54.1% —
1.83 54.6% 1.84 54.4% —
1.85 54.1% 1.87 53.5% —
1.91 52.4% 1.90 52.6% 1.63 61.4%
— — 1.52 65.8%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 126.5 — — 1.60 62.5%
Over 127.5 — — 1.95 51.3%
Over 128.5 — — 1.58 63.3%
Over 129.5 — — 1.70 58.8%
Over 130.5 — — 1.62 61.7%
Over 131.5 — — 1.90 52.6%
Over 132.5 — — 1.90 52.6%
Over 133.5 — — 2.25 44.4%
Over 134.5 — — 2.40 41.7%
Over 135.5 — — 2.20 45.5%
Over 140.5 1.84 54.4% 1.83 54.6% —
Over 141.5 1.92 52.1% 1.94 51.6% —
Under 140.5 1.83 54.6% 1.87 53.5% —
Under 141.5 1.76 56.8% 1.77 56.5% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
1.60 62.5% 1.66 60.2% 11.00 9.1% 1.66 60.2%
2.15 46.5% 2.10 47.6% 1.01 99.0% 2.10 47.6%
Match center
River Plate
L W
18.07 00:00 UTC Argentina. Torneo Federal
River Plate 65:67 Atletiko Kasa i Peska
12.07 23:00 UTC Argentina. Torneo Federal
River Plate 72:70 Atletiko Kasa i Peska
1 Wins
1 Losses
68.5 Scored
68.5 Conceded
50% Win percentage