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Argentina. Torneo Federal. Quarter-finals. Best of 3
Argentina. Torneo Federal. Quarter-finals. Best of 3 International
27.07.2026 23:30 UTC Match prediction
27.07.2026 23:30 UTC
Finished

Argentina. Torneo Federal. Quarter-finals. Best of 3

River Plate - Presidente Derqui

International Basketball
River Plate
River Plate
81 : 62
Finished
Presidente Derqui
Presidente Derqui
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 River Plate — 57%

Pure model vs market (1 · River Plate): model 63% · market 92% Δ −29 pp model estimates below the market

1 · River Plate ✓ Pick56.6%
2 · Presidente Derqui43.4%

Model estimate: win River Plate 56.6%, win Presidente Derqui 43.4%. Model favourite — River Plate.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1River Plate (odds1.38) Score 82:78 Over 138.5 (odds1.85) ✗ Handicap H2 +5.5 (odds1.85) ✗ confidence 63% ✓ outcome correct
  • • River Pleyt: forma VPV (2-1)
  • • Presidente Derki: forma P (0-1)
  • • ochnye 1-0 (za 1)
  • • Model backs River Pleyt: probability 63% vs 73% on the line (odds 1.38)
  • • no edge over the line (-9 pp) — informational only
  • • Total: Over 138.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
  • • at line 138.5 (odds 1.85)
  • • Handicap F2 +5.5: score forecast 82:78 (diff +4) covers the line (odds 1.85).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction River Plate - Presidente Derqui July 27, 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like River Plate.

Line favourite Fonbet: River Plate. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / 2 11.00
  • Glicko: River Plate 56.6% / Presidente Derqui 43.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.1%
1 ✓ Pick 91.6%
2 8.4%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 1.42 ↑ 1.67
Winner 2 2.65 ↓ 2.07

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 27.07.2026 23:30 UTC
Form 4 matches
H2H 1
Match center

River Plate - Presidente Derqui

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 1 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 3/1 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview
More needed
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 81:62
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 56.6% fact: home hit / ROI 67.0% / Brier 0.377 / LogLoss 0.570
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 52.6% fact: home hit / ROI 67.0% / Brier 0.449 / LogLoss 0.642
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
River Plate 56.1% 56.6% market and model agree
Presidente Derqui 43.9% 43.4%
1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 56.6% / 43.4% probabilities
Rating 1,647 / 1,048 River Plate / Presidente Derqui
RD 233 / 283 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,182-2,112 / 481-1,614 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.13 market consensus · no value · model 43.4%
1 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 56.6%
Total
Over 130.5 1.65 Fonbet · line only
Over 131.5 1.75 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
1.79 55.9% —
1.83 54.6% —
1.83 54.6% —
1.85 54.1% —
1.85 54.1% —
1.83 54.6% —
1.88 53.2% —
1.84 54.4% 1.86 53.8%
1.84 54.4% 1.86 53.8%
1.82 55.0% 1.83 54.6%
1.82 55.0% 1.83 54.6%
1.84 54.4% —
1.79 55.9% —
1.88 53.2% —

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 130.5 — — 1.65 60.6%
Over 131.5 — — 1.75 57.1%
Over 132.5 — — 1.60 62.5%
Over 133.5 — — 1.70 58.8%
Over 134.5 — — 1.55 64.5%
Over 135.5 — — 1.48 67.6%
Over 138.5 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% —
Over 140.5 1.84 54.4% 1.86 53.8% —
Over 141.5 1.88 53.2% 1.82 55.0% —
Under 138.5 1.84 54.4% 1.85 54.1% —
Under 140.5 1.83 54.6% 1.84 54.4% —
Under 141.5 1.79 55.9% 1.88 53.2% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
1.64 61.0% 1.65 60.6% 1.01 99.0% 1.61 62.1%
2.10 47.6% 2.10 47.6% 11.00 9.1% 2.18 45.9%
Match center
River Plate
W L W
23.07 23:30 UTC Argentina. Torneo Federal
River Plate 70:60 Presidente Derki
18.07 00:00 UTC Argentina. Torneo Federal
River Plate 65:67 Atletiko Kasa i Peska
12.07 23:00 UTC Argentina. Torneo Federal
River Plate 72:70 Atletiko Kasa i Peska
2 Wins
1 Losses
69.0 Scored
65.7 Conceded
67% Win percentage
Presidente Derqui
L
23.07 23:30 UTC Argentina. Torneo Federal
Presidente Derqui 60:70 River Pleyt
0 Wins
1 Losses
60.0 Scored
70.0 Conceded
0% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyRiver Plate - Presidente Derqui

River Plate
1 matches total
Presidente Derqui
River Plate: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Presidente Derqui: 1 (100%)
Biggest win River Pleyt 70:60 (23.07 23:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 130 goals (70:60, 23.07 23:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

23.07 23:30 UTC Argentina. Torneo Federal
River Pleyt
70:60
Presidente Derki