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Brazil. U20. Catarinense
Brazil. U20. Catarinense International
30.07.2026 23:30 UTC Match prediction
30.07.2026 23:30 UTC
Finished

Brazil. U20. Catarinense

ACOB Concordia U20 - Our Joinville U20

International Basketball
ACOB Concordia U20
ACOB Concordia U20
81 : 46
Finished
Our Joinville U20
Our Joinville U20
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 ACOB Concordia U20 — 77%

Pure model vs market (1 · ACOB Concordia U20): model 50% · market 79% Δ −29 pp model estimates below the market

1 · ACOB Concordia U20 ✓ Pick77.0%
market79%
2 · Our Joinville U2023.0%
market21%

Model estimate: win ACOB Concordia U20 77.0%, win Our Joinville U20 23.0%. Model favourite — ACOB Concordia U20.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction ACOB Concordia U20 - Our Joinville U20 July 30, 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like ACOB Concordia U20.

Line favourite Fonbet: ACOB Concordia U20. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.17 / 2 4.40
  • Glicko: ACOB Concordia U20 77.0% / Our Joinville U20 23.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.2%
1 ✓ Pick 79.0%
2 21.0%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 1.17 → 1.17
Winner 2 4.40 → 4.40

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 30.07.2026 23:30 UTC
Market 1 79.0% @ 1.17 / 2 21.0% @ 4.40
Match center

ACOB Concordia U20 - Our Joinville U20

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
Form Championat, Flashscore
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Overview Championat
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 81:46
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, table home - 77.0% fact: home hit / ROI 17.0% / Brier 0.106 / LogLoss 0.262
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, table home - 60.8% fact: home hit / ROI 17.0% / Brier 0.308 / LogLoss 0.498
Glicko-2: public filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, table home - 60.8% fact: home hit / ROI 17.0% / Brier 0.308 / LogLoss 0.498
Glicko-2: precision filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, table home - 60.8% fact: home hit / ROI 17.0% / Brier 0.308 / LogLoss 0.498
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
ACOB Concordia U20 79.0% 77.0% market and model agree
Our Joinville U20 21.0% 23.0%
1X2: 2 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 77.0% / 23.0% probabilities
Rating 1,500 / 1,500 ACOB Concordia U20 / Our Joinville U20
RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.40 Fonbet · no value · model 23.0%
1 1.17 Fonbet · no value · model 77.0%
Total
Over 117.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only
Under 117.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet Leon
1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1%
— 1.85 54.1%
1.85 54.1% —

Total

Outcome Fonbet Leon
Over 117.5 1.85 54.1% 1.83 54.6%
Under 117.5 1.85 54.1% 1.83 54.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet Leon
1.17 85.5% 1.17 85.5%
4.40 22.7% 4.38 22.8%